New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    NFL Trends Super Bowl (01/26/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    ­­Super Bowl betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.



    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

    NFL Trends – Super Bowl
    Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

    Since 1990, when the NFL Playoffs expanded to 12 teams, the underdog is 13-9-2 (59% ATS).

    Underdogs have covered in six of the last seven Super Bowls and have won outright in four of the last five.

    Since 1990, when the NFL Playoffs expanded to 12 teams, the OVER is 14-11 (56%).

    In that same time frame, only 5 of the 25 Super Bowls have been decided by three points or less. The current consensus line is the Patriots -1.5.

    If the line remains at -1.5, this will be the third lowest spread in Super Bowl history. The 49ers and Dolphins were -1 favorites in Super Bowl XVI and Super Bowl VII respectively.

    How often does the spread come into account in the Super Bowl? All-time, 29 of 48 Super Bowls have been within one touchdown of the final spread.

    The public loves betting the favorite and the over. The favorite has covered and the game has gone over in just 14 Super Bowls and only twice in this century.

    The NFC holds a 26-22 edge over the AFC in the Super Bowl.

    The AFC has been favored over the NFC in 22 Super Bowls. The AFC is 14-8 straight-up and 11-11 against-the-spread in those games. The AFC has failed to cover in four of the last five Super Bowls as a favorite.

    Seattle Seahawks


    Russell Wilson is 6-1 straight-up and 5-1-1 ATS in the playoffs.

    Since 1978, seven defending champions have returned to the Super Bowl the following year. Those teams went 5-2 straight-up and 4-3 against-the-spread.

    No defending champion has ever been an underdog in the Super Bowl. Teams looking to repeat have been favored on average by 8.7 points.

    Seattle is the 14th team to reach Super Bowl with the No. 1 scoring defense in the regular season. The previous 13 teams went 10-3 straight-up and 7-5-1 against-the-spread.

    New England Patriots


    Tom Brady is 3-2 straight-up in the Super Bowl but just 1-4 against-the-spread (0-4 as a favorite ATS) in the big game.

    All-time in the playoffs, when a team won by 30 or more points in the previous round, the team went 18-23-1 (44% ATS) in their next playoff game. New England beat Indianapolis by 38 points in the AFC Conference Championship.



    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    Player vs. Player Props (01/27/15)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    DEFLATE-GATE Props (01/21/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    03/27/2017 Highlight: March Madness is winding down and it was another solid month for the Predictalator. There were a total of 69 "normal" or better college hoops positions (sides and totals) in the month of March, and the Predictalator posted a strong 42-27 (60.9%) record, generating $704 in total profits. NBA has also followed suit with "normal" or better positions winning at a 58.1% clip since the beginning of February, and at a 57.9% clip for March.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB Win Totals - Over/Under Picks
    We take a look at the 2017 MLB over/under team season win totals. Highlighted, "normal" or better MLB Win Total Picks are 54-19 all-time. See free picks on the Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies and more.

    Updated Bracket Odds - Final Four
    The Predictalator simulates the Final Four 50,000 times to see how likely each remaining team is to win the NCAA Tournament

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com