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NFL Picks - 11/19/2012

Last Updated: 11/14/2012

NFL Picks Pages:
November 15: Predictalator Picks 
November 18: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
November 19: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
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For each Monday during the NFL season, Paul Bessire thoroughly breaks down the Monday night ATS play. See Predictalator Picks for this game.

ATS Top Play of the Day: Chicago +5 vs. San Francisco (Covers 54.9%)

With the uncertainty surrounding the starting quarterbacks for this game and no strong opinion against-the-spread in the only lines we have seen posted, this game will not count as a Paul's Pick this week. However, it does appear as though there may be some strong value in the UNDER and we want to make sure that you are prepared to evaluate this game correctly as news about the quarterbacks breaks and lines settle. 

In our current projection, we have Jason Campbell starting for Chicago and Alex Smith starting for San Francisco. But, we can provide the projections for all four possible scenarios here:

  • If Jason Campbell starts against Alex Smith, San Francisco wins 59.1% of the time and by an average score of 19.1-15.9.
  • If Jay Cutler starts against Alex Smith, San Francisco wins 55.4% of the time and by an average score of 19.0-16.8.
  • If Jay Cutler starts against Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco wins 50.2% of the time and by an average score of 18.1-17.9
  • If Jason Campbell starts against Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco wins 53.9% of the time and by an average score of 18.3-16.7.

The analysis on this is pretty simple. These are two elite defensive teams taking on offenses that are essentially NFL average overall, yet do have two of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. From a fantasy standpoint, the only major difference is that Colin Kaepernick is worth owning if he is to start at quarterback due to his rushing ability. No other quarterbacks in the matchup should be considered for this week. 

NFL Picks Pages:
November 15: Predictalator Picks 
November 18: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
November 19: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
Play Analyzer - View Updated Picks on Current Consensus Lines
Customize the Predictalator - Play the Games with Any Lines
Buy Picks

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For Week 8 in the NFL, there are a total of 3 plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better, including seven picks that cover more than 60% of the time and three predicted outright upsets.

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10/27/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of October 20 - 26, one could find that highlighted, "normal" or better MLB picks went 2-0 to start the World Series and are now 31-11 (74% ML, O/U and RL) all-time. A normal $50 player using our play value recommendations would be +$747 during this MLB postseason.

In football, halftime picks were particularly strong. In Week 8 for the NFL, "normal" or better (and there are better) halftime picks went 7-1 (88% ATS and O/U). Combined NFL Week 8 and College Football Week 9 "normal" or better halftime picks hit 64% (ATS and O/U) and generated a profit of +$950 for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations. Also, with a Central Michigan (-4) victory over Buffalo, 20-14, College Football Locks of the Week have covered in four straight weeks helping football Locks of the Week to a 103-59 (64% ATS) record all-time.

And with the season starting this week, highlighted, "normal" or better Over/Under Season Win Total Picks in the NBA are 24-13 (65% O/U) all-time. Meanwhile, for the 2013-14 NBA season, "normal" or better full game and halftime picks generated a $4,311 profit for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations, including hitting 59% on normal over/under plays.

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NFL Picks - Week 9
For Week 9 in the NFL, there are a total of six plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better, as well as a total of 11 playable against-the-spread picks. See Denver @ New England and more.

College Picks - Week 10
For Week 10 in the College Football, there are a total of 13 plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better and four predicted outright upsets. See Stanford @ Oregon and more.

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