Throughout July, we will reveal a prediction involving an interesting player or team leading into the 2014 NFL season.
Prediction: The Kansas City Chiefs will miss the Playoffs
A year removed from "earning" the first overall draft choice with the league's worst record, the Chiefs leveraged a talented roster, new head coach, the benefits of a last place schedule and a change at quarterback to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth as an AFC Wild Card team. While Houston is likely to do something similar this year, look for regression from a Chiefs team that the projections suggest will finish below .500. Opening the season with nine straight wins, Kansas City played the easiest first half of the season schedule in the history of the NFL. When the competition picked up, the team faded, winning just two of its final six games. In all, Kansas City was 1-6 against teams that made the playoffs last year. The Chiefs will have a tougher schedule this season, have the best team in football within their division and have an offense that currently ranks 29th in the league in our roster talent evaluations
Technically, Kansas City makes the playoffs 16.6% of the 50,000 simulations for the season, which is just the 25th "best" chance of getting into the NFL postseason. Carolina is the only other team that made last year's postseason that is not in our most likely playoffs. The Panthers take a big step back with their own offensive woes and have just a 28.4% chance of making the playoffs. With the average postseason turning over half of its teams in the last 15 years, the next four most likely teams to miss this year's playoffs that made last year's postseason are (in order), the San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals.