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    NFL Trends Super Bowl (01/26/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    ­­Super Bowl betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.



    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

    NFL Trends – Super Bowl
    Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

    Since 1990, when the NFL Playoffs expanded to 12 teams, the underdog is 13-9-2 (59% ATS).

    Underdogs have covered in six of the last seven Super Bowls and have won outright in four of the last five.

    Since 1990, when the NFL Playoffs expanded to 12 teams, the OVER is 14-11 (56%).

    In that same time frame, only 5 of the 25 Super Bowls have been decided by three points or less. The current consensus line is the Patriots -1.5.

    If the line remains at -1.5, this will be the third lowest spread in Super Bowl history. The 49ers and Dolphins were -1 favorites in Super Bowl XVI and Super Bowl VII respectively.

    How often does the spread come into account in the Super Bowl? All-time, 29 of 48 Super Bowls have been within one touchdown of the final spread.

    The public loves betting the favorite and the over. The favorite has covered and the game has gone over in just 14 Super Bowls and only twice in this century.

    The NFC holds a 26-22 edge over the AFC in the Super Bowl.

    The AFC has been favored over the NFC in 22 Super Bowls. The AFC is 14-8 straight-up and 11-11 against-the-spread in those games. The AFC has failed to cover in four of the last five Super Bowls as a favorite.

    Seattle Seahawks


    Russell Wilson is 6-1 straight-up and 5-1-1 ATS in the playoffs.

    Since 1978, seven defending champions have returned to the Super Bowl the following year. Those teams went 5-2 straight-up and 4-3 against-the-spread.

    No defending champion has ever been an underdog in the Super Bowl. Teams looking to repeat have been favored on average by 8.7 points.

    Seattle is the 14th team to reach Super Bowl with the No. 1 scoring defense in the regular season. The previous 13 teams went 10-3 straight-up and 7-5-1 against-the-spread.

    New England Patriots


    Tom Brady is 3-2 straight-up in the Super Bowl but just 1-4 against-the-spread (0-4 as a favorite ATS) in the big game.

    All-time in the playoffs, when a team won by 30 or more points in the previous round, the team went 18-23-1 (44% ATS) in their next playoff game. New England beat Indianapolis by 38 points in the AFC Conference Championship.



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    1/26/2015 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the week of January 19th - 25th, one could find that all featured, "normal" or better against-the-spread plays in the NBA and college basketball went 13-7 (65% ATS). The ATS success wasn't limited to just full games picks. All normal or better halftime against-the-spread plays in the NBA and college basketball combined to go 64-48 (57% ATS). In the last three weeks all normal or better against-the-spread halftime picks in college basketball picks have gone 132-94 (58% ATS).

    In the previous week's NFL Conference Championship games, the Lock of the Week in the NFL Playoffs (Packers +7.5 at Seattle) easily covered. All-time, in the NFL Playoffs, Locks of the Week are 17-2 (89% ATS), including going 4-1 (80% ATS) in Super Bowls. All playable against-the-spread picks in this NFL postseason are now 6-3 (67% ATS). All-time on the site, all against-the-spread picks in the NFL Playoffs are now 41-13 (76% ATS). Playable prop picks for last Super Bowl went a combined 26-19 (58%), generating a profit of +$847 for a normal $50 player utilizing play value recommendations. Highlighted "normal" plays went 12-7 (63% and +$570), while "2X Green" plays went 4-1 (80% and +$355).

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