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    NFL Trends Week 13 (12/01/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    powered by Trend Machine



    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Week 13 – Situational Trends

    The battle for New York (the game actually takes place in New Jersey) commences Sunday afternoon when the Jets and Giants square off in the Meadowlands. All-time in the series, the favorite is 3-7 against-the-spread.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Jets (-2) at Giants.

    Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home underdogs of a touchdown or greater are 133-97-3 (58%) against-the-spread.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Saints (+7) vs. Panthers and Browns (+9.5) vs. Bengals.

    All-time, teams that have won five games in a row and then are instilled as road favorites the next week have gone 44-55-1 (44%) against-the-spread.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Cardinals (-5.5) at Rams and Chiefs (-3) at Raiders.

    NFL Trends – Week 13
    (Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)



    Teams Spread Trend
    ATL +2 @ TB In Matt Ryan's career, the Falcons as road dogs against the NFC South are 3-8 straight-up and 4-7 ATS.
    AZ -5.5 @ STL All-time, Arizona as favorites in St. Louis are 2-4 against-the-spread.
    BAL +4 @ MIA All-time, the Ravens as road dogs against AFC East teams are 12-3-1 ATS.
    BUF -3 vs. HOU In the last 20 games as home favorites of a field goal or less, the Bills are 13-7 against-the-spread.
    CAR -7 @ NO All-time, teams that start the season 11-0 and play their next game on the road have gone 1-4 against-the-spread.
    CHI -7 vs. SF The Bears haven't been touchdown favorites in over two years, Jay Cutler is 9-1 straight-up in such games with Chicago.
    CIN -9.5 @ CLE Cincy has been a touchdown or greater favorite in Cleveland one time, the Bengals lost that game outright.
    CLE +9.5 vs. CIN All-time, the Browns as touchdown or greater underdogs are 62-51-2 (55%) ATS.
    DAL +4 @ WAS In the last ten years, the Cowboys are 7-3 against-the-spread following a game on Thanksgiving.
    DEN -4 @ SD The Broncos have covered eight straight games as road favorites against the AFC West, of course all of those were with Peyton Manning.
    DET +3 vs. GB In the last ten years, the Lions are 1-9 straight-up following a game on Thanksgiving.
    GB -3 @ DET Aaron Rodgers is 11-3 straight-up and 9-5 against-the-spread in his career against Detroit.
    HOU +3 @ BUF The Texans have never been underdogs after winning four straight games, Houston is 1-2-1 ATS the previous four times.
    IND +7 @ PIT The Colts are 4-0 straight-up and 3-1 against-the-spread with Matt Hasselbeck as the starter this year.
    JAX +2.5 @ TEN Jacksonville has now been an underdog in 32 straight road games, the Jags are 4-27 straight-up during the streak.
    KC -3 @ OAK All-time, the Chiefs as road favorites in Oakland are 5-2 against-the-spread.
    MIA -4 vs. BAL Ryan Tannehill is 6-10 against-the-spread in his career as a home favorite.
    MIN Pick'em vs. SEA The Vikings are 7-2-1 against-the-spread in its last ten games at home.
    NE -9.5 vs. PHI Tom Brady is 6-2-2- against-the-spread in the Patriots last ten home games as touchdown or greater favorites.
    NO +7 vs. CAR The Saints have never been a home dog of a touchdown or more in the Drew Brees era.
    NYG +2 vs. NYJ All-time, the Giants are 6-4 against-the-spread when facing the Jets.
    NYJ -2 @ NYG In the last ten games as small favorites (less than 3 points), the Jets are 3-7 straight-up and against-the-spread.
    OAK +3 vs. KC All-time, the Raiders as home dogs against the AFC West are 13-22 ATS.
    PHI +9.5 @ NE All-time, the Eagles as road underdogs of a touchdown or greater are 31-19-1 against-the-spread.
    PIT -7 vs. IND The Steelers are in the thick of the AFC playoff race, Pittsburgh is 11-3 straight-up the last five years as home favorites of a touchdown or more.
    SD +4 vs. DEN Philip Rivers is 11-6-2 against-the-spread in his career against Denver.
    SEA Pick'em @ MIN The Seahawks haven't been involved in a pick'em game since December 2000.
    SF +7 @ CHI All-time, the 49ers as road underdogs of a touchdown or more points are 26-37-2 against-the-spread.
    STL +5.5 vs. AZ The Rams are 8-2 against-the-spread in St. Louis' last ten games as home dogs against the NFC West.
    TB -2 vs. ATL Tampa Bay is in the hunt for a Wild Card, the Bucs are 8-2 straight-up in the team's last ten games as home favorites vs. the NFC South.
    TEN -2.5 vs. JAX The Titans have failed to cover as favorites in six straight games.
    WAS -4 vs. DAL The Redskins are 8-2 against-the-spread in its last ten games against Dallas.

    powered by Trend Machine


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