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NFL Trends Week 9 (10/29/14)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
NFL Week 9 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.

There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

Week 9 – Situational Trends

Since 2004, all underdogs of 10 or more points are: 200-156-3 (56% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Raiders (+15) @ Seahawks and Jaguars (+11) @ Bengals.

All-time, winless teams in Week 9 or later in the season are 64-31-2 (67% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Raiders (+15) @ Seahawks.

Since 2004, teams that lost by 14 or more points the previous week and are underdogs of 9 or more points are: 87-61-3 (59% ATS).

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Jaguars (+11) @ Bengals, Jets (+9.5) @ Chiefs, and Rams (+10) @ 49ers.

NFL Trends – Week 9

Team Spread Trend
AZ +4 @ DAL All-time, teams that started the season 6-1 and are road dogs are 7-5-1 (58% ATS).
BAL Pick'em @ PIT Since 2008, the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens against the Steelers are 5-8-2 (39% ATS).
CAR +2.5 vs. NO The Panthers are 5-1 (83% ATS) in the teams last six games against the Saints.
CIN -11 vs. JAX Since 2011, the Andy Dalton era, the Bengals have never been favorites of 10 or more points.
CLE -6.5 vs. TB All-time, teams that are home favorites facing opponents that started the season 1-6 are 19-26-1 (42% ATS).
DAL -4 vs. AZ Since 1990, the Cowboys at home vs. the Cardinals are 14-1 straight-up.
DEN -3 @ NE Against Tom Brady, Peyton Manning is 6-9-1 (40% ATS).
HOU +2 vs. PHI All-time, the Texans as home dogs are 23-19-3 (55% ATS).
IND -3 @ NYG Since 2012, the Andrew Luck era, the Colts as road favorites are 6-2-1 (75% ATS).
JAX +11 @ CIN All-time, teams that start the season 1-7 and are dogs of 10 or more points are 12-6-1 (67% ATS).
KC -9.5 vs. NYJ All-time, teams that have covered against-the-spread six weeks in a row are 37-48-2 (44% ATS).
MIA -1.5 vs. SD Since 2012, the Ryan Tannehill era, the Dolphins as favorites are 5-10 (33% ATS).
MIN -2.5 vs. WAS All-time, the Vikings as favorites against the Redskins are 2-5 (29% ATS).
NE +3 vs. DEN Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots as home dogs are 7-2 (78% ATS).
NO -2.5 @ CAR Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, the Saints vs. the Panthers are 5-11 (31% ATS).
NYG +3 vs. IND Since 2005, the Eli Manning era, the Giants following a bye week are 7-2 (78%) straight-up.
NYJ +9.5 @ KC All-time, the Jets as road dogs of 7 or more points are 45-33-3 (58% ATS).
OAK +15 @ SEA All-time, road dogs of 14 or more points are 113-83-8 (58% ATS).
PHI -2 @ HOU In the Chip Kelly era, the Eagles as favorites are 6-10 (38% ATS).
PIT Pick'em vs. BAL Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers vs. the AFC North are 37-26-3 (59% ATS).
SD +1.5 @ MIA Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as road dogs are 20-11-3 (65% ATS).
SEA -15 vs. OAK Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks as favorite of 10 or more points are 8-1 straight-up but 4-5 (44% ATS).
SF -10 vs. STL All-time, the 49ers against the NFC West as a favorite of 7 point or more are 25-13-1 (66% ATS).
STL +10 @ SF All-time, teams that lost by 21 or more points and are dogs of 7 or more points are 236-179-8 (57% ATS).
TB +6.5 @ CLE All-time, teams that started the season 1-6 and are underdogs are 43-33-2 (56% ATS).
WAS +2.5 @ MIN All-time, the Redskins following a Monday Night game on the road are 7-10-1 (41% ATS).

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10/27/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of October 20 - 26, one could find that highlighted, "normal" or better MLB picks went 2-0 to start the World Series and are now 31-11 (74% ML, O/U and RL) all-time. A normal $50 player using our play value recommendations would be +$747 during this MLB postseason.

In football, halftime picks were particularly strong. In Week 8 for the NFL, "normal" or better (and there are better) halftime picks went 7-1 (88% ATS and O/U). Combined NFL Week 8 and College Football Week 9 "normal" or better halftime picks hit 64% (ATS and O/U) and generated a profit of +$950 for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations. Also, with a Central Michigan (-4) victory over Buffalo, 20-14, College Football Locks of the Week have covered in four straight weeks helping football Locks of the Week to a 103-59 (64% ATS) record all-time.

And with the season starting this week, highlighted, "normal" or better Over/Under Season Win Total Picks in the NBA are 24-13 (65% O/U) all-time. Meanwhile, for the 2013-14 NBA season, "normal" or better full game and halftime picks generated a $4,311 profit for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations, including hitting 59% on normal over/under plays.

Recommended Features



NFL Picks - Week 9
For Week 9 in the NFL, there are a total of six plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better, as well as a total of 11 playable against-the-spread picks. See Denver @ New England and more.

College Picks - Week 10
For Week 10 in the College Football, there are a total of 13 plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better and four predicted outright upsets. See Stanford @ Oregon and more.


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