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    NFL Trends Wild Card (01/05/16)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    powered by Trend Machine



    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    NFL Wild Card Weekend – Situational Trends

    All-time in the Wild Card round home underdogs are 12-8 straight-up and 13-7 against-the-spread.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Texans (+3) vs. Chiefs, Bengals (+3) vs. Steelers and Vikings (+5) vs. Seahawks.

    The last ten road favorites in the playoffs have gone 6-4 straight-up and 5-4-1 against-the-spread.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Chiefs (-3) at Texans, Steelers (-3) at Bengals, Seahawks (-5) at Vikings.

    All-time in the Wild Card round, home favorites are 71-39 straight-up and 56-53-1 against-the-spread.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Redskins (-1) vs. Packers.

    The other two times there were three home underdogs on Wild Card Weekend were 1999-00 and 2008-09. Those teams combined to go 4-2 straight-up and against-the-spread.

    NFL Trends – Wild Card Weekend
    (Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)



    Teams Spread Trend
    CIN +3 vs. PIT The Bengals have failed to cover in seven straight playoff games.
    Cincinnati is 0-7 straight-up and 1-6 against-the-spread all-time as underdogs in the postseason.
    Cincy last won a playoff game in the 1990-91 season.
    All-time, the Bengals are 1-7 straight-up and 1-7 against-the-spread in the Wild Card round.
    GB +1 @ WAS The Packers are 3-7 straight-up and 5-4-1 against-the-spread in their last ten playoff games as underdogs.
    Aaron Rodgers is 6-5 straight-up and against-the-spread in the postseason.
    Rodgers and the Packers haven't won on the road in the playoffs since their Super Bowl run in 2010-11 as a Wild Card team.
    All-time, Green Bay is 2-7 straight-up and 3-6 against-the-spread vs. the NFC East in the playoffs.
    HOU +3 vs. KC Houston is 3-1 against-the-spread (2-2 straight-up) all-time in the postseason.
    The Texans are undefeated (2-0) all-time in the playoffs at home.
    Houston is 2-0 straight-up and against-the-spread during the Wild Card round.
    The Texans are 2-8 straight-up and 4-5-1 against-the-spread in their last ten games as home underdogs.
    KC -3 @ HOU Yikes! The Chiefs are 3-12 straight-up and against-the-spread all-time in the playoffs.
    Kansas City is 2-7 straight-up and against-the-spread all-time in the Wild Card round.
    KC is 0-4 against-the-spread (2-2 straight-up) as a favorite in the postseason.
    The Chiefs haven't won a road playoff game since the 1993-94 season at Houston Oilers (28-20).
    MIN +5 vs. SEA The Vikings are 6-4 straight-up and against-the-spread all-time at home in the playoffs.
    Minnesota has only been a home dog in the postseason once, they lost 26-14 to the Eagles in 2009 and failed to cover.
    The Vikings are 4-6 straight-up and against-the-spread in their last ten Wild Card games.
    Adrian Peterson has averaged less than four yards/carry and is 1-3 straight-up (2-2 against-the-spread) in his playoff career.
    PIT -3 @ CIN All-time, the Steelers as road favorites in the playoffs are 3-1 straight-up and 2-2 against-the-spread.
    All-time, Pittsburgh is 6-1 straight-up and 5-2 against-the-spread vs. divisional opponents in the postseason.
    Ben Roethlisberger is 10-5 straight-up and 9-6 against-the-spread in his playoff career.
    Roethlisberger has been even better as a favorite going 8-2 straight-up and 6-4 against-the-spread.
    SEA -5 @ MIN All-time, the Seahawks are 3-10 straight-up and 6-7 against-the-spread on the road/neutral field in the postseason.
    Russell Wilson is 6-2 straight-up and 5-2-1 against-the-spread in his playoff career.
    Wilson has never lost a postseason game as a favorite (5-0 straight-up) and is 3-1-1 against-the-spread in those games.
    Seattle has won four straight Wild Card games and went 3-1 against-the-spread in those contests.
    WAS -1 vs. GB All-time, Washington is 18-9 straight-up and 19-8 against-the-spread in the playoffs.
    However, since the team's last Super Bowl (1991-92), Washington is 3-5 straight-up in the postseason (5-3 ATS).
    Washington has won six straight (6-0 ATS) as home favorites in the playoffs.
    Washington is 6-2 straight-up and against-the-spread all-time in the Wild Card round.

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