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    2013 MLB Odds (03/29/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    Opening Day is Sunday, we look for value in the current World Series odds.

    To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the World Series and compare that to our projected odds that they win the Commissioner's Trophy. For example, Cincinnati is listed at 12/1 to win, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on Cincinnati they would need to win the World Series 7.7% (which is 1/(1+12)) of the time. We project the Reds to win it all 9.0%, meaning there is value in placing a bet at 12/1 odds.

    Los Angeles Angels – current odds 9/1

    Last year: 89-73, 3rd AL West

    Division Win: 49%, Odds to make playoffs: 79%

    Odds needed: 10.0%, Projected odds: 12.0%

    The offense is loaded. Mike Trout might be in for a little regression after one of the best seasons by any hitter but he is still an MVP candidate. Add in Albert Pujols, the newly acquired Josh Hamilton, and Mark Trumbo for a lineup with few holes. There are some questions about the starting rotation with the departures of Zach Greinke and Dan Haren. However, Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson are a solid one-two punch. This team is built to win with offense, not its pitching, and we expect the Angels to win the AL West by 7 games.

    Cincinnati Reds – current odds 12/1

    Last year: 97-65, 1st Place NL Central, Lost in NLDS 3-2

    Division Win: 61%, Odds to make playoffs: 75%

    Odds needed: 7.7%, Projected odds: 9.0%

    The Reds look to repeat as the NL Central Champs by getting a full season out of Joey Votto (missed 51 games last year with knee injury). Cincinnati added some much needed on-base ability in Shin-Soo Choo at the top of their order and are looking for Jay Bruce to finally put it all together, more home runs and fewer strikeouts. Johnny Cueto at the front of the rotation and Aroldis Chapman in the bullpen anchor the pitching staff. A full season of Todd Frazier and super-fast Billy Hamilton could have the Reds back on top of the NL Central.

    St. Louis Cardinals – current odds 20/1

    Last year: 88-74, 2nd NL Central, Lost in NLCS 4-3

    Division Win: 36%, Odds to make playoffs: 60%

    Odds needed: 4.8%, Projected odds: 5.0%

    St. Louis was a little unlucky last season. They only won 88 games but from a run differential their total should have been closer to 93 wins. Part of the reason for this is the Cardinals record in extra-inning games (6-12) and one-run games (21-26). The Cardinals bring back the same lineup that was second in the NL in runs scored with the exception of Lance Berkman (only played 32 games). Health issues are already a concern for the Cardinals with Rafael Furcal, David Freese, and Jason Motte on the DL. However, St. Louis has prospects Oscar Taveras and Kolton Wong (plus Baseball Prospectus #1 farm system) waiting in the wings. A little luck with health should have the Cardinals in contention for the NL Central.

    Tampa Bay Rays – current odds 16/1

    Last year: 90-73, 3rd AL East

    Division Win: 36%, Odds to make playoffs: 60%

    Odds needed: 5.9%, Projected odds: 7.0%

    Tampa Bay outscored its opponents by 120 runs and missed the playoffs. Based on expected wins the Rays should have won 94 games, which would have at least given them the Wild Card. The Rays get back Evan Longoria, their best hitter that only played 74 games last year, and we expect Desmond Jennings to rebound after a sophomore slump. While James Shields' skill set cannot be replaced most of his production can be. The Rays have won 90 or more games in four of the last five seasons, expect the Rays to contend in a wide-open AL East.

    Below are the odds for each team.

    Team Current Odds Odds Needed World Series Win
    Los Angeles Angels 9/1 10.0% 12%
    Detroit Tigers 8/1 11.1% 10%
    Washington Nationals 7/1 12.5% 10%
    Cincinnati Reds 12/1 7.7% 9%
    Los Angeles Dodgers 9/1 10.0% 8%
    San Francisco Giants 12/1 7.7% 7%
    Tampa Bay Rays 16/1 5.9% 7%
    Toronto Blue Jays 8/1 11.1% 6%
    Atlanta Braves 16/1 5.9% 5%
    St. Louis Cardinals 20/1 4.8% 5%
    Texas Rangers 16/1 5.9% 5%
    New York Yankees 20/1 4.8% 4%
    Chicago White Sox 40/1 2.4% 2%
    Oakland Athletics 30/1 3.2% 2%
    Philadelphia Phillies 16/1 5.9% 2%
    Baltimore Orioles 30/1 3.2% 1%
    Boston Red Sox 30/1 3.2% 1%
    Cleveland Indians 66/1 1.5% 1%
    Milwaukee Brewers 50/1 2.0% 1%
    Arizona Diamondbacks 60/1 1.6% 0%
    Chicago Cubs 75/1 1.3% 0%
    Colorado Rockies 150/1 0.7% 0%
    Houston Astros 250/1 0.4% 0%
    Kansas City Royals 50/1 2.0% 0%
    Miami Marlins 200/1 0.5% 0%
    Minnesota Twins 100/1 1.0% 0%
    New York Mets 100/1 1.0% 0%
    Pittsburgh Pirates 66/1 1.5% 0%
    San Diego Padres 75/1 1.3% 0%
    Seattle Mariners 100/1 1.0% 0%

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