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    Wood Memorial (04/08/16)

    By Dan Zucker
    2016 Wood Memorial Race Analysis

    The Sport of Kings takes center stage Saturday as the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes (Keeneland) and featured $1mm Wood Memorial from Aqueduct Racetrack (Queens, NY) go to post between 5:30pm ET and 6:30pm ET. All the action can be seen on NBC Sports Network.

    This lightly raced field of eight has a total of only 33 starts amongst them, less than four races per horse. Add to the equation that each starter also raced during his two year-old season, and it's likely a prime spot for a brilliant effort.

    The undefeated Shagaf draws the coveted rail spot and has been made the 2/1 morning-line favorite. However he is only the fifth choice in part because of his most recent Double Top (DTOP). Defined as a lifetime best effort during two points of the race (4 furlongs and finish), the DTOP is a negative pattern and often times is followed by regression. This “bounce theory” can often be seen in sports following a top level performance.

    Outwork, breaking from the outside post is our Top Contender. Trained by the perennial leading North American trainer Todd Pletcher, Outwork owns the highest last Final Figure. A playable longshot that could outrun his odds is Tale of S'avall (20/1), who gets back his regular rider Cornelio Velasquez. A front-end monger at times, Velasquez guided “Take” to his only lifetime win.

    The Value Play picks are produced by Predicteform.com. A top-to-bottom ranking of all horses in each race based on VALUE as compared to the morning-line odds, Value Play picks does much of the handicapping work for you. For more information on how to read the Pace Figures visit Predicteform.com.


    PP Morning Line Value Horse Play Type Pattern Last Final Last 4F
    8 5/2 1 Outwork Top Contender REV 77.9 71.4
    6 3/1 2 Matt King Coal Regressor DTOP w77.4 78.4
    7 12/1 3 Dalmore Breakout REV w73.1 63.4
    4 20/1 4 Tale Of S'avall Regressor REV 72.5 62.2
    1 2/1 5 Shagaf Too Slow DTOP w72.8 78.5
    3 30/1 6 Trojan Nation Too Slow 70.3 61.3
    5 8/1 7 Flexibility Too Slow 70 63.4
    2 10/1 8 Adventist Too Slow 72.1 77.4

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