New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
    All Live Projections

    NFL Trends Week 4 (09/30/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    powered by Trend Machine

    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Week 4 – Situational Trends

    Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will miss four-to-six weeks with a knee injury that he suffered in the Steelers 12-6 win over St. Louis last Sunday. No Big Ben, no problem. The Black and Gold are 10-7-1 against-the-spread when Roethlisberger does not start.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Steelers (+2.5) vs. Ravens.

    All-time, teams that start 0-3 and are home favorites the next week are 8-20-1 (29% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Saints (-4) vs. Cowboys.

    All-time, teams that start 3-0 and are home favorites the next week are 39-25 (61% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Bengals (-3.5) vs. Chiefs, Broncos (-6.5) vs. Vikings, Cardinals (-6.5) vs. Rams and Falcons (-6.5) vs. Texans.

    NFL Trends – Week 4
    (Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)

    Teams Spread Trend
    ATL -6.5 vs. HOU This is the fifth time Atlanta has started the season 3-0, the previous four occasions the Falcons were 1-3 ATS in the next game.
    AZ -6.5 vs. STL With Carson Palmer, the Cardinals are favorites of three or more points are 6-1-1 against-the-spread.
    BAL -2.5 @ PIT All-time, the Ravens are 2-6 against-the-spread on Thursday Night Football.
    BUF -6.5 vs. NYG The Bills are 7-3 against-the-spread in their last ten games as home favorites of less than a touchdown.
    CAR -3 @ TB The Panthers, in the Cam Newton era, are 7-5 ATS on the road against divisional rivals.
    CHI +3 vs. OAK The Bears have covered just two of their last ten games as home underdogs.
    CIN -3.5 vs. KC This is the sixth time Cincinnati has started the season 3-0, the Bengals went 1-4 ATS in the next game the previous five years.
    CLE +7.5 @ SD The Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road games against the AFC West.
    DAL +4 @ NO Brandon Weeden has lost his last nine starts and is 0-9 ATS in those games.
    DEN -6.5 vs. MIN Peyton Manning has started 3-0 six other times in his career, he was 5-1 ATS in the next game.
    DET +9.5 @ SEA Matthew Stafford as a road dog of a touchdown or more is 0-12 straight-up and 2-9-1 ATS.
    GB -9 @ SF Aaron Rodgers as a road favorite of a touchdown or more is 4-8 ATS.
    HOU +6.5 @ ATL In the JJ Watt era, the Texans as road underdogs are 4-14 straight-up.
    IND -9 vs. JAX In the Andrew Luck era, the Colts as home favorites against the AFC South are 6-2 ATS.
    JAX +9 @ IND In the last two years, following a loss by three or more touchdowns, the Jags are 1-5 against-the-spread the next week.
    KC +3.5 @ CIN All-time, following a loss and as a road underdog the Chiefs are 58-39-1 (60% ATS).
    MIA +1.5 vs. NYJ This is the Dolphins third trip across the pond to play at Wembley Stadium, Miami is 2-0 against-the-spread in London.
    MIN +6.5 @ DEN The Vikings are 10-5-1 against-the-spread with Teddy Bridgewater as the starter (equivalent of a full season).
    NO -4 vs. DAL The Saints once-dominant home field advantage is gone, New Orleans has lost six straight inside the Superdome.
    NYG +6.5 @ BUF In the Eli Manning era, the Giants following a Thursday night game are 4-0-1 against-the-spread.
    NYJ -1.5 @ MIA In all London games, the designated away team has been favored in 9 of 11 games and are 6-5 (55% ATS).
    OAK -3 @ CHI Oakland hasn't been favored on the road since 2012. The Raiders are 0-3-1 ATS all-time in Chicago as a favorite
    PHI -3 @ WAS All-time, the Eagles as road favorites against the NFC East are 20-12-2 (63% ATS).
    PIT +2.5 vs. BAL All-time, the Steelers are 23-17-2 against-the-spread vs. Baltimore.
    SD -7.5 vs. CLE In the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as home favorites of a touchdown or more are 24-16 (60% ATS).
    SEA -9.5 vs. DET The Seahawks, in the Russell Wilson era, are 16-7-2 against-the-spread as home favorites.
    SF +9 vs. GB The 49ers haven't been home dogs of 7 or more points since 2007, San Francisco covered that game*.
    STL +6.5 @ AZ All-time, the Rams as underdogs against division opponents are 39-54 (42% ATS).
    TB +3 vs. CAR The Buccaneers are 6-14 ATS in their last twenty games as a home dog following a loss.
    WAS +3 vs. PHI All-time, the Redskins as home dogs to the Eagles are 5-9-1 against-the-spread.

    *The 49ers didn't just cover that game, San Francisco won outright 21-19 as 7 point dogs in Week 16 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

    powered by Trend Machine
    Print This Article
    GameChangers Week 4 (10/05/15)
    3-0, 0-3 NFL Teams (09/29/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!





    The Predictalator

    03/27/2017 Highlight: With the start of MLB right around the corner, we can use our ResultsFinder tool to uncover some past success in baseball. April has historically been a great month for the Predictalator, as evidenced by last season's outstanding 41-22 (65.1%) record on all "normal" or better ML, RL, and O/U plays. A $50 bettor would have profited a whopping $1,002 using our recommended wager sizes in April. MLB season win totals have also been extremely fruitful in the history of this site, with the Predictalator producing an outstanding 54-19 (74.0%) record on all playable win totals.

    Recommended Features



    MLB Win Totals - Over/Under Picks
    We take a look at the 2017 MLB over/under team season win totals. Highlighted, "normal" or better MLB Win Total Picks are 54-19 all-time. See free picks on the Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies and more.

    Updated Bracket Odds - Final Four
    The Predictalator simulates the Final Four 50,000 times to see how likely each remaining team is to win the NCAA Tournament



    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by