New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    College Football Playoff (10/07/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    Simulating USA Today's playoff projection.



    PredictionMachine.com's
    Director of Research and Analytics, John Ewing, takes a look at what the College Football Playoffs could look like through 50,000 simulations of
    FootballFour's most likely four-team playoff. Follow John on Twitter @JohnEwing for more notes from his analysis and to let him know what else you may like to see with these projections.

    How this works
    The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and efficiency-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the College Football Playoffs.

    Football Four Playoff Summary

    Four teams in the AP Top 25 went down last week shaking up the selection committee's playoff projection once again. As it stands Utah, TCU, Ohio State and Baylor are in but a case can be made for why they should be left out.

    Utah

    Why they're in: an early win over Michigan looks better with each passing week. The Wolverines are undefeated after dropping the season opener to the Utes, and a 42 point win over Oregon is impressive regardless of how you spin it.

    Why they're out: when you view Utah through the lens of strength-of-schedule-adjusted statistics not only are they not a top four team but the Utes barely crack the top 25.

    TCU

    Why they're in: The Horned Frogs have scored 50 or more points in four straight games and followed up a thrilling win over Texas Tech by crushing the Longhorns.

    Why they're out: the defense nearly shutout Texas but the jury is still out with seven starters missing.

    Ohio State

    Why they're in: undefeated defending champions.

    Why they're out: the Buckeyes look weak (three straight unimpressive wins) and are starting to resemble last year's Florida State team (defending champs that rode a weak schedule back to the playoffs).

    Baylor

    Why they're in: they average 63.8 points per game (best in the nation) and 9.4 yards per play. The gap between Baylor and the rest of the offenses in the country is similar to that of Walter White and Gale.

    Why they're out: apologies to Texas Tech but the Bears haven't played anyone.

    The playoff chase is wide open but which team has the early edge to win it all?

    The first semifinal looks like a mismatch. Baylor is No. 1 in our Power Rankings and few teams have an offense that can keep pace with the Bears up-tempo attack. Art Briles squad defeats Utah 96.7 percent of the time by an average score of 49-26.

    The second semifinal is more interesting. Ohio State has a great defense and TCU can make it rain but in the end defense wins championships (or at least this game). The Buckeyes win 61.6 percent of the time by an average score of 36-32.

    Baylor cruised to the championship game with an advantageous matchup against Utah and if the Buckeyes aren't careful they could get routed in the title game.

    Ohio State has the defense to stop TCU but Baylor is a completely different animal. In this hypothetical championship game, the Bears win by double digits and Ohio State gives up the second most points in the Urban Meyer era (somehow Indiana scored 49 points on the Buckeyes back in 2012).

    After 50,000 simulations, the most likely National Champion is the Baylor Bears. Baylor wins 82.6% of all the simulated tournaments. In the most likely National Championship game, Baylor defeats Ohio State 81.8% of the time by an average score of 44-31.

    Based on the analysis, here is the projected College Football Playoff bracket.

    Semifinals
    #1 Utah vs. #4 Baylor
    Baylor wins 96.7% of the time by an average score of 49-26.

    #2 Ohio State vs. #3 TCU
    Ohio State wins 61.6% of the time by an average score of 36-32.

    National Championship
    #2 Ohio State vs. #4 Baylor
    Baylor wins 81.8% of the time by an average score of 44-31.

    Odds for each team to advance to and win the championship.

    Team Semifinals Championship
    Utah 3.3% 0.5%
    Baylor 96.7% 82.6%
    Ohio State 61.6% 11.5%
    TCU 38.4% 5.4%

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    3 Up 3 Down (College Week 6)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    3 Up 3 Down (College Week 5)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    05/10/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now into its second month, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides and totals continue to remain extremely profitable despite a recent run of bad variance to start May. The Predictalator's record of 272-250 on sides and totals this season doesn't look all that impressive, but that's because the simulations have sided with underdogs more often than favorites. Through May 9, the Predictalator has generated $547 for an average $50 bettor. "Normal" or better sides, totals, and run lines (our strongest edges) are 14-10 (+$118) season-to-date.

    The NBA Playoffs continue on in the Second Round and the Predictalator has been profitable on both sides and totals in this year's postseason. Despite being just 16-19 (45.7%) ATS in the NBA Postseason, the Predictalator has generated $46 of total profit, which is a testament to our play value recommendations. Totals have been the real moneymaker in this postseason though, as all playabale totals are 19-15 (55.9%) for a solid profit of $168.

    The NHL Playoffs have featured some very tight lines posted by oddsmakers, which has led to lower volume for the Predictalator. That hasn't let to less profits though. The Predictalator has posted 10 NHL positions (ML, O/U, or PL) in May, going 8-2 (80%) on those positions for a profit of $87. It is rare to find a big edge in the NHL this late in the year, but the Predictalator continues to chip away on small edges to provide solid returns.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    NHL Stanley Cup Preview
    We simulate the Stanley Cup Finals 50,000 times to provide each team's probability of hoisting the Cup, and break down the strengths and weaknesses of each team.

    MLB - The So What?
    We use 50,000 simulations of the rest of the MLB season to analyze major personnel changes, including the returns of Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays lineup.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com