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    30-Sec Shot Clock (05/16/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    How would a 30-second shot clock in college basketball impact the game? We simulated the ACC season to find out.

    The ACC will use a 30-second shot clock in exhibition games in the upcoming season. NCAA men's teams have used a 35-second shot clock since the 1993-94 season. How will a shortened shot clock impact the game? We re-simulated the 2013-14 seasons for each ACC team to find out.

    As one might expect, possessions per team increased. On average, possessions per 40 minutes increased by 9.2%. The largest increase: Miami (FL) went from 58.5 to 64.5 possessions per game.

    However, more possessions resulted in a decrease in offensive efficiency. Points per 100 possessions with a 30-second shot clock decreased on average by 1.8% across the ACC. The biggest decrease: Clemson went from 105.9 to 103.4 points per 100 possessions.

    Finally, when we simulated the 2013-14 season again but with a 30-second shot clock, the expected winning percentage for each team did change but the standings remained relatively unaffected.

    A shortened shot clock will increase scoring but unless a team adjusts its style of play to take advantage of the quicker possessions, it will be business as usual in the ACC.

    Below are the Possession For and Points/100 Possessions For, with and without a 30-second shot clock as well as the change in win percentage expected.

    Team Poss. For Pts/Poss. For 30 Sec - Poss. For 30 Sec - Pts/Poss. For
    Virginia 60.9 114.4 67.1 112.5
    Syracuse 61.3 112.3 67.4 110.2
    Duke 66.0 123.5 72.6 121.3
    North Carolina 70.8 111.7 72.9 111.9
    Pittsburgh 63.5 114.8 69.9 112.8
    Clemson 60.2 105.9 66.2 103.4
    Florida State 66.7 111.2 73.2 108.4
    N.C. State 66.2 113.9 72.8 111.7
    Maryland 69.2 107.6 75.8 105.6
    Miami (FL) 58.5 108.9 64.5 106.9
    Wake Forest 68.1 105.5 73.2 103.7
    Georgia Tech 65.7 103.8 71.3 102.0
    Notre Dame 64.1 111.9 70.4 109.8
    Boston College 63.0 113.2 69.3 111.0
    Virginia Tech 63.6 98.0 70.0 96.1

    Team Actual Win% 30 Sec - Win%
    Virginia 81.1% 77.6%
    Syracuse 82.4% 69.9%
    Duke 74.3% 70.1%
    North Carolina 70.6% 63.1%
    Pittsburgh 72.2% 68.0%
    Clemson 63.9% 61.3%
    Florida State 61.1% 54.5%
    North Carolina State 61.1% 54.9%
    Maryland 53.1% 57.5%
    Miami (FL) 51.5% 53.8%
    Wake Forest 51.5% 46.5%
    Georgia Tech 48.5% 49.5%
    Notre Dame 46.9% 49.0%
    Boston College 25.0% 37.2%
    Virginia Tech 29.0% 38.9%

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