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    NFL Trends Week 4 (09/30/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    powered by Trend Machine

    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Week 4 – Situational Trends

    Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will miss four-to-six weeks with a knee injury that he suffered in the Steelers 12-6 win over St. Louis last Sunday. No Big Ben, no problem. The Black and Gold are 10-7-1 against-the-spread when Roethlisberger does not start.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Steelers (+2.5) vs. Ravens.

    All-time, teams that start 0-3 and are home favorites the next week are 8-20-1 (29% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Saints (-4) vs. Cowboys.

    All-time, teams that start 3-0 and are home favorites the next week are 39-25 (61% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Bengals (-3.5) vs. Chiefs, Broncos (-6.5) vs. Vikings, Cardinals (-6.5) vs. Rams and Falcons (-6.5) vs. Texans.

    NFL Trends – Week 4
    (Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)

    Teams Spread Trend
    ATL -6.5 vs. HOU This is the fifth time Atlanta has started the season 3-0, the previous four occasions the Falcons were 1-3 ATS in the next game.
    AZ -6.5 vs. STL With Carson Palmer, the Cardinals are favorites of three or more points are 6-1-1 against-the-spread.
    BAL -2.5 @ PIT All-time, the Ravens are 2-6 against-the-spread on Thursday Night Football.
    BUF -6.5 vs. NYG The Bills are 7-3 against-the-spread in their last ten games as home favorites of less than a touchdown.
    CAR -3 @ TB The Panthers, in the Cam Newton era, are 7-5 ATS on the road against divisional rivals.
    CHI +3 vs. OAK The Bears have covered just two of their last ten games as home underdogs.
    CIN -3.5 vs. KC This is the sixth time Cincinnati has started the season 3-0, the Bengals went 1-4 ATS in the next game the previous five years.
    CLE +7.5 @ SD The Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road games against the AFC West.
    DAL +4 @ NO Brandon Weeden has lost his last nine starts and is 0-9 ATS in those games.
    DEN -6.5 vs. MIN Peyton Manning has started 3-0 six other times in his career, he was 5-1 ATS in the next game.
    DET +9.5 @ SEA Matthew Stafford as a road dog of a touchdown or more is 0-12 straight-up and 2-9-1 ATS.
    GB -9 @ SF Aaron Rodgers as a road favorite of a touchdown or more is 4-8 ATS.
    HOU +6.5 @ ATL In the JJ Watt era, the Texans as road underdogs are 4-14 straight-up.
    IND -9 vs. JAX In the Andrew Luck era, the Colts as home favorites against the AFC South are 6-2 ATS.
    JAX +9 @ IND In the last two years, following a loss by three or more touchdowns, the Jags are 1-5 against-the-spread the next week.
    KC +3.5 @ CIN All-time, following a loss and as a road underdog the Chiefs are 58-39-1 (60% ATS).
    MIA +1.5 vs. NYJ This is the Dolphins third trip across the pond to play at Wembley Stadium, Miami is 2-0 against-the-spread in London.
    MIN +6.5 @ DEN The Vikings are 10-5-1 against-the-spread with Teddy Bridgewater as the starter (equivalent of a full season).
    NO -4 vs. DAL The Saints once-dominant home field advantage is gone, New Orleans has lost six straight inside the Superdome.
    NYG +6.5 @ BUF In the Eli Manning era, the Giants following a Thursday night game are 4-0-1 against-the-spread.
    NYJ -1.5 @ MIA In all London games, the designated away team has been favored in 9 of 11 games and are 6-5 (55% ATS).
    OAK -3 @ CHI Oakland hasn't been favored on the road since 2012. The Raiders are 0-3-1 ATS all-time in Chicago as a favorite
    PHI -3 @ WAS All-time, the Eagles as road favorites against the NFC East are 20-12-2 (63% ATS).
    PIT +2.5 vs. BAL All-time, the Steelers are 23-17-2 against-the-spread vs. Baltimore.
    SD -7.5 vs. CLE In the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as home favorites of a touchdown or more are 24-16 (60% ATS).
    SEA -9.5 vs. DET The Seahawks, in the Russell Wilson era, are 16-7-2 against-the-spread as home favorites.
    SF +9 vs. GB The 49ers haven't been home dogs of 7 or more points since 2007, San Francisco covered that game*.
    STL +6.5 @ AZ All-time, the Rams as underdogs against division opponents are 39-54 (42% ATS).
    TB +3 vs. CAR The Buccaneers are 6-14 ATS in their last twenty games as a home dog following a loss.
    WAS +3 vs. PHI All-time, the Redskins as home dogs to the Eagles are 5-9-1 against-the-spread.

    *The 49ers didn't just cover that game, San Francisco won outright 21-19 as 7 point dogs in Week 16 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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    9/28/2015 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the week of September 21st-27th, one could find that all "normal" or better (greater than 57% to cover) NFL picks in Week 3 went 3-2 (60% ATS and O/U). All normal against-the-spread picks for the season have started 5-2 (71% ATS and O/U). Meanwhile, all against-the-spread picks in the NFL are 29-17 (63% ATS) and all over/under picks are 28-19 (60% O/U) to start the year.

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