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    NFL Picks - 11/19/2012

    Last Updated: 11/14/2012

    NFL Picks Pages:
    November 15: Predictalator Picks 
    November 18: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
    November 19: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
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    For each Monday during the NFL season, Paul Bessire thoroughly breaks down the Monday night ATS play. See Predictalator Picks for this game.

    ATS Top Play of the Day: Chicago +5 vs. San Francisco (Covers 54.9%)

    With the uncertainty surrounding the starting quarterbacks for this game and no strong opinion against-the-spread in the only lines we have seen posted, this game will not count as a Paul's Pick this week. However, it does appear as though there may be some strong value in the UNDER and we want to make sure that you are prepared to evaluate this game correctly as news about the quarterbacks breaks and lines settle. 

    In our current projection, we have Jason Campbell starting for Chicago and Alex Smith starting for San Francisco. But, we can provide the projections for all four possible scenarios here:

    • If Jason Campbell starts against Alex Smith, San Francisco wins 59.1% of the time and by an average score of 19.1-15.9.
    • If Jay Cutler starts against Alex Smith, San Francisco wins 55.4% of the time and by an average score of 19.0-16.8.
    • If Jay Cutler starts against Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco wins 50.2% of the time and by an average score of 18.1-17.9
    • If Jason Campbell starts against Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco wins 53.9% of the time and by an average score of 18.3-16.7.

    The analysis on this is pretty simple. These are two elite defensive teams taking on offenses that are essentially NFL average overall, yet do have two of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. From a fantasy standpoint, the only major difference is that Colin Kaepernick is worth owning if he is to start at quarterback due to his rushing ability. No other quarterbacks in the matchup should be considered for this week. 

    NFL Picks Pages:
    November 15: Predictalator Picks 
    November 18: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
    November 19: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
    Play Analyzer - View Updated Picks on Current Consensus Lines
    Customize the Predictalator - Play the Games with Any Lines
    Buy Picks

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    The Predictalator

    With just a few days before NFL and college football camps opening, it's worth noting a couple football highlights. Strong opinions in college football have consistently generated great returns, with the Locks of the Week on the site going 53-24 (69% ATS) over five seasons (24-8, 75% ATS in the last two seasons) and featured, "normal" or better totals (greater than 57% confidence in the pick) going 348-255 (58% O/U) all-time.

    Picking every NFL game over five years, playable against-the-spread picks are 591-487 (55% ATS) on the site (including better than 57% ATS in 2013 and .500 or better results every week in 2014 from Week 7 through the Conference Championship games).

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