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    Opening Point Spreads (04/30/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    A look at some of the opening point spreads around the NFL as well as future odds to win Super Bowl XLVIII.

    The NFL does not kickoff for a few more months but the opening point spreads have been posted. Below we look at a few key matchups of interest.

    Thursday, September 5th

    Baltimore Ravens (+7.5) @ Denver Broncos

    The defending champions are not getting much respect as underdogs of more than a touchdown. Baltimore won as 9.5 point dogs in the Divisional Round but that was with Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Anquan Boldin. The Ravens will open on the road, rare for defending Super Bowl Champions.

    Opening spreads and results in the season opener for the defending champs since 2005.

    Year Defending SB Champs Opp/Result Spread
    2005 Patriots vs. Raiders: 30-20 Win Patriots -7.5
    2006 Steelers vs. Dolphins: 28-17 Win Steelers -1
    2007 Colts vs. Saints: 41-10 Win Colts -5.5
    2008 Giants vs. Redskins: 16-7 Win Giants -4.5
    2009 Steelers vs. Titans: 13-10 Win Steelers -6.5
    2010 Saints vs. Vikings: 14-9 Win Saints -4.5
    2011 Packers vs. Saints: 42-34 Win Packers -4.5
    2012 Giants vs. Cowboys: 24-17 Loss Giants -3.5

    Notes:

    • The defending champions have been favored in the previous 8 season openers.
    • The SB Champion won all of them except 2012.
    • The average spread was the Super Bowl Champ -4.7 points.
    • The defending champs' record Against-The-Spread was 6-2.

    Sunday, September 8th

    Oakland Raiders (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts

    A year ago the Colts opened as 10-point underdogs in Week 1. After an 11-5 playoff season, Andrew Luck and the Colts are 7 point favorites at home against the Raiders.

    Sunday, September 8th

    Green Bay Packers (+4.5) @ San Francisco 49ers 

    The Packers hosted the 49ers in last year’s season opener as 6 point favorites. Many questioned whether San Francisco could repeat their success from the previous year; a 30-22 victory in Lambeau Field silenced their critics. Green Bay has a chance to spoil San Francisco’s home opener.

    Monday, September 9th

    Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5) @ Washington Redskins 

    Robert Griffin III could miss the season opener and the Redskins are still 6.5 point favorites against the Eagles on Monday Night Football. Chip Kelly will have his work cut out for him in his NFL debut.

    Odds to win Super Bowl XLVIII

    The 49ers are the favorites at 6/1 followed by the Broncos (15/2) and Patriots (8/1). Defending Super Bowl Champions Baltimore Ravens are 20/1 while the Minnesota Vikings have the worst odds of any team to make the playoffs last season at 40/1.

    Below are the odds for all teams.

    Team Odds
    San Francisco 49ers 6/1
    Denver Broncos 15/2
    New England Patriots 8/1
    Seattle Seahawks 9/1
    Atlanta Falcons 12/1
    Green Bay Packers 12/1
    Houston Texans 18/1
    New Orleans Saints 18/1
    Baltimore Ravens 20/1
    New York Giants 20/1
    Chicago Bears 25/1
    Pittsburgh Steelers 25/1
    Dallas Cowboys 28/1
    Washington Redskins 28/1
    Philadelphia Eagles 30/1
    Cincinnati Bengals 35/1
    Indianapolis Colts 35/1
    Detroit Lions 40/1
    Miami Dolphins 40/1
    Minnesota Vikings 40/1
    San Diego Chargers 40/1
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40/1
    Carolina Panthers 50/1
    Kansas City Chiefs 50/1
    St. Louis Rams 60/1
    Cleveland Browns 75/1
    New York Jets 75/1
    Arizona Cardinals 100/1
    Buffalo Bills 100/1
    Oakland Raiders 100/1
    Tennessee Titans 100/1
    Jacksonville Jaguars 200/1

     

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