New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    NFL Trends Week 11 (11/17/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    powered by Trend Machine



    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Week 11 – Situational Trends

    The Packers have lost three straight games with Aaron Rodgers for the first time since he became the full time starter in Green Bay. The last time (2008) the Cheeseheads were on a skid this long, they lost their next game and didn't cover.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Packers (Pick'em) @ Vikings.

    All-time, teams that have lost seven games in a row are 63-48-2 (57%) against-the-spread in their next game.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Cowboys (Pick'em) @ Dolphins.

    All-time, teams that started 9-0 went 12-3 straight-up and 11-4 against-the-spread in their next game.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-7) vs. Bills and Panthers (-7) vs. Redskins.

    NFL Trends – Week 11
    (Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)



    Teams Spread Trend
    ATL -6 vs. IND Since the Falcons last playoff run (2012), Atlanta is 2-9-1 against-the-spread as a home favorite.
    AZ -4 vs. CIN When Carson Palmer starts, the Cardinals as home favorites are 9-2-1 against-the-spread.
    BAL -2 vs. STL The Ravens are 1-8-1 against-the-spread in the team's last ten games as favorites.
    BUF +7 @ NE Rex Ryan is 8-4-1 against-the-spread vs. Tom Brady and the Patriots.
    CAR -7 vs. WAS The Panthers have been favored in eight games this year and are 6-2 against-the-spread in those games.
    CHI +1 vs. DEN In the last five years, the Bears are 3-10 against-the-spread as home underdogs.
    CIN +4 @ AZ The last ten teams to lose on Monday Night Football and then be road underdogs in the next game went 7-3 ATS.
    DAL Pick'em @ MIA The Cowboys have lost nine straight games when Tony Romo doesn't start. Romo is expected to be under center Sunday.
    DEN -1 @ CHI Brock Osweiler will start Sunday for Denver. Peyton Manning's backups have gone 2-14 straight-up and 6-10 ATS when starting.
    DET +1.5 vs. OAK In the last five years, the Lions as home underdogs are 1-6-1 against-the-spread.
    GB Pick'em @ MIN The Packers have been favored in 12 straight games against the Vikings, the last time Green Bay wasn't (2009) they lost and didn't cover.
    HOU +2.5 vs. NYJ On Sunday, T.J. Yates might make his first NFL start since 2011, he is 5-2 against-the-spread as a starter in his career.
    IND +6 @ ATL Matt Hasselbeck is 8-11-1 against-the-spread as a starter in his last twenty games as underdog.
    JAX -3 vs. TEN The Jags have only been favored once in the team's last 50 games (at home vs. Titans 2014), they won and covered that game.
    KC -3 @ SD The last ten times the Chiefs have won three games in a row and then were road favorites in the next game, KC went 3-6-1 ATS.
    MIA Pick'em vs. DAL Home teams facing Tony Romo are 28-38-1 (42%) against-the-spread.
    MIN Pick'em vs. GB All-time, when the Vikings have won five games in a row, Minnesota has gone 4-7-1 ATS in their next game.
    NE -7 vs. BUF Tom Brady has never lost at home as a touchdown favorite against the Bills, he is a perfect 10-0 straight-up.
    NYJ -2.5 @ HOU The Jets are just 1-4 against-the-spread in their last five games following an appearance on Thursday Night Football.
    OAK -1.5 @ DET The Raiders have only been favored on the road twice since 2012, they failed to cover both times.
    PHI -5.5 vs. TB The Eagles have lost three of their last five games as home favorites of more than a field goal.
    SD +3 vs. KC Philip Rivers has only lost five games in a row once, the last time this happened (2011) the Chargers lost their next game and didn't cover.
    SEA -12.5 vs. SF Seattle is 13-1 straight-up as double-digit favorites with Russell Wilson and have covered three straight.
    SF +12.5 @ SEA The 49ers are 1-3-1 against-the-spread since 2007 as double-digit road dogs.
    STL +2 @ BAL In ten career stars, Case Keenum is 3-6-1 against-the-spread.
    TB +5.5 @ PHI The Bucs are 7-3 against-the-spread in their last ten road games.
    TEN +3 @ JAX All-time, the Titans are 11-3-1 against-the-spread when they play on Thursday night.
    WAS +7 @ CAR Kirk Cousins has won six games in his career as a starter, each time he has lost the next game.

    powered by Trend Machine
    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    GameChangers Week 11 (11/23/15)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    GameChangers Week 10 (11/16/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    04/24/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now in full swing, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides, totals, and run lines have all been profitable to date, generating a total of $580 for an average $50 bettor. There are have been a total of nine "normal" or better positions year-to-date, and those positions are a sparkling 8-1 (88.9%), producing $393 in total profits. There is a ton of variance in baseball and there will be ups-and-downs along the way, but the early returns on the Predictalator's baseball projections are promising.

    The NBA Playoffs tipped off this week and the Predictalator is off to a stellar start. With a full season's worth of data to work with, the Predictalator has historically fared very well in the postseason across all sports, and this year has been no different. NBA playoff sides are 9-7 (56.3%) ATS, while NBA playoff totals are 15-9 (62.5%) through Sunday's action. A $50 bettor would have amassed $401 in total profits through the first week of the postseason alone.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB - The So What?
    We use 50,000 simulations of the rest of the MLB season to analyze major personnel changes, including Miguel Cabrera's injury, Cody Bellinger's call up and the Seattle Mariners' mess.

    NHL Playoff Probabilities - Updated 4/24
    We simulate the rest of the NHL playoffs 50,000 times to provide each remaining team's updated probability of reaching each level of the postseason.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com