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    3 Up 3 Down (College Week 4)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    College Football Review – Week 4



    A review of the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated.

    Three Up

    TCU Horned Frogs
    2015 Record: Straight-Up 4-0, Against-the-Spread 1-3

    TCU's playoff hopes are still alive thanks to an improbable play.

    On 4th-and-goal from the four yard line with 23 seconds to play, Aaron Green caught a tipped pass off the hands of Josh Doctson in the back of the end zone.



    The miraculous catch sealed the 55-52 victory for the Horned Frogs.

    TCU has an explosive offense and no one doubts they can win in a shootout but injuries/suspensions have limited the defense. The Horned Frogs allowed Texas Tech to accumulate more than 600 yards of offense; ten more and we would be talking about the Red Raiders' lateraling their way to victory.

    Next Up: Texas

    Trends
    The total has gone over in four of TCU's last six home games.
    Texas is 1-5 straight-up in its last six games.

    UCLA Bruins
    2015 Record: Straight-Up 4-0, Against-the-Spread 2-1-1

    UCLA might be missing star linebacker Myles Jack and starting a freshman quarterback under center (in the shotgun) but the Bruins could be the best team in the Pac-12. UCLA staked their claim crushing Arizona 56-30. The game was never close, the Bruins led 42-14 at the half and were 99.6 percent likely to win.

    Quarterback Josh Rosen was 19-of-28 for 284 yards and two touchdowns plus a rushing score. The defense forced three turnovers all leading to scores. UCLA has now won 12 straight road games, the most in the FBS. The Bruins who are 15-4 away from home under Jim More were 5-19 with former coach Rick Neuheisel.

    High fives for everyone!



    Next Up: Arizona State

    Trends
    The total has gone over in five straight home games for UCLA.
    Arizona State is 1-5 against-the-spread in its last six road games against UCLA.

    Utah Utes
    2015 Record: Straight-Up 4-0, Against-the-Spread 3-1

    Attention Pac-12, Utah is for real.

    The Utes rolled Oregon 62-20 in Eugene. Quarterback Travis Wilson threw for 227 yards, four touchdowns and ran for 100 yards and another score in his return from a shoulder injury.

    This was the worst loss for Oregon at home since a 54-0 defeat to Washington in 1977. Utah's 62 points were the most the program had scored against a Pac-12 opponent since joining the conference.

    The game had everything including trick plays and special teams heroics.






    After punting on their opening series, Utah scored on each of their next nine possessions, seven of those ended in touchdowns. The Ducks are dead and the Utes are in the hunt for the playoffs.

    Next Up: Cal

    Trends
    Utah is 4-6 against-the-spread in its last ten games as a home favorite.
    Cal is 6-4 against-the-spread in its last ten road games.

    Three Down



    Tennessee Volunteers
    2015 Record: Straight-Up 2-2, Against-the-Spread 2-2

    Florida overcame a double-digit fourth quarter deficit to dump Tennessee 28-27 Saturday for an 11th straight win.

    The Vols gave up a 63-yard touchdown on 4th-and-14 with 1:26 to play. Before that play, Tennessee was 98.6 percent likely to win.



    Rocky Top had a chance for redemption but twice Kicker Aaron Medley missed from 55 yards, the second attempt narrowly missing the uprights.



    Per STATS, LLC, there have been six games this season in which a team has lost after leading by double-digits in the fourth. Tennessee has done it twice.

    His face pretty much sums up that stat.



    Next Up: Arkansas

    Trends
    Tennessee is 8-12 against-the-spread in its last 20 games.
    The total has gone under in eight of Arkansas' last nine games.

    Texas Longhorns
    2015 Record: Straight-Up 1-3, Against-the-Spread 1-2-1

    Another special teams gaffe cost Texas a win. In the closing minute of the tied game, Longhorns punter Michael Dickson dropped the snap inside the team's own 10-yard line, scrambled to get the punt away and the ensuing kick only went ten yards.



    Oklahoma State's expected win probability increased from 58 percent to 90 percent following the Texas blunder. The Cowboys are the first team to beat Texas four straight times in Austin.

    The Longhorns are now 5-22 in their last 27 games against ranked teams.

    Next Up: TCU

    Trends
    Texas is 8-8 against-the-spread in the Charlie Strong era.
    The total has gone under in 18 of Texas' last 25 games.

    BYU Cougars
    2015 Record: Straight-Up 2-2, Against-the-Spread 3-1

    After thrilling come from behind wins against Boise State and Nebraska that included a Hail Mary, the Cougars have back-to-back losses. Michigan routed BYU 31-0 in the Big House. Entering the game, BYU was averaging 310 yards passing and 122 rushing yards but were held to less than 100 yards until late in the fourth. It was the first shutout loss in 143 games for the Cougs.

    Michigan isn't back yet but the win could be a turning point for the program. The Wolverines had won just three of 22 games against teams ranked in the AP poll since the 2009 season.

    With Odell Beckham playing for the Maze and Blue, it won't be long before Jim Harbaugh has the Michigan back in the national championship conversation.



    Next Up: UConn

    Trends
    BYU has won 20 of its last 25 home games.
    UConn is 2-6 against-the-spread in its last eight games.

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