New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
    All Live Projections

    Playoff Value (10/23/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    Which NBA team should you back to make the playoffs?

    We are less than a week away from the start of the NBA season and every team still has aspirations to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy. As such, bookmakers have set odds for each squad to make the 2015 NBA playoffs. Below, utilizing our NBA Preview, we look for value in each team reaching the postseason.

    To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to make the playoffs and compare that to our projected odds to reach the postseason. For example, Washington is listed at 1/5 to make the playoffs; in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Wizards they would need to reach the postseason 83.3% (which is 5/(1+5)) of the time. We project Washington to make the playoffs 92.5% of the time, meaning there is value in placing a bet at 1/5 odds.

    Indiana Pacers
    Odds: 1/1
    Implied Chance: 50.0%
    Projected Chance: 82.7%

    Paul George is good, really good, and if healthy he is a fringe top ten player in the league. Indiana won't have the league's best defense after losing Roy Hibbert and David West but it'll still be solid. The Pacers are 13th in our Power Rankings and the fifth most likely team in the East to reach the postseason.

    Boston Celtics
    Odds: 1/1
    Implied Chance: 50.0%
    Projected Chance: 78.9%

    The Celtics shocked everyone with 40 wins and a trip to the playoffs last year. This is a young, rebuilding team and even though it lacks a true star, another postseason run is in the cards. Plus, it's the East and a losing record can get you the same seed as a 50 win team out West.

    New Orleans Pelicans
    Odds: 5/13
    Implied Chance: 72.2%
    Projected Chance: 80.0%

    This team will go as far as Anthony Davis carries them. The Brow could win the MVP and the Defensive Player of the Year. If Davis lives up to expectations, the Pellies slide into the playoffs, even with all the preseason injuries.

    Additional teams with value: Hawks, Bulls, Cavs, Warriors, Rockets, Clippers, Grizzlies, Bucks, Thunder, Spurs, Raptors, Jazz, Wizards.

    2015 NBA Playoff Value Bets

    Team Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
    Cleveland Cavaliers 1/40 97.6% 100.0%
    Golden State Warriors 1/40 97.6% 100.0%
    San Antonio Spurs 1/40 97.6% 100.0%
    Los Angeles Clippers 1/25 96.2% 99.6%
    Houston Rockets 1/18 94.7% 99.3%
    Oklahoma City Thunder 1/40 97.6% 99.1%
    Chicago Bulls 1/20 95.2% 98.1%
    Atlanta Hawks 1/18 94.7% 95.6%
    Washington Wizards 1/5 83.3% 92.5%
    Memphis Grizzlies 1/8 88.9% 91.8%
    Toronto Raptors 1/8 88.9% 91.4%
    Indiana Pacers 1/1 50.0% 82.7%
    Milwaukee Bucks 1/3 75.0% 80.2%
    New Orleans Pelicans 5/13 72.2% 80.0%
    Boston Celtics 1/1 50.0% 78.9%
    Utah Jazz 21/20 48.8% 74.2%
    Miami Heat 1/6 85.7% 63.9%
    Phoenix Suns 9/5 35.7% 32.2%
    Dallas Mavericks 12/5 29.4% 21.7%
    Orlando Magic 5/1 16.7% 8.4%
    Detroit Pistons 12/5 29.4% 7.5%
    Sacramento Kings 5/1 16.7% 1.0%
    Portland Trail Blazers 23/4 14.8% 0.8%
    Charlotte Hornets 4/1 20.0% 0.5%
    Brooklyn Nets 10/1 9.1% 0.3%
    Denver Nuggets 15/1 6.3% 0.1%
    Los Angeles Lakers 9/1 10.0% 0.1%
    Minnesota Timberwolves 9/1 10.0% 0.0%
    New York Knicks 5/1 16.7% 0.0%
    Philadelphia 76ers 25/1 3.8% 0.0%

    Print This Article
    Know Your Scoring (10/28/15)
    All-time Lakers vs. Bulls (07/21/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!





    The Predictalator

    05/10/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now into its second month, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides and totals continue to remain extremely profitable despite a recent run of bad variance to start May. The Predictalator's record of 272-250 on sides and totals this season doesn't look all that impressive, but that's because the simulations have sided with underdogs more often than favorites. Through May 9, the Predictalator has generated $547 for an average $50 bettor. "Normal" or better sides, totals, and run lines (our strongest edges) are 14-10 (+$118) season-to-date.

    The NBA Playoffs continue on in the Second Round and the Predictalator has been profitable on both sides and totals in this year's postseason. Despite being just 16-19 (45.7%) ATS in the NBA Postseason, the Predictalator has generated $46 of total profit, which is a testament to our play value recommendations. Totals have been the real moneymaker in this postseason though, as all playabale totals are 19-15 (55.9%) for a solid profit of $168.

    The NHL Playoffs have featured some very tight lines posted by oddsmakers, which has led to lower volume for the Predictalator. That hasn't let to less profits though. The Predictalator has posted 10 NHL positions (ML, O/U, or PL) in May, going 8-2 (80%) on those positions for a profit of $87. It is rare to find a big edge in the NHL this late in the year, but the Predictalator continues to chip away on small edges to provide solid returns.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features



    MLB - The So What?
    We use 50,000 simulations of the rest of the MLB season to analyze major personnel changes, including the returns of Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays lineup.

    MLB Futures Picks - Who to bet for the World Series
    Each Monday during the 2017 season, we will review free MLB Futures value picks.



    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by