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    NFL Trends Week 12 (11/19/14)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    NFL Week 12 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.

    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

    Week 12 – Situational Trends

    Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, underdogs of 10 or more points are 224-176-4 (56% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Jaguars (+14) @ Colts and Titans (+11) @ Eagles.

    All-time, teams that start the season 0-10 are 8-4 (67% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Raiders (+7) vs. Chiefs.

    Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, road favorites coming off of a bye are 46-23-1 (67% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Cowboys (-3.5) @ Giants

    NFL Trends – Week 12
    Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

    Team Spread Trend
    AZ +6.5 @ SEA In the last twenty games, road teams in Seattle are 6-13-1 (32% ATS).
    ATL -3 vs. CLE Since 2008, the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons as home favorites are 23-17-2 (58% ATS).
    BAL +3.5 @ NO Since 2008, the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens coming off a bye week are 5-1 straight-up and 5-1 (83% ATS).
    BUF -4.5 vs. NYJ All-time, teams that played the previous Thursday night game and are home favorites are 70-55 (56% ATS).
    CHI -5.5 vs. TB Since 2009, the Jay Cutler era, the Bears as home favorites are 11-16-2 (41% ATS).
    CIN +1.5 @ HOU Since 2011, the Andy Dalton era, the Bengals on the road are 16-12-2 (57% ATS).
    CLE +3 @ ATL All-time, the Browns against the NFC South are 18-13-1 (58% ATS).
    DAL -3.5 @ NYG Since 2006, the Tony Romo era, the Cowboys coming off a bye are 7-1 (88% ATS).
    DEN -7 vs. MIA In the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos following a regular season loss are 7-1 (88% ATS).
    DET +7 @ NE All-time, the Lions in Foxborough are lambs. Detroit is 2-6 straight-up playing in New England.
    GB -10 @ MIN Since 2008, the Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers as favorites of 10 or more points are 12-8 (60% ATS).
    HOU -1.5 vs. CIN In the last ten games against teams from the AFC North, the Texans are 7-3 (70% ATS).
    IND -14 vs. JAX Since 2012, the Andrew Luck era, the Colts as favorites are 15-10-1 (60% ATS).
    JAX +14 @ IND Since 2008, the last time the Jags were in the playoffs, Jacksonville is 40-66 (38% ATS).
    KC -7 @ OAK All-time, teams that have covered the spread in nine straight games are 1-3 (25% ATS) in the next game.
    MIA +7 @ DEN All-time, teams that played the previous Thursday night game and are underdogs of 7 or more points are 33-26 (56% ATS).
    MIN +10 vs. GB The Vikings have only been home underdogs of 10 or more points once, they covered the spread (+11 vs. 49ers in 1985).
    NE -7 vs. DET Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots as home favorites of 7 or more points are 29-35-1 (45% ATS).
    NO -3.5 vs. BAL Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, when facing a team coming off a bye the Saints are 3-7 (30% ATS).
    NYG +3.5 vs. DAL All-time, the Giants as home underdogs against the Cowboys are 12-4 (75% ATS).
    NYJ +4.5 @ BUF In the last 5 years, the over is 176-140-4 (56% OVER) in games where the total is 40 or fewer points.
    OAK +7 vs. KC Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home dogs on Thursday Night Football are 17-24-2 (42% ATS).
    PHI -11 vs. TEN All-time, teams that lost the previous week by four or more touchdowns and are favorites are 77-97-7 (44% ATS).
    SD -4.5 vs. STL Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as home favorites of 3 or more points are 32-25-1 (56% ATS).
    SEA -6.5 vs. AZ Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks at home against the NFC West are 5-2 (71% ATS).
    SF -9 vs. WAS In the last ten games as a home favorite the 49ers are 3-7 (30% ATS).
    STL +4.5 @ SD In the last ten games against teams from the AFC West the Rams are 6-4 (60% ATS).
    TB +5.5 @ CHI All-time, coming off of a win by two or more touchdowns the Buccaneers are 41-31 (57% ATS).
    TEN +11 @ PHI All-time, teams that played on Monday night and are dogs of 10 or more points are 13-6-1 (68% ATS).
    WAS +9 @ SF In the last ten games on the road the Redskins are 3-7 (30% ATS).

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    11/17/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of November 10th - 16th, one could find that with five sports (NFL, College Football, NBA, College Basketball and NHL) all in action at the same time, value based betting opportunities have been prevalent. In the last week, all featured "normal" or better against-the-spread plays went 28-13 (68% ATS and PL). This includes a stellar start to the college basketball season as the Predictalator is on fire. All "normal" or better against-the-spread plays in the first week of the season went 19-8 (70% ATS).

    And, while there were not any published "normal" NFL sides for the week, normal or better NFL halftimes stayed strong by going 4-0 ATS in Week 11. Over the last five weeks, all playable full game against-the-spread NFL picks are 35-21 (63% ATS). In that same stretch, "normal or better halftime picks in the NFL are 15-7 (68% ATS).

    Finally, in the NHL, all "normal" or better picks went 18-12 (60% ML, O/U and PL) over the last week. In the last three weeks, all normal or better NHL picks are 53-33 (62% ML, O/U and PL).

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    NFL Picks - Week 12
    For Week 12 in the NFL, there are a total of five plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better, as well as 12 playable against-the-spread opinions. See Dallas at New York and more.

    College Picks - Week 12
    For Week 13 in the College Football, there are a total of nine plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better as well as three predicted outright upsets. See USC @ UCLA and more.


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