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    Alex Smith Future Odds (3/4/2013)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By Paul Bessire

    Alex Smith has been traded to the Chiefs and has posted odds on Smith’s total passing yards, total touchdowns, and total interceptions in the 2013 regular season. Below are our projections for Smith based on 50,000 simulations of last season.

    The Deal:

    Last week San Francisco traded Alex Smith, a former #1 overall pick, to Kansas City for a second-round (34th overall) and a conditional high pick in 2014.

    Kansas City’s Motivation:

    While Smith does not seem like a long-term answer for the Chiefs, with few options (Nick Foles, Matt Flynn, Geno Smith), KC may have made a good deal. In terms of compensation, Kansas City did not give up more than they had to. Comparing the Smith deal to similar trades for quarterbacks, Oakland spent a first and second-round pick to acquire Carson Palmer while Arizona gave up a second-round pick and cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie for Kevin Kolb.

    The Numbers:

    Below is a look at Smith’s numbers over the last three years as a starter.

      2010 2011 2012
    W-L 3-7 13-3 6-2-1
    Comp. Pct. 59.3 61.3 70.0
    Yards 2,250 3,144 1,731
    TD 14 17 13
    INT 10 5 5

    Our Projections:

    Accounting for the addition of Smith and Andy Reid, here are our projections for Smith through 50,000 simulations of last season. It is important to note that this projection assumes Smith starts all sixteen games; he has only done that twice in his seven-year career.

    Attempts Completions Yards Touchdowns Interceptions
    467.9 287.2 3488.8 17.77 12.08

    Bovada Props:

    Alex Smith – Total Passing Yards in 2013 Regular Season

    Over/Under               3,000

    Alex Smith – Total TD Passes in 2013 Regular Season

    Over/Under               18.5

    Alex Smith – Total Interceptions in 2013 Regular Season

    Over/Under               10.5

    It appears there could be some value in the over on the passing yards and the over on the total number of interceptions. The deadline for the Chiefs to use the franchise tag comes at 4:00 pm eastern on March 4th. Many assume they will use the tag on either Dwayne Bowe or Branden Albert (Editor's note: Bowe signed a long term deal and the Chiefs tagged Albert). If the Chiefs let a Pro-Bowl caliber player like Bowe walk then our current projections for Smith could change. Only time will tell whether this trade proves to be beneficial for the Chiefs, if not they always have the best Snickers commercial ever!

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