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    America East (03/06/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.


     
    Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.
     
    We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!
     
    PredictionMachine.com has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 84-54 (61% ATS and O/U), through 2013. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.
     
    When: March 8-15
     
    Where: Albany, NY
     
    The automatic bid goes to: Vermont (51.8%)
     
    The Catamounts could make a case for an at-large bid even if they don’t win the AEC Tournament. Vermont finished with at least 20 wins for the sixth straight season and are currently 74th overall in our Power Rankings. The AEC is theirs to lose.
     
    And if they lose: Stony Brook (22.5%)
     
    This could be the year that Stony Brook finally breaks through and participates in the NCAA Tournament. The Seawolves handed Vermont its only conference loss of the season.
     
    Bid Thief:
     
    Hartford: The Hawks have won six of their last seven games and will be trying to win their first ever AEC Tournament Title.
     
    Odds to win the America East (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament) 

    Seed Team Final Title Game Champ.
    1 Vermont 87.8 70.2 51.8
    8 New Hampshire 12.2 4.3 0.9
    4 Albany 69.1 20.5 9.9
    5 UMBC 30.9 5.1 1.5
    3 Hartford 73.9 32.3 11.2
    6 Binghamton 26.1 7.3 1.7
    2 Stony Brook 81.2 54.5 22.5
    7 Maine 18.8 6.1 0.7

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