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    AL MVP/Cy Young (05/06/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    A look at how the AL MVP and Cy Young odds, how they have changed over the course of the MLB season. NL MVP and Cy Young odds coming tomorrow. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.

    The first full month of baseball has been played and with the additional information we have gather on player productivity from approximately thirty games the odds for the AL MVP and Cy Young Awards have changed. Below we look at a few players that have risen and those that have fallen as well as the current odds for all the top players.

    AL MVP

    Miguel Cabrera:

    Preseason: 7/1, Current: 2/1

    Cabrera entered the season as the second favorite to win the AL MVP after capturing last year’s Triple Crown. For an encore Cabrera has begun this season hitting .385 with six home runs, 36 RBIs and a 1.080 OPS. With runners in scoring position he is hitting .535 with a 1.448 OPS. Cabrera could become the first player to win the Triple Crown in back-to-back years.

    Chris Davis

    Preseason: N/A, Current: 5/1

    Chris Davis wasn’t on the casual fan’s radar to begin the season and as such did not have any MVP odds. Davis is raking this season hitting .327 (8th AL) with 9 home runs (1st AL) and 30 RBIs (4th AL). Davis was named American League Player of the Month for April and is now the second favorite to win the AL MVP.

    Mike Trout

    Preseason: 6/1, Current: 12/1

    Trout had one of the best rookie seasons in MLB history, as he became the youngest player ever to hit at least 20 home runs and steal at least 40 bases in a season. As such Trout was the preseason favorite to win the AL MVP. However some felt that Trout was prime for regression as his batting average on balls in play last year was an unsustainable .383. His BABIP this year is .310, league average. Trout is hitting .275 with 5 home runs and 5 steals; his odds have fallen to 8th best.

    Josh Hamilton

    Preseason: 12/1, Current: 25/1

    Hamilton signed a five-year $125 million deal with the Angels in the off-season. The start of his tenure in L.A. has gone about as bad as it could with Hamilton hitting .208 with 38 strikeouts in 31 games. What is wrong? One stat, O-Swing (the percentage of pitches outside the strike zone a player swings at), Hamilton’s 44.2% is near the bottom of the league meaning he is swinging at everything he sees.

    Current odds for top players.

    Team Preseason Odds Current Odds
    Miguel Cabrera (DET) 7/1 2/1
    Chris Davis (BAL) N/A 5/1
    Robinson Cano (NYY) 8/1 11/2
    Ian Kinsler (TEX) N/A 15/2
    Prince Fielder (DET) 15/1 10/1
    Adam Jones (BAL) 20/1 12/1
    Carlos Santana (CLE) N/A 12/1
    Mike Trout (LAA) 6/1 12/1
    Albert Pujols (LAA) 17/2 15/1
    Clay Buchholz (BOS) N/A 20/1
    Mike Napoli (BOS) N/A 20/1
    Yu Darvish (TEX) N/A 20/1
    Evan Longoria (TB) 12/1 25/1
    Josh Hamilton (LAA) 12/1 25/1
    Adrian Beltre (TEX) 18/1 33/1

    AL Cy Young

    Clay Buchholz

    Preseason: 33/1, Current: 11/4

    Buchholz is an impressive 6-0 this season with a 1.01 ERA and 47 strikeouts. Buchholz went from fringe Cy Young contender to the early favorite after an impressive start to the season that saw him win the AL Pitcher of the Month for April. Buchholz is under scrutiny as he has been accused of doctoring balls during his victory over Toronto last week.

    Anibal Sanchez

    Preseason: N/A, Current: 15/1

    Sanchez did not have odds to win the Cy Young before the season began but after posting 1.82 ERA (5th AL) with 50 strikeouts (4th AL) he has become the 7th most likely to win. Sanchez set a Tiger’s record for strikeouts in a nine-inning game with 17 against Atlanta last month.

    Jered Weaver

    Preseason: 6/1, Current: N/A

    After posting his first 20-win season a year ago, Weaver entered the season as the 3rd favorite to win the AL Cy Young. Weaver only pitched 11 innings in two games before injuring his elbow while avoiding a line drive. The third place finisher in the Cy Young voting a year ago was placed on the 15-Day DL.

    R.A. Dickey

    Preseason: 10/1, Current: 100/1

    The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner was booed off the mound last Saturday after giving up 7 earned runs in six innings. Dickey is 2-5 on the season with a 5.36 ERA. Making matters worse, the Blue Jays, preseason favorites to win the World Series, are 10-21, 9.5 games out of first in the AL East. 

    Current odds for top players.

    Team Preseason Odds Current Odds
    Clay Buchholz (BOS) 33/1 11/4
    Yu Darvish (TEX) 10/1 13/4
    Justin Verlander (DET) 6/1 5/1
    Felix Hernandez (SEA) 10/1 6/1
    Matt Moore (TB) 33/1 10/1
    C.C. Sabathia (NYY) 12/1 10/1
    Jon Lester (BOS) 33/1 15/1
    Anibal Sanchez (DET) N/A 15/1
    Doug Fister (DET) N/A 18/1
    Ervin Santana (KC) 50/1 18/1
    Max Scherzer (DET) 20/1 18/1
    Hiwashi Iwakuma (SEA) N/A 25/1
    Derek Holland (TEX) 33/1 33/1
    Jim Johnson (BAL) 33/1 33/1
    Hiroki Kuroda (NYY) N/A 33/1
    R.A. Dickey (TOR) 10/1 100/1

     

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