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    NFL Trends Week 14 (12/03/14)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    NFL Week 14 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.



    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

    Week 14 – Situational Trends

    Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, double-digit underdogs are: 225-178-4 (56% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Bills (+10) @ Broncos and Falcons (+12) @ Packers.

    Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home underdogs of a touchdown or more are: 124-91-3 (58% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Raiders (+8) vs. 49ers.

    Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, teams that lost by 21 or more points the previous week and are home dogs are: 94-80-6 (54% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Redskins (+2.5) vs. Rams and Raiders (+8) vs. 49ers.

    NFL Trends – Week 14
    Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

    Team Spread Trend
    ATL +12 @ GB All-time, the Falcons on Monday Night Football are 10-20 (33% ATS).
    AZ -1 vs. KC Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home favorites against the Chiefs are 32-40-2 (44% ATS).
    BAL +3 @ MIA Since 2008, the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens as road dogs are 20-15-3 (57% ATS).
    BUF +10 @ DEN Bills need a win to keep Wild Card hopes alive, All-time, double-digit road dogs in Mile High are 9-47 (16%) straight-up
    CAR +9.5 @ NO Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, opponents playing in New Orleans are 31-40-2 (44% ATS).
    CHI +3.5 vs DAL All-time, the Bears on Thursday are 7-10-1 (41% ATS).
    CIN -3 vs. PIT All-time, the Bengals as home favorites against the AFC North are 22-17-1 (56% ATS).
    CLE +4 vs. IND The Browns are in the playoff race and need a win but all-time as home dogs Cleveland is 38-79 (33%) straight-up.
    DAL -3.5 @ CHI In the last 10 years, following their game on Thanksgiving the Cowboys are 3-7 (30% ATS).
    DEN -10 vs. BUF In the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos have only lost 3 games as a home favorite and are 16-7-2 (70% ATS).
    DET -9.5 vs. TB Since 2011, the Matthew Stafford era, the Lions as favorites of 7 points or more are 3-5 ATS.
    GB -12 vs. ATL All-time, the Packers at home in December are 38-25-3 (60% ATS).
    HOU -5 @ JAX In the last five years, favorites against the Jaguars are 41-25 (62% ATS).
    IND -4 @ CLE Since 2012, the Andrew Luck era, the Colts in December are 7-3 (70% ATS).
    JAX +5 vs. HOU In the last ten games following a win, the Jaguars are 2-8 (20% ATS).
    KC +1 @ AZ All-time, the Chiefs at home in December are 36-29 (55% ATS).
    MIA -3 vs. BAL Since 2012, the Ryan Tannehill era, the Dolphins at home are 13-6-2 (68% ATS).
    MIN -6 vs. NYJ In the last ten years, when the Vikings have won and covered, the next game Minnesota is 10-21-2 (32% ATS).
    NE -3.5 @ SD Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots following a loss are 26-12 (68% ATS).
    NO -10 vs. CAR Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, the Saints as home favorites of a touchdown or more are 19-15 (56% ATS).
    NYG Pick'em @ TEN Since 2005, the Eli Manning era, the Giants on the road are 50-33-2 (60% ATS).
    NYJ +6 @ MIN Since 2009, the Rex Ryan era, the Jets as road dogs of 3 or more points are 13-16-1 (45% ATS).
    OAK +8 vs. SF All-time, teams that have lost by more than 5 touchdowns the previous week are 99-79-8 (56% ATS).
    PHI -1.5 vs. SEA Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, favorites against the Seahawks are 2-10-1 (17% ATS).
    PIT +3 @ CIN Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers on the road against its AFC North brethren are 19-13-1 (59% ATS).
    SD +3.5 vs. NE Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as home dogs are 7-4 (64% ATS).
    SEA +1.5 @ PHI Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks as road dogs are 6-2-1 (75% ATS).
    SF -8 @ OAK Since 2012, the Colin Kaepernick era, the 49ers as road favorites are 12-3-1 (80% ATS).
    STL -2.5 @ WAS All-time, teams that won by 50 or more points the previous week are 3-4-1 (43% ATS).
    TB +9.5 @ DET All-time, underdogs in Detroit of 9 or more points are 12-4-1 (75% ATS).
    TEN +1 vs. NYG In the last ten years, the Titans at home are 38-46-2 (45% ATS).
    WAS +2.5 vs. STL Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, the Redskins as home dogs are 20-25-3 (44% ATS).

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