New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    College Football Playoff (10/14/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    PredictionMachine.com's Director of Research and Analytics, John Ewing, takes a look at what the College Football Playoffs could look like through 50,000 simulations of FootballFour's most likely four-team playoff. Follow John on Twitter @JohnEwing for more notes from his analysis and to let him know what else you may like to see with these projections.

    How this works
    The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and efficiency-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the College Football Playoffs.

    Football Four Playoff Summary

    The Football Four playoff projection remains unchanged. If the postseason started today Utah, Ohio State, TCU and Baylor would be in. Each team is undefeated and in position to win its respective conference. What are the chances that the Utes, Buckeyes, Horned Frogs and Bears win out and capture league titles – criteria for inclusion in the College Football Playoff?

    Utah – "The Utes have that feel of a special team that's destined to create some history," Playoff Projection panelist Jim Ross said. We respectfully disagree with Mr. Ross. Utah is far from the top seed, the Utes rank 21st in our Power Rankings. USC, a team with a losing conference record that just had its coach fired, is more likely to win the Pac-12 (20.9% chance).

    Team Win Out Wins Division Wins Conference
    Utah 0.1% 24.2% 7.1%
    Ohio State 4.4% 40.6% 31.8%
    TCU 1.6% N/A 12.3%
    Baylor 5.1% N/A 82.1%


    Ohio State – Urban Meyer's squad was a heavy favorite to win the Big Ten but after lackluster showings the Buckeyes are now underdogs to Michigan (39.9%).

    TCU/Baylor – the Frogs and Bears combined win nearly 95% of all simulated Big 12 titles but it's not evenly split.

    With half the season to be played, no team is a lock to win out. The playoff is far from determined but which of these teams could win it all?

    Baylor against Utah in the first semifinal would be a laugher. The Bears are the nation's top offense in both points and total yards. Art Briles' group is averaging nine yards per play and is beating teams by more than 40 points on average. The Utes have a top 25 defense but its offense won't be able to keep pace. Baylor wins 95.0% of the time by an average score of 49-27.

    They say defense wins championships and Ohio State has the best unit of these four teams but it comes up short against TCU. The Frogs offense carries TCU to a narrow victory over the defending champions. Trevone Boykin leads TCU to a 36-33 win 57.4% of the time in our simulations against the Buckeyes.

    The championship game is all about offense but how do you compare two teams that are so similar?

    Baylor is Alec Baldwin, TCU is one of the lessor Baldwin's, probably Stephen. Baylor is Rob Gronkowski and TCU is, again pick any Gronkowski that isn't an all-world tight-end. Baylor is a Ferrari, TCU is a Vespa. These comparisons might not be fair but it gets the point across. Baylor does high-octane offense better than TCU.

    After 50,000 simulations, the most likely National Champion is the Baylor Bears. Baylor wins 75.7% of all the simulated tournaments. In the most likely National Championship game, Baylor defeats TCU 73.5% of the time by an average score of 54-43.

    Based on the analysis, here is the projected College Football Playoff bracket.

    Semifinals
    #1 Utah vs. #4 Baylor
    Baylor wins 95.0% of the time by an average score of 49-27.

    #2 Ohio State vs. #3 TCU
    TCU wins 57.4% of the time by an average score of 36-33.

    National Championship
    #3 TCU vs. #4 Baylor
    Baylor wins 73.5% of the time by an average score of 54-43.

    Odds for each team to advance to and win the championship.

    Team Semifinals Championship
    Utah 5.0% 0.8%
    Baylor 95.0% 75.7%
    Ohio State 42.6% 7.3%
    TCU 57.4% 16.2%

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    3 Up 3 Down (College Week 7)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    Conference Odds (10/13/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    06/26/2017 Highlight: With the MLB season almost reaching its midpoint, we can take a look back at our Win Total Picks released at the beginning of the season to see where things currently stand. We released 22 playable win totals and at this point in the season, 15 of those 22 plays (68.2%) are on pace to be winners by the end of the season. Of the nine "normal or better" win totals that we released, seven of nine (77.8%) are looking like winners at this point.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    Rockets Land Chris Paul - Breaking down the trade that sent CP3 to Houston
    Frank Brank breaks down the trade that sent CP3 to Houston and how much it positively impacts the Rockets heading into next season.

    Top Teams in NBA History
    We use advanced statistical methods to rank past great championship teams against the most recent NBA championship and powerhouse teams.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com