New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
    All Live Projections

    March Value Bets (03/14/16)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    Bet the favorites to win March Madness.

    The madness is about to begin but before the first game tips, we are going to tell you which teams are worth betting to win the NCAA Tournament.

    To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win March Madness and compare that to our projected odds that they win the National Championship. For example, Oregon is listed at 14/1 to win the title, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Ducks they would need to cut down the nets 6.7% (which is 1/(1+14)) of the time. We project Oregon to win it all 7.5% of the time, meaning there is value in placing a bet at 14/1 odds.

    Michigan State Spartans
    Current odds: 11/2, Chance needed in order to place a wager: 15.4%
    MSU wins the tournament 19.8% of the time

    Around 20 percent of all the money coming in on tournament futures is on Michigan State, per Kevin Bradley at It isn't always wise to follow the crowd, but in this case the squares and sharps alike are on Sparty to win it all. MSU is the No. 1 team in our Power Rankings and our most likely champion.

    Kansas Jayhawks
    Current odds: 5/1, Chance needed in order to place a wager: 16.7%
    Kansas wins the tournament 18.8% of the time

    A lot of people are excited about this Kansas team including Wayne Selden Jr.'s uncle.

    The Jayhawks enter the tournament as the betting favorite, having won 14 straight games including the Big 12 regular season and conference titles. Bill Self's team is one of just three in the nation to rank in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

    Virginia Cavaliers
    Current odds: 12/1, Chance needed in order to place a wager: 7.7%
    Virginia wins the tournament 9.5% of the time

    If you like Kansas, then you probably like the Wahoos as well. Virginia is another one of those teams we talked about ranking in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Plus UVA has Malcolm Brogdon, the ACC Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.

    Below are the odds for each team with at least a 1% chance to win the NCAA Tournament.

    Seed Team Odds Proj. Chance Proj. Chance Needed
    2 Michigan St. 11/2 19.8% 15.4%
    1 Kansas 5/1 18.8% 16.7%
    1 UNC 7/1 12.2% 12.5%
    1 Virginia 12/1 9.5% 7.7%
    1 Oregon 14/1 7.5% 6.7%
    4 Kentucky 10/1 6.1% 9.1%
    2 Villanova 18/1 5.0% 5.3%
    3 WVU 25/1 3.0% 3.8%
    2 Oklahoma 14/1 2.6% 6.7%
    3 Miami (FL) 33/1 2.4% 2.9%
    5 Purdue 33/1 2.1% 2.9%
    3 Texas A&M 33/1 1.9% 2.9%
    5 Indiana 33/1 1.6% 2.9%
    4 Iowa St. 50/1 1.3% 2.0%
    4 Duke 25/1 1.3% 3.8%
    5 Baylor 66/1 1.0% 1.5%

    Print This Article
    Bets that would have made you rich (03/15/16)
    Cinderellas/Sleepers/Busts (03/13/16)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!





    The Predictalator

    03/27/2017 Highlight: With the start of MLB right around the corner, we can use our ResultsFinder tool to uncover some past success in baseball. April has historically been a great month for the Predictalator, as evidenced by last season's outstanding 41-22 (65.1%) record on all "normal" or better ML, RL, and O/U plays. A $50 bettor would have profited a whopping $1,002 using our recommended wager sizes in April. MLB season win totals have also been extremely fruitful in the history of this site, with the Predictalator producing an outstanding 54-19 (74.0%) record on all playable win totals.

    Recommended Features



    MLB Win Totals - Over/Under Picks
    We take a look at the 2017 MLB over/under team season win totals. Highlighted, "normal" or better MLB Win Total Picks are 54-19 all-time. See free picks on the Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies and more.

    Updated Bracket Odds - Final Four
    The Predictalator simulates the Final Four 50,000 times to see how likely each remaining team is to win the NCAA Tournament



    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by