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    3 Up 3 Down (College Week 13)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    A review of the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated.



    Three Up

    Ohio State Buckeyes

    2014 Record: Straight-Up 10-1, Against-the-Spread 4-7

    Survive and advance. Ohio State trailed Indiana (34.5 point underdogs) midway through the third quarter but the Buckeyes were never projected to lose. A third quarter punt return jumpstarted the Ohio State offense and the Buckeyes put Indiana away 42-27.

    J.T. Barrett continued his onslaught on the record books throwing for 302 yards and rushing for another 78 against the Hoosiers. Last week Barrett broke Braxton Miller's single game rushing record (Barrett 186 rushing yards vs. Minnesota), this week Barrett broke the injured Miller's record for total yards of offense in a season (Barrett 3,507 yards, Miller 3,310 yards).

    The win clinched the Big Ten East Division for Ohio State. The Buckeyes will face the winner of next weekend's Minnesota-Wisconsin game in the Big Ten championship game.

    Next Up: Michigan

    Trends
    The total has gone under in 4 of Michigan's last five games.
    Ohio State is 9-1 straight-up in its last 10 games when playing Michigan.

    UCLA Bruins

    2014 Record: Straight-Up 9-2, Against-the-Spread 4-7

    Brett Hundley's first pass was a pick six. USC took an early 7-0 lead against their crosstown rival but UCLA was never projected to lose. The Bruins used four unanswered scores in the second half, UCLA's expected win probability went from 55 percent to 83 percent, to win 38-20.

    UCLA's quarterback kept his composure after that horrible first pass throwing for 326 yards, three touchdowns and rushing for another score. Hundley became the first UCLA quarterback since Cade McNown to post a 3-0 record against USC.

    After five consecutive wins, UCLA can clinch a Pac-12 title berth with a victory over Stanford the Friday after Thanksgiving.

    UCLA still has an outside shot at making the playoffs.

    Next Up: Stanford

    Trends
    Stanford is 1-4 against-the-spread in its last five road games.
    UCLA is 0-5 straight-up in its last five games against Stanford.

    Missouri Tigers

    2014 Record: Straight-Up 9-2, Against-the-Spread 7-4

    Mizzou surprised many around the country last year representing the SEC East in the conference title game. The Tigers were 40/1 longshots to win the Southeastern Conference this year. Missouri is one win away from a return trip to Atlanta and another shot at winning the SEC Championship.

    Mizzou defeated Tennessee 29-21 for the program's 10th straight road win, a school record. The Tigers defense, which entered the game with an SEC high 34 sacks, notched six more against Tennessee.

    The Tigers can clinch the East Division with a win over the suddenly hot Arkansas Razorbacks next Friday.

    Next Up: Arkansas

    Trends
    Arkansas is 1-10 straight-up in its last 11 games on the road.
    Missouri is 2-4 against-the-spread in its last six home games.

    Three Down



    Florida State Seminoles

    2014 Record: Straight-Up 11-0, Against-the-Spread 3-8

    Depending on your perspective, Florida State either extended its impressive winning streak to 26 consecutive games with another gutsy fourth quarter performance or the Noles were lucky to survive yet another scare against a heavy underdog.

    It was a game of field goals. Boston College missed a 43-yard attempt with less than five minutes left that would have given the Eagles the lead and Florida State kicker Roberto Aguayo drilled a 26-yard field goal with three seconds remaining to keep the Noles perfect season alive.

    Florida State is currently the third seed in the College Football Playoff. The Seminoles have seen their status as a playoff team slip in recent weeks with underwhelming showings against inferior opponents.

    Will another close call cost the Seminoles a chance at defending their title?

    Will Jameis Winston be punished for shoving a referee during the game?

    Next Up: Florida

    Trends
    The total has gone over in five of Florida's last six games.
    Florida State is 3-7 straight-up in its last ten games against Florida.

    Ole Miss Rebels

    2014 Record: Straight-Up 8-3, Against-the-Spread 6-4-1

    Ole Miss was a longshot to make the College Football Playoff. The Rebels would have needed to win out including beating Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl and most likely required Alabama to lose to Auburn so Ole Miss could get into the SEC Championship. With two losses, the Rebels had their work cut out for them.

    What Ole Miss wasn't counting on was getting manhandled by Arkansas. The Razorbacks forced six turnovers and Arkansas stomped all over Ole Miss' playoff hopes with a 30-0 victory.

    The Rebels have now dropped three straight SEC games and Arkansas, after losing 17 straight conference contests, has back-to-back shutouts for the first time since joining the SEC in 1992.

    Next Up: Mississippi State

    Trends
    Mississippi State is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven road games against Ole Miss.
    Ole Miss is 5-1 in its last six games at home.

    Group of 5


    Marshall looked mediocre in a 23-18 win over UAB. The Thundering Herd kept their perfect season alive but unimpressive victories won't be enough to push the Group of 5 frontrunner into the College Football Playoff rankings.

    Marshall, Memphis, Northern Illinois, Colorado State and Boise State are vying for the at-large berth in one of the prime New Year's bowls. None of the Group of 5 members has cracked the College Football Playoff rankings.

    Strength of schedule has been cited as the reason for keeping these non-Power Conference teams out of the rankings. Marshall has played the 126th out of 128th ranked schedule, no marquee games remain on any of the Group of 5 schedules.

    One of these teams will get invited to play in a big bowl game but no Group of 5 team will participate in the inaugural College Football Playoff.



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