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    3 Up 3 Down (College Week 11)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    A review of the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated. 



    Three Up
     
    Baylor Bears
    2013 Record: Straight-Up 8-0 Against-the-Spread 7-1
     
    Prior to this game Oklahoma was 21-1 all-time against Baylor. While the Bears had crushed their opponents by an average of 48 points this season many (we liked them to cover easily) questioned whether they could beat the Sooners. A 41-12 beatdown silenced critics.
     
    At this time a year ago Baylor was 4-5 (1-5 Big 12). Since then the Bears have been on a 12-game winning streak, a school record. One reason for the turnaround has been Baylor’s defense. Last year the Bears finished second to last in the FBS allowing 502 yards of offense, this season Baylor is 9th allowing 306 yards per game.
     
    Next Up: A reeling Texas Tech
     
    Trends
    Texas Tech is 1-4 against-the-spread in its last 5 games
    Baylor is 2-6 straight up in its last 8 games playing Texas Tech at home
     
    Stanford Cardinal
    2013 Record: Straight-Up 8-1, Against-the-Spread 5-4
     
    Stanford knocked Oregon out of the national championship picture for the second year in a row. The Cardinal used power running by Tyler Gaffney, 157 yards on a school-record 45 attempts, to clip the Ducks.
     
    For as great of a win as it was for the Stanford program, Pac-12 fans have to be a bit disappointed. The Pac-12 has not won a national title since 2004. With #NerdNation knocking off Oregon again it looks like the conference will have to wait until next year for another chance.
     
    Next Up: Trip to the Coliseum to play USC
     
    Trends
    The total has gone under in 7 of Stanford’s last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone under in 8 of USC’s last 12 games
     
    4th Quarter Covers
     
    Duke, our lock of the week, was favored by 9 points at home over NC State. The Blue Devils trailed late in the 4th quarter before taking a 24-20 lead with a little over three minutes remaining. At this point anyone holding a ticket on Duke had a chance but would need a stop and a quick score. Duke answered the bell in spectacular fashion. NC State’s next two offensive plays both results in pick-6s. Duke scored 21 points in 30 seconds not only covering the 9 point spread but inexplicably covering the 2nd half line of Duke -4. Gambling is fun!
     
    Three Down
     
    Texas Tech Red Raiders
    2013 Record: Straight-Up 7-3, Against-the-Spread 5-5
     
    Three and out. Losses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State in consecutive weeks have knocked the Red Raiders out of the rankings and most likely the Big 12 title race.
     
    Earlier in the season Texas Tech’s matchup with Baylor this weekend looked like it could go a long way to determining the conference winner. Baylor is currently a 26.5 point favorite on a neutral field this weekend. The Red Raiders will need to win at least one game against No. 5 Baylor or No. 24 Texas to salvage what was once a promising season.
     
    Next Up: Baylor at Jerry’s World
     
    Trends
    Texas Tech is 8-3 straight-up in its last 11 games
    Baylor is 2-6 against-the-spread in its last 8 games playing Texas Tech at home
     
    Johnny Manziel & Texas A&M
     
    Johnny Football threw for 446 yard and five touchdowns in a win over Mississippi State. The Aggies will finish the season with two road games possibly making last Saturday’s game Manziel’s final appearance in College Station. The reigning Heisman is eligible for the draft after this season. Manziel has brought Texas A&M back into the national spotlight helping the Aggies win 11 games last season (first since 1998). If Manziel leaves it will be interesting to see if A&M can remain in the limelight.
     
    Florida’s Bowl Streak
     
    The Gators have a 22-year bowl streak; the longest in the SEC. Florida is currently 4-5 on the season after a four game losing streak and in jeopardy of ending their long postseason run. Injuries and a demanding schedule are partly to blame.
     
    Last year the Gators won 11 games, the most in the program since Tim Tebow was playing quarterback. Florida will have to win two of its remaining three games in order to qualify for a bowl. Assuming they take care of business against Georgia Southern that means Florida will have to beat No. 10 South Carolina or No. 2 Florida State.
     
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