New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    Louisville vs. Kentucky (05/13/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    Who would win, the 2013 Louisville Cardinals or the 2012 Kentucky Wildcats? We simulated the game to find out.

    The state of Kentucky reigns supreme in college basketball with the Kentucky Wildcats and Louisville Cardinals winning the NCAA Championship in back-to-back seasons. The intense rivalry between the two programs has raised the question, which team was better? Below we review the teams and then simulate the game to determine which school has bragging rights, 2012 Kentucky Wildcats or the 2013 Louisville Cardinals.

    Teams

    2012 Kentucky Wildcats (38-2, 16-0 SEC)

    • NCAA Champions, 8th in school history
    • SEC Regular Season Champions
    • 38 victories is the most in NCAA history
    • 15th Final Four appearance and 2nd in two years
    • Consensus All-Americans: Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

    2013 Louisville Cardinals (35-5, 14-4 Big East)

    • NCAA Champions, 3rd in school history
    • Big East Regular Season Champions
    • Big East Tournament Champions
    • 10th Final Four appearance and 2nd in two years
    • 35 wins set a school record
    • Consensus All-Americans: Russ Smith

    Coaches

    Rick Pitino

    Only men’s coach in NCAA history to lead three different schools (Providence, Kentucky, Louisville) to a Final Four. Only coach in NCAA history to lead two different schools to a championship (Kentucky, Louisville). Elected into the 2013 Basketball Hall of Fame.

    John Calipari

    Led three different schools to the Final Four (UMass, Memphis, Kentucky) but UMass and Memphis were vacated by the NCAA. Only coach to have a Final Four appearance vacated at more than one school. Named National coach of the Year three times.

    Players

    Kentucky, Anthony Davis

    Davis could block shots (set a freshman record with 186), rebound, run the floor, score in the low post or face up to the basket. He led the Wildcats in scoring, field goal percentage, rebounds, steals, and blocks plus was honored with a multitude of awards including: National Player of the Year, SEC Player of the Year, Consensus All-American, and National Defensive Player of the Year.

    Player Year Min PPG RPG APG
    Anthony Davis Freshmen 32 14.2 10.4 1.3
    Doron Lamb Sophomore 31.2 13.7 2.7 1.5
    Terrence Jones Sophomore 29.3 12.3 7.2 1.3
    Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Freshmen 31.1 11.9 7.4 1.9
    Marquis Teague Freshmen 32.6 10 2.5 4.8
    Darius Miller Senior 26.1 9.9 2.8 2.1
    Kyle Wiltjer Freshmen 11.6 5 1.8 0.4

    Louisville, Russ Smith

    Smith was the offensive leader for the Cardinals averaging 18.7 points per game. In the tournament Smith increased his scoring average to 22.3 ppg. Smith was named a Third Team All-American and 1st Team All-Big East.

    Player Year Min PPG RPG APG
    Russ Smith Junior 30.3 18.7 3.3 2.9
    Peyton Siva Senior 31.2 10 2.4 5.7
    Gorgui Dieng Junior 31.1 9.8 9.4 2
    Chane Behanan Sophomore 26.1 9.8 6.5 1.1
    Luke Hancock Junior 22.4 8.1 2.6 1.4
    Wayne Blackshear Sophomore 20.1 7.6 3.1 0.6
    Montrezl Harrell Freshmen 16.2 5.7 3.6 0.2
    Kevin Ware Sophomore 16.6 4.5 1.8 0.8

    Matchups

    2012, Kentucky vs. Louisville, UK wins 69-62

    2012, Final Four, Kentucky vs. Louisville, UK wins 69-61

    2013, Louisville vs. Kentucky, UL wins 80-77

    Advantages

    Kentucky - Talent

    Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are far and away the best players on the court. Kentucky had six players drafted from their championship team with Davis and Kidd-Gilchrist going first and second overall. Louisville’s Gorgui Dieng is the highest rated draft prospect from the 2013 squad and is projected as a top 15 pick.

    Louisville – Experience

    Senior guard Peyton Siva led the Cardinals; four of the top five scorers were upper classmen. Montrezl Harrell was the only freshman that played significant minutes for Louisville. Kentucky’s team relied on freshmen and sophomores, only Darius Miller, a senior, played significant minutes.

    So what wins out, talent or experience?

    We simulated the annual Battle for the Bluegrass game with the 2012 Kentucky Wildcats against the 2013 Louisville Cardinals. Below we look at the outcome in a home and home series as well as a neutral site matchup.

    2012 Kentucky vs. 2013 Louisville, Rupp Arena

    • Kentucky wins 63.2% of the time by an average score of 61-57

    2013 Louisville vs. 2012 Kentucky, KFC Yum! Center

    • Louisville wins 60.8% of the time by an average score of 61-58

    2012 Kentucky vs. 2013 Louisville, neutral site

    • Kentucky wins 51.3% of the time by an average score of 59-58.

    These are two evenly matched teams but talent trumps experience with Kentucky defeating Louisville on a neutral site. 

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    2014 NCAA Odds (05/15/13)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    Player Pick'em Update (03/27/13)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop.

    12/15/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of December 8th - 14th one could find that all Week 15 playable against-the-spread NFL picks went 8-4 (67% ATS), highlighted by the Lock of the Week, the Denver Broncos (-4 @ San Diego), covering by more than a touchdown.

    All playable NFL ATS and O/U picks in the last three weeks are a combined 45-22 (67% ATS and O/U). And over the last nine weeks, all playable against-the-spread picks have been .500 or better each week and are 65-37 (64% ATS) overall. This mirrors last season when all playable NFL ATS picks in the second half of the season finished 71-41 (63% ATS), culminating in a 9-1-1 (90% ATS) playoff record.

    With bowls starting at the end of this week, it's important to note that highlighted, "normal" or better bowls picks for the 2013-14 season went 14-9 (61% ATS and O/U). Playable college football bowl totals are also 48-35 (58% O/U) since the site launched.

    NFL and College Basketball halftime plays continue to provided great value. All normal or better against-the-spread plays in these sports combined to go 37-28 (57% ATS). And, lastly, "normal" or better NHL plays went 20-13 (61% ML, O/U and PL), the eighth week in the last nine that has been profitable for hockey.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    College Picks - All Bowl Games
    For Bowl season in College Football, there are a total of 18 picks that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better, as well as EIGHT predicted outright upsets. See picks for the College Football Playoff.

    NFL Trends - Week 16
    NFL Week 16 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.

    FIND US ONLINE


    Statistical Information Provided by: SportsData © 2012

    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.
    Home | The Predictalator | Features | Privacy |  Customer Support |  Media Contact |  Sitemap
    © 2010-2014 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com