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    NFL Trends Week 1 (09/02/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    NFL Week 1 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.



    Week 1 of the 2014 NFL season kicks off Thursday when Green Bay travels to Seattle. Did you know that since the current Seahawks stadium, CenturyLink Field - home of the loudest fans in the NFL, opened in 2002, the Seahawks are 61-38-5 (62% against-the-spread) at home? Or that, since 1978, there have only been 18 double-digit home favorites in Week 1? The Eagles are favored by 10 points over the Jaguars Sunday.

    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

    NFL Trends – Week 1

    Team Trend
    49ers Since Jim Harbaugh became the head coach, the 49ers as road favorites are 12-6-1 (67% ATS).
    Bears All-time, when Chicago is a favorite of +6 or more points, the Bears are 88-12-0 (88% straight-up).
    Bengals Since 2011, the Bengals are 2-5-1 (28.6% ATS) as an underdog vs. the AFC North.
    Bills Since 2004, in Bills games with a total of 47 or higher, the over is 9-5 (64% over).
    Broncos Peyton Manning as a Bronco is 23-12-1 (65.7% ATS), as a favorite he is 22-9-1 (71% ATS).
    Browns Since 1978, the Browns in Week 1 as an underdog are 5-12-1 (29.4% ATS).
    Bucs Since 2012, 35 games have had a total of 39 or fewer points, the over has gone 19-15-1 (56% over).
    Cardinals The Cardinals have only been favored twice in ten meetings with the Chargers.
    Chargers Since 2004, when Philip Rivers became the starter, the Chargers as road dogs are 26-12-4 (68% ATS).
    Chiefs All-time, the Chiefs at home as a favorite are 82-100-4 (45.1% ATS).
    Colts Since 2012, when Andrew Luck became the starter, the Colts as road dogs are 4-8 (33% ATS).
    Cowboys Since 2006, when Tony Romo became the starter, the Cowboys at home as underdogs are 6-2 (75% ATS).
    Dolphins All time, the Dolphins as underdogs vs. the Patriots are 11-26 (30% straight-up).
    Eagles Since 2002, favorites of +10 points are 134-169-2 (44.2% ATS).
    Falcons Since 2008, the Falcons as home underdogs are 6-4-1 (60% ATS).
    Giants Since 2004, when Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants as road dogs are 33-22-1 (60% ATS).
    Jags All time, the Jaguars as underdogs of +10 points are 13-10 (57% ATS).
    Jets Since Rex Ryan became the head coach, the Jets as home favorites are 14-17 (45% ATS).
    Lions In the last 5 years, the Lions as favorites of 3 or more points are 11-17 (39.3% ATS).
    Packers Since 2008, when Aaron Rodgers became the starter, the Packers as road underdogs are 12-9 (57% ATS).
    Panthers All time, the Panthers as road dogs are 66-45-3 (60% ATS).
    Patriots All-time, the Patriots are 117-95-6 (55.2% ATS) against their AFC East brethren.
    Raiders All-time, on the road as a dog between 3.5 and 6.5 pts, Oakland is 23-12-0 (65.7% ATS).
    Rams Since 2004, the Rams as favorites are 18-25 (41.9% ATS).
    Ravens Since 2008, when Joe Flacco became the starter, the Ravens as home favorites are 37-5 (88% straight-up).
    Redskins All-time, the Redskins on the road as a dog of 3 or more points are 89-65-9 (57.8% ATS).
    Saints Since 2006, when Drew Brees became the starter, the Saints are 9-7 (56% ATS) when playing Falcons.
    Seahawks Since 2002, the Seahawks are 61-38-5 at home (62% ATS).
    Steelers Since Ben Roethlisberger became the starter, the Steelers as home favorites of +6 points are 26-16 (62% ATS).
    Texans All time, the Texans vs. the NFC East are 4-7-1 (36% ATS).
    Titans All time, the Titans as dogs playing in Kansas City are 2-5 (29% straight-up).
    Vikings Since 2007, when Adrian Peterson joined the Vikings, Minnesota on the road is 24-30-4 (44% ATS).



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