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NFL Picks - 11/19/2012

Last Updated: 11/14/2012

NFL Picks Pages:
November 15: Predictalator Picks 
November 18: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
November 19: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
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For each Monday during the NFL season, Paul Bessire thoroughly breaks down the Monday night ATS play. See Predictalator Picks for this game.

ATS Top Play of the Day: Chicago +5 vs. San Francisco (Covers 54.9%)

With the uncertainty surrounding the starting quarterbacks for this game and no strong opinion against-the-spread in the only lines we have seen posted, this game will not count as a Paul's Pick this week. However, it does appear as though there may be some strong value in the UNDER and we want to make sure that you are prepared to evaluate this game correctly as news about the quarterbacks breaks and lines settle. 

In our current projection, we have Jason Campbell starting for Chicago and Alex Smith starting for San Francisco. But, we can provide the projections for all four possible scenarios here:

  • If Jason Campbell starts against Alex Smith, San Francisco wins 59.1% of the time and by an average score of 19.1-15.9.
  • If Jay Cutler starts against Alex Smith, San Francisco wins 55.4% of the time and by an average score of 19.0-16.8.
  • If Jay Cutler starts against Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco wins 50.2% of the time and by an average score of 18.1-17.9
  • If Jason Campbell starts against Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco wins 53.9% of the time and by an average score of 18.3-16.7.

The analysis on this is pretty simple. These are two elite defensive teams taking on offenses that are essentially NFL average overall, yet do have two of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. From a fantasy standpoint, the only major difference is that Colin Kaepernick is worth owning if he is to start at quarterback due to his rushing ability. No other quarterbacks in the matchup should be considered for this week. 

NFL Picks Pages:
November 15: Predictalator Picks 
November 18: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
November 19: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
Play Analyzer - View Updated Picks on Current Consensus Lines
Customize the Predictalator - Play the Games with Any Lines
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10/20/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of October 13 - 19, one could find that all playable NFL against-the-spread picks went 9-2 (82% ATS). This includes the Week 7 NFL Lock of the Week, Arizona (-3.5) at Oakland that covered in a 24-13 win. The College Football Lock of the Week, Michigan State (-14) at Indiana, also covered the spread. Football Locks of the Week are 5-1 (83% ATS) in the last three weeks and are 102-58 (64% ATS) since the site launched in 2010.

With the first pitch of the World Series Tuesday night, don't miss out on any of the action as all normal or better MLB Playoff picks have gone 4-2 (67% ML, O/U and RL) this postseason and all playable picks have generated a +$559 profit for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations. All-time, in the MLB postseason, all "normal" or better baseball plays are now 29-11 (73% ML, O/U and RL).

And with the season starting in less than a week, highlighted, "normal" or better Over/Under Season Win Total Picks in the NBA are 24-13 (65% O/U) all-time. Meanwhile, for the 2013-14 NBA season, "normal" or better full game and halftime picks generated a $4,311 profit for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations, including hitting 59% on normal over/under plays.

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