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    NFL Picks - 11/19/2012

    Last Updated: 11/14/2012

    NFL Picks Pages:
    November 15: Predictalator Picks 
    November 18: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
    November 19: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
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    For each Monday during the NFL season, Paul Bessire thoroughly breaks down the Monday night ATS play. See Predictalator Picks for this game.

    ATS Top Play of the Day: Chicago +5 vs. San Francisco (Covers 54.9%)

    With the uncertainty surrounding the starting quarterbacks for this game and no strong opinion against-the-spread in the only lines we have seen posted, this game will not count as a Paul's Pick this week. However, it does appear as though there may be some strong value in the UNDER and we want to make sure that you are prepared to evaluate this game correctly as news about the quarterbacks breaks and lines settle. 

    In our current projection, we have Jason Campbell starting for Chicago and Alex Smith starting for San Francisco. But, we can provide the projections for all four possible scenarios here:

    • If Jason Campbell starts against Alex Smith, San Francisco wins 59.1% of the time and by an average score of 19.1-15.9.
    • If Jay Cutler starts against Alex Smith, San Francisco wins 55.4% of the time and by an average score of 19.0-16.8.
    • If Jay Cutler starts against Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco wins 50.2% of the time and by an average score of 18.1-17.9
    • If Jason Campbell starts against Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco wins 53.9% of the time and by an average score of 18.3-16.7.

    The analysis on this is pretty simple. These are two elite defensive teams taking on offenses that are essentially NFL average overall, yet do have two of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. From a fantasy standpoint, the only major difference is that Colin Kaepernick is worth owning if he is to start at quarterback due to his rushing ability. No other quarterbacks in the matchup should be considered for this week. 

    NFL Picks Pages:
    November 15: Predictalator Picks 
    November 18: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
    November 19: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
    Play Analyzer - View Updated Picks on Current Consensus Lines
    Customize the Predictalator - Play the Games with Any Lines
    Buy Picks

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    1/26/2015 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the week of January 19th - 25th, one could find that all featured, "normal" or better against-the-spread plays in the NBA and college basketball went 13-7 (65% ATS). The ATS success wasn't limited to just full games picks. All normal or better halftime against-the-spread plays in the NBA and college basketball combined to go 64-48 (57% ATS). In the last three weeks all normal or better against-the-spread halftime picks in college basketball picks have gone 132-94 (58% ATS).

    In the previous week's NFL Conference Championship games, the Lock of the Week in the NFL Playoffs (Packers +7.5 at Seattle) easily covered. All-time, in the NFL Playoffs, Locks of the Week are 17-2 (89% ATS), including going 4-1 (80% ATS) in Super Bowls. All playable against-the-spread picks in this NFL postseason are now 6-3 (67% ATS). All-time on the site, all against-the-spread picks in the NFL Playoffs are now 41-13 (76% ATS). Playable prop picks for last Super Bowl went a combined 26-19 (58%), generating a profit of +$847 for a normal $50 player utilizing play value recommendations. Highlighted "normal" plays went 12-7 (63% and +$570), while "2X Green" plays went 4-1 (80% and +$355).

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