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    NFL Trends Week 5 (10/07/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    powered by Trend Machine



    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Week 5 – Situational Trends

    Coming off a bye, Bill Belichick usually wins (11-4 straight-up); however, the Patriots are just 1-4-1 against-the-spread in the last six years with extra time to game plan.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-9) @ Cowboys.

    All-time, teams that start 4-0 and are favorites of a touchdown or more the next week are 13-22-1 (37%) against-the-spread.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Falcons (-7.5) vs. Redskins and Packers (-9) vs. Rams.

    Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 franchises, teams coming off a bye that were home underdogs have gone 26-32-1 (45%) against-the-spread.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Titans (+2.5) vs. Bills.

    NFL Trends – Week 5
    (Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)



    Teams Spread Trend
    ATL -7.5 vs. WAS Matt Ryan is 16-1 straight-up as a home favorite of a touchdown or more but just 8-8-1 ATS in those games.
    AZ -2.5 @ DET With Carson Palmer, the Cardinals as road favorites are 5-1 against-the-spread.
    BAL -6.5 vs. CLE With extra rest following a Thursday Night Football game, the Ravens are 6-2 ATS.
    BUF -2.5 @ TEN All-time, the Bills as road favorites are 34-44-3 (44%) against-the-spread.
    CHI +9.5 @ KC With the Bears, Jay Cutler as a road dog is 10-16 ATS.
    CIN -3 vs. SEA All-time, when the Bengals have won four games in a row, Cincy is 3-9-1 ATS in the next game.
    CLE +6.5 @ BAL In the last two years, Cleveland has lost on the road 14 times and by an average of more than 9 points.
    DAL +9 vs. NE All-time, the Cowboys as home dogs of a touchdown or more are 1-14 straight-up and 6-9 against-the-spread.
    DEN -4.5 @ OAK Peyton Manning has started 4-0 six other times in his career, he was 4-2 ATS in the next game.
    DET +2.5 vs. AZ Following an appearance on Monday Night Football, the Lions are 6-12 against-the-spread.
    GB -9 vs. STL Aaron Rodgers as a home favorite of a touchdown or more is 20-12-1 (63%) ATS.
    HOU vs. IND All-time, the Texans on Thursday Night Football are 1-4-1 against-the-spread.
    IND @ HOU Andrew Luck on the road against the AFC South is 9-1 straight-up and 7-2-1 ATS.
    JAX +3 @ TB Blake Bortles has lost every game he has started as a road underdog. On the bright side, he is 5-3 ATS in those games.
    KC -9.5 vs. CHI All-time, when the Chiefs have lost two or more games in a row and are home favorites of a touchdown or more, KC is 6-2 ATS.
    NE -9 @ DAL Survivor pool pick of the week: Tom Brady as a road favorite of more than a touchdown is 20-2 (91% straight-up).
    NO +4.5 @ PHI Drew Brees as an underdog of a field goal or more is 17-11-2 against-the-spread.
    NYG -7 vs. SF Eli Manning as a favorite of a touchdown or more is 14-18 ATS.
    OAK +4.5 vs. DEN All-time, the Raiders as home underdogs against Denver are 5-10 ATS.
    PHI -4.5 vs. NO Under Chip Kelly, the Eagles following a loss and as a favorite are 3-6 ATS.
    PIT +3 @ SD When the Steelers are on road games for Monday Night Football, the UNDER is 19-11 (63%).
    SD -3 vs. PIT Philip Rivers at home on Monday Night Football is 5-2 against-the-spread.
    SEA +3 @ CIN As an underdog, Russell Wilson has a winning record and is 11-4-1 ATS but has failed to win or cover the last two times (Super Bowl and Week 2 at Green Bay).
    SF +7 @ NYG All-time, the 49ers a road dogs of a touchdown or more are 25-35-2 (42%) against-the-spread.
    STL +9 @ GB All-time, following a win and as a road dog of more than a touchdown, the Rams are 9-17-1 (35%) ATS.
    TB -3 vs. JAX In the last five years, the Bucs as home favorites are 7-12 against-the-spread.
    TEN +2.5 vs. BUF The Titans have been home dogs following a bye three times, Tennessee is 2-1 ATS in those games.
    WAS +7.5 @ ATL All-time, following a win and as a road dog of a touchdown or more, the Redskins are 14-11 ATS.

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