College: Bowls and Standings

Last updated on 8/15/2013

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Season Summary

Bowl matchups below reflect our best projection based on the results from our predicted season. 

In the most likely BCS Championship game, Alabama tops Ohio State, to give the Crimson Tide a third consecutive National Championship and their fourth in the last five seasons, which is also the SEC's eighth straight BCS title (to close out the "BCS era"). Alabama wins the game at the Rose Bowl 71.8% of the time and by an average score of 31-16 (yeah, not so close). The Crimson Tide retain their dominant ways that have kept the team at the top of our College Football Power Rankings for 39 consecutive college football weeks (and seemingly well on their way to 50-plus in that streak. 

There is some subjectivity to this analysis (as there tends to be in any college football conversation). Interestingly, Ohio State ranks just eighth in our initial Power Rankings, but the Buckeyes are the second most likely team in the country (from any conference) to go undefeated and would unlikely lose that spot to Louisville, the most likely undefeated team. Yet again, with four of the top six teams in the country, the SEC beats up on itself (after Alabama), while the Big 12 and Pac-12 each have multiple true national championship contenders, making it difficult for one to stand out. Ohio State may be a decent bet to make the BCS National Championship based on schedule and hype, but Alabama, Texas A&M (with Johnny Manziel starting every game), Oregon, Georgia, Texas, South Carolina and Stanford are better teams and would be favored over the Buckeyes on a neutral field. 

In other BCS Bowls, the Big Ten Championship game loser, Nebraska, falls to the Pac-12 champion, Oregon in a Rose Bowl shootout 38-27. The Sugar Bowl features the SEC Championship runner up, Georgia, overcoming the Pac-12 runner-up Stanford with a 33-31 Bulldogs victory. In another great offensive battle, ACC winner Florida State bests Big 12 runner-up Oklahoma State 31-30 in the Orange Bowl. And Big 12 winner Texas puts away an overmatched Louisville team that rides an easy schedule and conference ties to make a BCS bowl with a 35-27 victory in the Fiesta Bowl. Meanwhile, Texas A&M (#2), South Carolina (#6) and TCU (#9) are top ten teams from our Power Rankings that narrowly miss making BCS game appearances. And lastly, for the fun of it, a four-team playoff with these results would likely see Alabama (#1) taking out Florida State (#4) and Oregon (#3) defeating Ohio State (#2) to set up an Alabama vs. Oregon National Championship.

Also, because it warrants clarification at this point, we are assuming that Johnny Manziel starts every game for Texas A&M this season. If he does, the Aggies are our #2 team in the country and win 9.2 games. If he misses every game, Texas A&M still wins 7.2 games, yet falls to #46 in the Power Rankings (and a likely berth in the Liberty Bowl). 

Projected Standings (based on 2013 FBS season played 50,000 times)

AAC
Standing Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Louisville Cardinals 10.5 1.5
2 Cincinnati Bearcats 8.9 3.1
3 UCF Knights 7.4 4.6
4 Rutgers Knights 6.9 5.1
5 Connecticut Huskies 6.0 6.0
6 Southern Methodist Mustangs 5.6 6.4
7 South Florida Bulls 5.6 6.4
8 Houston Cougars 5.5 6.5
9 Memphis Tigers 5.3 6.7
10 Temple Owls 3.6 8.4

ACC
Standing Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Florida State Seminoles 9.9 2.1
2 Clemson Tigers 9.2 2.8
3 Miami (FL) Hurricanes 8.8 3.2
4 Georgia Tech Jackets 8.3 3.7
5 North Carolina Tar Heels 7.6 4.4
6 Virginia Tech Hokies 7.5 4.5
7 Maryland Terrapins 6.7 5.3
8 North Carolina State Wolfpack 6.7 5.3
9 Pittsburgh Panthers 5.5 6.5
10 Wake Forest Deacons 5.3 6.7
11 Virginia Cavaliers 4.7 7.3
12 Syracuse Orange 4.5 7.5
13 Duke Devils 4.5 7.5
14 Boston College Eagles 4.4 7.6

Big 12
Standing Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Texas Longhorns 9.5 2.5
2 Oklahoma State Cowboys 8.8 3.2
3 TCU Frogs 8.5 3.5
4 Baylor Bears 8.0 4.0
5 Oklahoma Sooners 7.5 4.5
6 Kansas State Wildcats 7.1 4.9
7 Texas Tech Raiders 6.5 5.5
8 West Virginia Mountaineers 4.8 7.2
9 Iowa State Cyclones 4.6 7.4
10 Kansas Jayhawks 3.4 8.6

Big Ten
Standing Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Ohio State Buckeyes 10.4 1.6
2 Nebraska Cornhuskers 9.7 2.3
3 Wisconsin Badgers 8.6 3.4
4 Michigan Wolverines 8.5 3.5
5 Michigan State Spartans 8.1 3.9
6 Northwestern Wildcats 7.7 4.3
7 Penn State Lions 7.6 4.4
8 Indiana Hoosiers 5.7 6.3
9 Minnesota Gophers 5.1 6.9
10 Iowa Hawkeyes 4.8 7.2
11 Purdue Boilermakers 3.8 8.2
12 Illinois Illini 3.3 8.7

C-USA
Standing Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Marshall Herd 9.7 2.3
2 Rice Owls 8.6 3.4
3 Tulsa Hurricane 8.6 3.4
4 East Carolina Pirates 7.7 4.3
5 Southern Miss Eagles 6.1 5.9
6 Middle Tennessee Raiders 6.0 6.0
7 Tulane Wave 5.7 6.3
8 UAB Blazers 5.5 6.5
9 North Texas Green 5.4 6.6
10 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 5.0 7.0
11 UTEP Miners 4.6 7.4
12 Florida International Panthers 3.2 8.8
13 UTSA Roadrunners 3.2 8.8
14 Florida Atlantic Owls 2.6 9.4

Independents
Standing Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
N/A Notre Dame Irish 8.1 3.9
N/A Brigham Young Cougars 8.1 3.9
N/A Navy Midshipmen 6.7 5.3
N/A Army Knights 4.9 7.1
N/A New Mexico State Aggies 2.9 9.1
N/A Idaho Vandals 1.6 10.4

MAC
Standing Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Northern Illinois Huskies 9.8 2.2
2 Bowling Green Falcons 9.2 2.8
3 Ball State Cardinals 8.9 3.1
4 Ohio Bobcats 8.8 3.2
5 Toledo Rockets 7.0 5.0
6 Western Michigan Broncos 7.0 5.0
7 Buffalo Bulls 6.2 5.8
8 Kent State Flashes 5.1 6.9
9 Miami (OH) Redhawks 4.5 7.5
10 Central Michigan Chippewas 4.0 8.0
11 Akron Zips 2.8 9.2
12 Eastern Michigan Eagles 2.5 9.5
13 Massachusetts Minutemen 1.3 10.7

Mountain West
Standing Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Fresno State Bulldogs 9.9 2.1
2 Boise State Broncos 9.5 2.5
3 Utah State Aggies 7.9 4.1
4 San Diego State Aztecs 6.8 5.2
5 San Jose State Spartans 6.8 5.2
6 Nevada Pack 5.9 6.1
7 Wyoming Cowboys 5.9 6.1
8 Colorado State Rams 5.6 7.4
9 Air Force Falcons 5.3 6.7
10 New Mexico Lobos 4.3 7.7
11 UNLV Rebels 4.2 7.8
12 Hawaii Warriors 3.1 8.9

Pac 12
Standing Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Oregon Ducks 10.1 1.9
2 Stanford Cardinal 9.1 2.9
3 Oregon State Beavers 8.6 3.4
4 USC Trojans 8.5 4.5
5 Arizona State Devils 7.5 4.5
6 Arizona Wildcats 7.1 4.9
7 Washington Huskies 7.0 5.0
8 UCLA Bruins 6.0 6.0
9 California Bears 4.6 7.4
10 Utah Utes 4.6 7.4
11 Washington State Cougars 4.0 8.0
12 Colorado Buffaloes 3.1 8.9

SEC
Standing Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Alabama Tide 10.5 1.5
2 Texas A&M Aggies 9.2 2.8
3 Georgia Bulldogs 9.2 2.8
4 South Carolina Gamecocks 8.7 3.3
5 Ole Miss Rebels 8.3 3.7
6 Florida Gators 8.3 3.7
7 LSU Tigers 7.9 4.1
8 Vanderbilt Commodores 6.5 5.5
9 Missouri Tigers 6.2 5.8
10 Auburn Tigers 6.1 5.9
11 Mississippi State Bulldogs 5.6 6.4
12 Tennessee Volunteers 5.4 6.6
13 Arkansas Razorbacks 5.3 6.7
14 Kentucky Wildcats 4.2 7.8

Sun-Belt
Standing Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
1 Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 8.1 3.9
2 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 8.1 3.9
3 Louisiana-Lafayette Cajuns 8.0 4.0
4 Arkansas State Wolves 6.9 5.1
5 Troy Trojans 5.9 6.1
6 Texas State Bobcats 5.4 6.6
7 South Alabama Jaguars 3.8 8.2
8 Georgia State Panthers 2.6 9.4

Projected Conference Championship Games (based on above results)

Conference Matchup Result
ACC Florida State Seminoles 34 - Miami (FL) Hurricanes 30
Big Ten Ohio State Buckeyes 32 - Nebraska Cornhuskers 29
C-USA Marshall Thundering Herd 38 - Rice Owls 30
MAC Northern Illinois Huskies 24 - Bowling Green Falcons 23
MWC Boise State Broncos 24 - Fresno State Bulldogs 20
Pac-12 Oregon Ducks 42 - USC Trojans 26
SEC Alabama Crimson Tide 38 - Georgia Bulldogs 28

Projected Bowl Games (based on above results)

Bowl Matchup Result
AdvoCare V100 Georgia Tech Jackets 30 - Missouri Tigers 26
Alamo Oklahoma Sooners 33 - Arizona State Devils 32
Armed Forces Fresno State Bulldogs 35 - Navy Midshipmen 19
BBVA Compass Mississippi State Bulldogs 29 - Southern Methodist Mustangs 21
Beef 'O' Brady Connecticut Huskies 27 - Southern Miss Eagles 17
Belk Maryland Terrapins 23 - UCF Knights 21
Buffalo Wild Wings Notre Dame Irish 26 - Kansas State Wildcats 20
Capital One Michigan Wolverines 30 - Ole Miss Rebels 28
Chick-fil-A LSU Tigers 31 - Miami (FL) Hurricanes 30
Cotton Texas A&M Aggies 33 - TCU Frogs 31
Famous Idaho Potato San Jose State Spartans 32 - Ball State Cardinals 25
Gator Florida Gators 21 - Michigan State Spartans 16
GoDaddy Northern Illinois Huskies 30 - Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 28
Hawaii Utah State Aggies 31 - East Carolina Pirates 23
Heart of Dallas Tulsa Hurricane 35 - Toledo Rockets 28
Holiday Baylor Bears 36 - USC Trojans 35
Kraft Fight Hunger Arizona Wildcats 28 - Brigham Young Cougars 24
Las Vegas Boise State Broncos 23 - Washington Huskies 21
Liberty Vanderbilt Commodores 31 - Marshall Herd 24
Little Caesars Pizza Indiana Hoosiers 26 - Bowling Green Falcons 24
Military Rice Owls 30 - North Carolina State Wolfpack 27
Music City North Carolina Tar Heels 28 Auburn Tigers 27
New Mexico UCLA Bruins 45 - Nevada Pack 24
New Orleans Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 31 - Middle Tennessee Raiders 28
Outback South Carolina Gamecocks 30 - Wisconsin Badgers 23
Pinstripe Texas Tech Raiders 30 - Rutgers Knights 20
Poinsettia San Diego State Aztecs 30 - Ohio Bobcats 21
Russell Athletic Virginia Tech Hokies 27 - Cincinnati Bearcats 24
Sun Oregon State Beavers 33 - Clemson Tigers 31
Texas Northwestern Wildcats 37 - Louisiana-Lafayette Cajuns 21

Projected BCS Bowl Games (based on above results)

BCS Bowl Matchup Result
Rose Oregon Ducks 38 - Nebraska Cornhuskers 27
Orange Florida State Seminoles 31 - Oklahoma State Cowboys 30
Sugar Georgia Bulldogs 35 - Stanford Cardinal 32
Fiesta Texas Longhorns 35 - Louisville Cardinals 27
BCS Championship Alabama Tide 31 - Ohio State Buckeyes 16

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