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    NFL Trends Week 8 (10/22/14)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    NFL Week 8 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.



    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

    Week 8 – Situational Trends

    Since 2004, teams that played the previous Thursday night game and are home favorites the following week are: 30-18 (63% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-6) vs. Bears and Jets (-3) vs. Bills.

    All-time, teams that have covered against-the-spread five straight games and are road favorites are: 24-19 (56% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Colts (-3) @ Steelers.

    Since 2004, teams that lost by 21 or more points and are dogs the next week are: 175-140-9 (56% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Falcons (+3.5) vs. Lions and Panthers (+5) vs. Seahawks.

    NFL Trends – Week 8
    Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

    Team Spread Trend
    AZ -2.5 vs. PHI Since 2004, the Cardinals as home favorites of 3 or fewer points are 11-5-2 (69% ATS).
    ATL +3.5 vs. DET Since 2008, the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons as road/neutral site dogs are 14-18 (44% ATS).
    BAL +1.5 @ CIN Since 2008, the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens as road dogs of 3 or fewer points are 11-6-3 (65% ATS).
    BUF +3 @ NYJ All-time, teams that are dogs against opponents that have lost six games in a row are 22-13-1 (63% ATS).
    CAR +5 vs. SEA Since 2011, the Cam Newton era, the Panthers as home dogs are 4-7 (36% ATS).
    CHI +6 @ NE Since 2009, the Jay Cutler era, the Bears as dogs of 3 or more points are 14-21 (40% ATS).
    CIN -1.5 vs. BAL All-time, against Baltimore at home, the Bengals are 11-7 (61% ATS).
    CLE -7 vs. OAK All-time, the Browns as favorites of 7 or more points are 17-25 (41% ATS).
    DAL -9.5 vs. WAS Since 2006, the Tony Romo era, the Cowboys as favorites of 9 or more points are 9-13 (41% ATS).
    DEN -7.5 vs. SD In the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos as favorites of 7 or more points are 15-7-2 (68% ATS).
    DET -3.5 @ ATL In all London games, the designated away team has been favored in 8 of 9 games and is 5-4 (56% ATS).
    GB +1.5 @ NO Since 2008, the Aaron Rodgers era, following a blowout (a win by 21 or more points) the Packers are 7-12 (37% ATS).
    HOU -1.5 @ TEN All-time, the Texans as road favorites are 9-13-2 (41% ATS).
    IND -3 @ PIT Andrew Luck as a road favorite is 6-1-1 (86% ATS).
    JAX +5.5 vs. MIA Since 2011, the Jaguars following a win are 2-8 (20% ATS).
    KC -7 vs. STL Since 2004, the Chiefs as home favorites of 3 or more points are 12-22-1 (35% ATS).
    MIA -5.5 @ JAX In the Ryan Tannehill era, the Dolphins are 1-4 (20% ATS) as a road favorite. Miami has never been this big of a road favorite with Tannehill.
    MIN +3 @ TB In the Vikings last 10 trips to Tampa Bay dating back to 1994, Minnesota is 2-8 (20% ATS).
    NE -6 vs. CHI Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots following a Thursday night game are 5-2 (71% ATS).
    NO -1.5 vs. GB Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, the Saints as home favorites are 36-25-2 (59% ATS).
    NYJ -3 vs. BUF All-time, teams on a six game losing streak and are favorites are 13-22-1 (37% ATS).
    OAK +7 @ CLE All-time, teams that start the season 0-6 and go on the road are 1-22 (4%) straight-up.
    PHI +2.5 @ AZ All-time, teams that started the season 5-1 and are on the road are 25-39-1 (39% ATS).
    PIT +3 vs. IND Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers following a Monday Night Game are 4-8-1 (33% ATS).
    SD +7.5 @ DEN Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as road dogs of 7 or more points are 7-1-1 (88% ATS).
    SEA -5 @ CAR Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks on the road are 12-7-2 (63% ATS).
    STL +7 @ KC Since 1995, when the Rams moved to St. Louis, the team is 0-5 straight-up and 0-5 ATS vs. the Chiefs.
    TB -3 vs. MIN All-time, the Buccaneers as home favorites of 3 or more points are 53-65-5 (45% ATS).
    TEN +1.5 vs. HOU All-time, the Titans as home dogs are 54-41-3 (57% ATS).
    WAS +9.5 @ DAL Since 2006, the Tony Romo era, the Redskins are 12-4 (75% ATS) when playing the Cowboys.

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