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Big 12 (03/09/14)

John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
By John Ewing
Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.


 
Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.
 
We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!
 
PredictionMachine.com has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 84-54 (61% ATS and O/U), through 2013. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.
 
When: March 12-15
 
Where: Kansas City, MO
 
The automatic bid goes to: Kansas (30.5%)
 
The Jayhawks have won six of the last eight Big 12 Championships, the only other team to win in that span, Missouri, now plays in the SEC. Kansas is the best team in one of the nation’s most difficult conferences.
 
And if they lose: Oklahoma (13.6%)
 
If Kansas falters, you could almost pick any other team in the tournament to win. Though the smart money would be on the Sooners. Oklahoma is 8th in offensive efficiency and average 82.5 points/game.
 
Bid Thief:
 
Oklahoma State: The Cowboys survived a seven game losing streak and the suspension of their best player to be sitting firmly on the bubble. Oklahoma State needs a deep tournament run to solidify an invitation.
 
Odds to win the Big 12 (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament) 

Seed Team Final Title Game Champ.
1 Kansas  64.6  45.4  30.5
2 Oklahoma  53.5  31.4  13.6
4 Iowa St.  55.9  21.2  10.6
3 Texas  52.2  23.9  10.6
7 Baylor  39.3  21.8  9.4
8 Oklahoma State  24.1  12.9  7.2
5 Kansas St.  44.1  14.6  6.6
6 West Virginia  47.9  18.8  6.4
9 Texas Tech  11.3  6.1  3.4
10 TCU  7.3  4.1  1.7

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