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    NFL Trends Week 6 (10/08/14)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    NFL Week 6 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.

    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

    Week 6 – Situational Trends

    All-time, teams coming off a bye and as a home dog of 3 or more points are: 51-39-2 (57% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Dolphins (+3.5) vs. Packers, Raiders (+7) vs. Chargers.

    All-time, 0-4 teams that are home dogs are 16-12-1 (57% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Raiders (+7) vs. Chargers.

    All-time, teams favored against 0-5 teams are 25-38-1 (40% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Titans (-6) vs. Jaguars.

    NFL Trends – Week 6
    Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

    Team Spread Trend
    AZ -3.5 vs. WAS Since 2004, the Cardinals as favorites of 3 or more points are 16-25-3 (39% ATS).
    ATL -3.5 vs. CHI Since 2008, the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons following a loss and as a home favorite are 9-5-2 (64% ATS).
    BAL -3.5 @ TB Since 2008, when Joe Flacco became the starter, the Ravens as road favorites are 13-10-1 (57% ATS).
    BUF +3 vs. NE Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Bills against the Patriots are 9-16-1 (36% ATS).
    CAR +7 @ CIN In the Cam Newton era, the Panthers have been dogs of 7 or more points six times and has lost every game.
    CHI +3.5 @ ATL Since 2009, the Jay Cutler era, the Bears as road dogs are 11-17 (39% ATS).
    CIN -7 vs. CAR Since 2011, the Andy Dalton era, the Bengals as home favorites of 3 or more points are 12-5-1 (71% ATS).
    CLE -2.5 vs. PIT Since 2004, the Browns as favorites against the AFC North are 2-5 (29% ATS).
    DAL +8 @ SEA Since 2005, the Tony Romo era, the Cowboys as road dogs of 3 or more points are 18-12-1 (60% ATS).
    DEN -8.5 @ NYJ In the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos as road favorites of 7 or more points are 13-7-2 (65% ATS).
    DET -2 @ MIN Since 2011, Matthew Stafford has started every game, the Lions as road favorites are 4-7-1 (36% ATS).
    GB -3.5 @ MIA Since 2008, the Packers as road favorites are 18-15 (55% ATS).
    HOU +3 vs. IND All-time, the Texans as home dogs of less than 3 points are 9-5-2 (64% ATS).
    IND -3 @ HOU Andrew Luck as a road favorite is 5-1-1 (83% ATS).
    JAX +6 @ TEN All-time, teams that start the season 0-5 and are road dogs are 22-14-1 (61% ATS).
    MIA +3.5 vs. GB All-time, the Dolphins as home dogs of 3 or more points are 23-15-2 (61% ATS).
    MIN +2 vs. DET All-time, the Vikings as home dogs of 3 or fewer points are 22-18 (55% ATS).
    NE -3 @ BUF Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots as road favorites against the AFC East are 17-12-1 (59% ATS).
    NYG +3 @ PHI Since 2005, the Eli Manning era, the Giants as road dogs of fewer than 3 points are 12-8-1 (60% ATS).
    NYJ +8.5 vs. DEN Since 2004, the Jets as underdogs of 8 or more points are 16-7-1 (68% ATS).
    OAK +7 vs. SD Since 2004, all teams as home dogs of 7 or more points are 101-81-2 (56% ATS).
    PHI -3 vs. NYG All-time, the Eagles as home favorites against the NFC East are 30-40-3 (43% ATS).
    PIT +2.5 @ CLE Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers vs. the AFC North are 37-25-3 (60% ATS).
    SD -7 @ OAK Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as road favorites are 16-21 (43% ATS).
    SF -3 @ STL Since 2011, the Jim Harbaugh era, the 49ers as road favorites are 13-7-1 (65% ATS).
    SEA -8 vs. DAL Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks as home favorites are 11-4-1 (73% ATS).
    STL +3 vs. SF All-time, the Rams as home dogs of 3 or more points are 30-51-1 (37% ATS).
    TB +3.5 vs. BAL Since 2004, teams that start the season 1-4 and are home dogs are 10-6 (63% ATS).
    TEN -6 vs. JAX Since 2004, the Titans as home favorites of 3 or more points are 18-26-1 (41% ATS).
    WAS +3.5 @ AZ All-time, teams following a Monday Night loss and as road dogs of 3 or more points are 28-19-1 (60% ATS).

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