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    MLB Trade deadline props (07/11/2013

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    The MLB trade deadline is three weeks away. Will any of the biggest names rumored to be available be moved? MLB special: trade props. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.

    Several teams are in play as either buyers or sellers before the MLB July 31st trade deadline. So far we have seen the Dodgers acquire Ricky Nolasco from the Marlins and the Orioles secure Scott Feldman from the Cubs in hopes of bolstering each team’s respective rotations.

    Despite those early moves many pitchers are still available as the deadline approaches. So which players could be with new teams after the All-Star break? Below we look at the most likely pitchers to change uniforms. Odds provided by Bovada.lv.

    MLB Specials – Will any of these trades occur before the July 31st deadline?

    Will Matt Garza be traded?

    • Yes: -250 (1/4)
    • No: +175 (7/4)

    Why yes: Garza’s trade value is high, he has allowed four runs in his last five starts and is 4-0 with a 0.97 ERA. Garza is also a free agent at the end of the year and trading him could bring significant assets to a team trying to rebuild.

    Why no: Chicago might extend Garza before he becomes a free agent; many clubs are weary of paying the high asking price (top prospects) for Garza.

    Will Bud Norris be traded?

    • Yes: -250 
    • No: +175 

    Why yes: Norris is 28, is under contract for 2.5 more years, does not become a free agent until 2015 and is making just $3 million a year. That same $3 million makes Norris the Astros’ highest paid player and Houston has been notorious of late for trading their top earners.

    Why no: His strikeout rate is down and his WHIP is up. The Astros are looking for “volume” in prospects according to one NL executive.

    Will Jake Peavy be traded?

    • Yes: Even 
    • No: -140 

    Why yes: High upside, big name veteran that has a K/9 of 8.87 in a shallow pitchers market. He is not a rental as he has one more year left on his contract.

    Why no: Peavy is still recovering from a rib injury, his first rehab start Sunday for Double-A Birmingham. The cost to retain his services next season is $14.5 million.

    Will Yovani Gallardo be traded?

    • Yes: +150
    • No: -200

    Why yes: Gallardo is a 27-year-old starter with a 48.7% ground-ball rate this season (best of career) and under team control for two more seasons.  

    Why no: Strikeouts and velocity are down; fastball use to show on the radar gun at 94-95, now in the 89-90 range. He also has a no-trade clause that includes ten teams, many of which are contenders that may be interested in acquiring his services.

    Will Cliff Lee be traded?

    • Yes: +200
    • No: -300

    Why yes: Lee is under contract for the next three seasons and is having a great season, 10-3 with a 2.86 ERA to go along with 125 strikeouts.

    Why no: It will cost a team their top prospect and then some. Complicating matters further is Lee’s 21-team no trade clause. 

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