New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    30-Sec Shot Clock (05/16/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    How would a 30-second shot clock in college basketball impact the game? We simulated the ACC season to find out.



    The ACC will use a 30-second shot clock in exhibition games in the upcoming season. NCAA men's teams have used a 35-second shot clock since the 1993-94 season. How will a shortened shot clock impact the game? We re-simulated the 2013-14 seasons for each ACC team to find out.

    As one might expect, possessions per team increased. On average, possessions per 40 minutes increased by 9.2%. The largest increase: Miami (FL) went from 58.5 to 64.5 possessions per game.

    However, more possessions resulted in a decrease in offensive efficiency. Points per 100 possessions with a 30-second shot clock decreased on average by 1.8% across the ACC. The biggest decrease: Clemson went from 105.9 to 103.4 points per 100 possessions.

    Finally, when we simulated the 2013-14 season again but with a 30-second shot clock, the expected winning percentage for each team did change but the standings remained relatively unaffected.

    A shortened shot clock will increase scoring but unless a team adjusts its style of play to take advantage of the quicker possessions, it will be business as usual in the ACC.

    Below are the Possession For and Points/100 Possessions For, with and without a 30-second shot clock as well as the change in win percentage expected.

    Team Poss. For Pts/Poss. For 30 Sec - Poss. For 30 Sec - Pts/Poss. For
    Virginia 60.9 114.4 67.1 112.5
    Syracuse 61.3 112.3 67.4 110.2
    Duke 66.0 123.5 72.6 121.3
    North Carolina 70.8 111.7 72.9 111.9
    Pittsburgh 63.5 114.8 69.9 112.8
    Clemson 60.2 105.9 66.2 103.4
    Florida State 66.7 111.2 73.2 108.4
    N.C. State 66.2 113.9 72.8 111.7
    Maryland 69.2 107.6 75.8 105.6
    Miami (FL) 58.5 108.9 64.5 106.9
    Wake Forest 68.1 105.5 73.2 103.7
    Georgia Tech 65.7 103.8 71.3 102.0
    Notre Dame 64.1 111.9 70.4 109.8
    Boston College 63.0 113.2 69.3 111.0
    Virginia Tech 63.6 98.0 70.0 96.1


    Team Actual Win% 30 Sec - Win%
    Virginia 81.1% 77.6%
    Syracuse 82.4% 69.9%
    Duke 74.3% 70.1%
    North Carolina 70.6% 63.1%
    Pittsburgh 72.2% 68.0%
    Clemson 63.9% 61.3%
    Florida State 61.1% 54.5%
    North Carolina State 61.1% 54.9%
    Maryland 53.1% 57.5%
    Miami (FL) 51.5% 53.8%
    Wake Forest 51.5% 46.5%
    Georgia Tech 48.5% 49.5%
    Notre Dame 46.9% 49.0%
    Boston College 25.0% 37.2%
    Virginia Tech 29.0% 38.9%

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    Player of the Year (11/13/14)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    UConn/Kentucky vs. 76ers (04/09/14)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    07/17/2017 Highlight: As the MLB season enters its second half, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to take a look at our performance. Our model's picks have been downright spectacular in July, with our baseball engine generating $680 in profits for an average $50 bettor on combined sides and totals. "Normal" or better sides (stronger plays) are a perfect 4-0 in July, producing $218 in profits on those plays alone.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    College Win Total Picks (5 Books) - 2017 Preview
    Over/Under Season Win Total picks are now available for every college football team at five different books.

    MLB - The So What?
    We use 50,000 simulations of the rest of the MLB season to analyze the impacts of various roster changes, including injuries to Carlos Correa and Michael Pineda.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com