NFL Picks - 11/19/2012

Last Updated: 11/14/2012

NFL Picks Pages:
November 15: Predictalator Picks 
November 18: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
November 19: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
Play Analyzer - View Updated Picks on Current Consensus Lines
Customize the Predictalator - Play the Games with Any Lines
Buy Picks

Learn more about the Predictalator Picks, Customizable Predictalator and Play Analyzer with this Tutorial Video.

For each Monday during the NFL season, Paul Bessire thoroughly breaks down the Monday night ATS play. See Predictalator Picks for this game.

ATS Top Play of the Day: Chicago +5 vs. San Francisco (Covers 54.9%)

With the uncertainty surrounding the starting quarterbacks for this game and no strong opinion against-the-spread in the only lines we have seen posted, this game will not count as a Paul's Pick this week. However, it does appear as though there may be some strong value in the UNDER and we want to make sure that you are prepared to evaluate this game correctly as news about the quarterbacks breaks and lines settle. 

In our current projection, we have Jason Campbell starting for Chicago and Alex Smith starting for San Francisco. But, we can provide the projections for all four possible scenarios here:

  • If Jason Campbell starts against Alex Smith, San Francisco wins 59.1% of the time and by an average score of 19.1-15.9.
  • If Jay Cutler starts against Alex Smith, San Francisco wins 55.4% of the time and by an average score of 19.0-16.8.
  • If Jay Cutler starts against Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco wins 50.2% of the time and by an average score of 18.1-17.9
  • If Jason Campbell starts against Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco wins 53.9% of the time and by an average score of 18.3-16.7.

The analysis on this is pretty simple. These are two elite defensive teams taking on offenses that are essentially NFL average overall, yet do have two of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. From a fantasy standpoint, the only major difference is that Colin Kaepernick is worth owning if he is to start at quarterback due to his rushing ability. No other quarterbacks in the matchup should be considered for this week. 

NFL Picks Pages:
November 15: Predictalator Picks 
November 18: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
November 19: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
Play Analyzer - View Updated Picks on Current Consensus Lines
Customize the Predictalator - Play the Games with Any Lines
Buy Picks

Archive

Ad

The Predictalator

The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (home field advantage) and weather in each game.

04/14/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the week of April 7th - 13th, one could find that all highlighted, MLB "normal" or better picks went 26-19 (58% ML, O/U, RL). This includes "normal" over/under picks going 10-4 (71% O/U). All-time (since the start of the 2012 season), all normal over/under MLB plays are 270-212 (56% O/U).

As the regular season concludes, NBA plays are heating up. All normal plays for the week in the NBA went 7-4 (64% ATS & O/U). Total picks continue to be strong, going 4-2 (67% O/U) with "normal" picks last week. Such "normal" plays are 43-32 (57% O/U) since the beginning of the year in the NBA.

The Predictalator plays every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. This provides us the ability to assign probabilities to the likelihood of just about any outcome occurring in any contest including straight-up, against-the-spread and over/under winners of each game.

Ad
Ad