College Preview: Standings

Last updated on 8/13/2012

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The Predictalator has played every 2012 college football regular season and bowl game 50,000 times before it's actually played (Read more about How This Works). Based on that analysis, we present projected conference standings.

Season Summary

In the most likely BCS Championship game, USC tops Alabama, our projected BCS champion at this time last year, to keep the Crimson Tide from winning its second consecutive championship and the third in the last four seasons, which would also have been the SEC's seventh straight BCS title. USC, also the most likely team within FBS to go undefeated this season, wins over Alabama at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida 56.5% of the time and by an average score of 26.5-20.2. Despite losing Kalil and DE/OLB Nick Perry to the first round of the NFL draft this season, USC returns 15 starters, plus the punter and kicker (not to mention the addition of Silas Redd, Penn State's leading rusher from a year ago) from last season's 10-2 team that was ineligible to play in the postseason. Interestingly, Alabama ranks ahead of USC in our initial Power Rankings, but USC wins this game more often than not due to matchup advantages. It is important to note that, with three SEC teams in the top four overall (each projected to win 10+ games), eight SEC teams in our top 20 and Michigan (#13) on Alabama's schedule, USC is far more likely to make the BCS Championship game than Alabama or any other specific SEC team. That being said, with that kind of conference strength (and the gap between the SEC and all other conferences widening), the SEC this year is as close to a lock as we have ever seen to put at least one team into the BCS title game.

In other BCS Bowls, the Big Ten Championship game winner, Michigan falls to the Pac-12 championship runner-up, Oregon in a Rose Bowl shootout 41-33. The Sugar Bowl features the second best team from the SEC, LSU doing an admirable job of shutting down (though not quite as convincingly as in their regular season matchup last year) the Big 12's second place team West Virginia with a 29-25 Tiger victory. In a great defensive battle, ACC winner Florida State bests Big East champion Louisville 24-14 in the Orange Bowl. And Big 12 winner Oklahoma destroys a Wisconsin team that rides an easy schedule and bowl sanctions to two of the other five teams in its division (and Purdue, Illinois and Indiana are the other three teams) to make a BCS bowl with a 48-24 victory in the Fiesta Bowl. Meanwhile, Georgia (#4), Texas (#7) and South Carolina (#10) are top ten teams from our Power Rankings that narrowly miss making BCS game appearances.

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Projected Standings (based on 2012 FBS season played 50,000 times)

ACC

Standings Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Florida State Seminoles 9.6 2.4
2 Clemson Tigers 8.7 3.3
3 Virginia Tech Hokies 8.4 3.6
4 North Carolina Tar Heels 7.5 4.5
5 North Carolina State Wolfpack 6.8 5.2
6 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 6.7 5.3
7 Virginia Cavaliers 6.2 5.8
8 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 5.8 6.2
9 Boston College Eagles 5.6 6.4
10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes 5.5 6.5
11 Maryland Terrapins 4.5 7.5
12 Duke Blue Devils 3.6 8.4

Big 12

Standings Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Oklahoma Sooners 10.2 1.8
2 West Virginia Mountaineers 9.0 3.0
3 Texas Longhorns 9.0 3.0
4 Oklahoma State Cowboys 7.7 4.3
5 Kansas State Wildcats 7.1 4.9
6 Texas Tech Red Raiders 6.7 5.3
7 Baylor Bears 6.6 5.4
8 TCU Horned Frogs 5.9 6.1
9 Iowa State Cyclones 4.4 7.6
10 Kansas Jayhawks 3.8 8.2

Big East

Standings Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Louisville Cardinals 8.7 3.3
2 South Florida Bulls 7.9 4.1
3 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 7.1 4.9
4 Pittsburgh Panthers 7.1 4.9
5 Cincinnati Bearcats 7.1 4.9
6 Connecticut Huskies 6.3 5.7
7 Syracuse Orange 5.1 6.9
8 Temple Owls 4.6 7.4

Big Ten

Standings Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Michigan Wolverines 9.3 2.7
2 Ohio State Buckeyes 9.3 2.7
3 Wisconsin Badgers 8.6 3.4
4 Nebraska Cornhuskers 8.4 3.6
5 Michigan State Spartans 8.2 3.8
6 Iowa Hawkeyes 7.2 4.8
7 Purdue Boilermakers 6.4 5.6
8 Minnesota Golden Gophers 5.8 6.2
9 Penn State Nittany Lions 5.9 6.1
10 Illinois Fighting Illini 5.5 6.5
11 Northwestern Wildcats 4.2 7.8
12 Indiana Hoosiers 4.2 7.8

C-USA

Standings Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 UCF Knights 9.0 3.0
2 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 8.1 3.9
3 East Carolina Pirates 7.6 4.4
4 Houston Cougars 7.5 4.5
5 Marshall Thundering Herd 6.6 5.4
6 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 6.3 5.7
7 Southern Methodist Mustangs 5.9 6.1
8 Rice Owls 4.9 7.1
9 UTEP Miners 4.8 7.2
10 UAB Blazers 2.9 9.1
11 Tulane Green Wave 2.4 9.6
12 Memphis Tigers 2.2 9.8

Independents

Standings Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
N/A Brigham Young Cougars 8.8 3.2
N/A Notre Dame Fighting Irish 7.5 4.5
N/A Navy Midshipmen 6.7 5.3
N/A Army Black Knights 5.2 6.8

MAC

Standings Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Ohio Bobcats 9.8 2.2
2 Bowling Green Falcons 8.4 3.6
3 Miami (OH) RedHawks 8.3 3.7
4 Toledo Rockets 7.5 4.5
5 Northern Illinois Huskies 7.5 4.5
6 Western Michigan Broncos 7.2 4.8
7 Kent State Golden Flashes 5.6 6.4
8 Central Michigan Chippewas 5.3 6.7
9 Buffalo Bulls 4.2 7.8
10 Ball State Cardinals 3.3 8.7
11 Eastern Michigan Eagles 3.2 8.8
12 Akron Zips 2.3 9.7
13 Massachusetts Minutemen 1.2 10.8

Mountain West

Standings Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Boise State Broncos 9.0 3.0
2 Nevada Wolf Pack 8.7 3.3
3 Wyoming Cowboys 7.2 4.8
4 Fresno State Bulldogs 7.1 4.9
5 San Diego State Aztecs 7.0 5.0
6 Hawaii Warriors 5.5 6.5
7 Colorado State Rams 4.9 7.1
8 New Mexico Lobos 4.7 8.3
9 Air Force Falcons 4.4 7.6
10 UNLV Rebels 3.3 9.7

Pac 12

Standings Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 USC Trojans 11.1 0.9
2 Oregon Ducks 9.8 2.2
3 Utah Utes 8.0 4.0
4 Stanford Cardinal 7.1 4.9
5 UCLA Bruins 6.7 5.3
6 Washington Huskies 6.7 5.3
7 Washington State Cougars 6.4 5.6
8 California Golden Bears 5.8 6.2
9 Oregon State Beavers 5.7 6.3
10 Arizona State Sun Devils 5.0 7.0
11 Arizona Wildcats 5.0 7.0
12 Colorado Buffaloes 3.0 9.0

SEC

Standings Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 10.9 1.1
2 Georgia Bulldogs 10.6 1.4
3 LSU Tigers 10.1 1.9
4 Arkansas Razorbacks 8.4 3.6
5 South Carolina Gamecocks 8.0 4.0
6 Tennessee Volunteers 7.8 4.2
7 Florida Gators 7.2 4.8
8 Missouri Tigers 6.9 5.1
9 Auburn Tigers 6.4 5.6
10 Texas A&M Aggies 6.0 6.0
11 Vanderbilt Commodores 6.0 6.0
12 Mississippi State Bulldogs 6.0 6.0
13 Mississippi Rebels 4.5 7.5
14 Kentucky Wildcats 4.2 7.8

Sun-Belt

Standings Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Arkansas State Red Wolves 8.2 3.8
2 FIU Golden Panthers 8.1 3.9
3 Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 7.4 4.6
4 Troy Trojans 6.9 5.1
5 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 5.5 6.5
6 Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 5.2 6.8
7 North Texas Mean Green 4.8 7.2
8 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 4.5 7.5
9 Florida Atlantic Owls 3.2 8.8
10 South Alabama Jaguars 3.0 10.0

WAC

Standings Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 9.6 2.4
2 Utah State Aggies 7.9 4.1
3 San Jose State Spartans 6.1 5.9
4 Idaho Vandals 5.2 6.8
5 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 4.0 8.0
6 New Mexico State Aggies 3.1 8.9
7 Texas State Bobcats 2.8 9.2

 

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