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    Metro Atlantic (03/05/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.


     
    Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.
     
    We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!
     
    PredictionMachine.com has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 84-54 (61% ATS and O/U). For access to conference tournament picks, click here.
     
    When: March 6-10
     
    Where: Springfield, MA
     
    The automatic bid goes to: Manhattan (28.0%)
     
    The championship game will most likely be the rubber match between Manhattan and Iona, the teams split their regular season meetings. The Jaspers are our most likely MAAC Champion because they have a more favorable path to the title.
     
    And if they lose: Iona (25.5%)
     
    Iona is the best team in this conference, in the most likely title game, Iona vs. Manhattan, the Gaels win 54% of the time by an average score of 78-76. Iona’s more difficult semifinal matchup is preventing us from crowning them the MAAC Champions.
     
    Bid Thieves:
     
    Canisius: If the Golden Griffins can get past Iona in the semifinals, the MAAC Title game would be a coin flip.
     
    Odds to win the MACC Tournament (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament) 

    Seed Team Final Title Game Champ.
    1 Iona 71.4 45.0 25.5
    8/9 Rider/Monmouth 28.7 11.3 4.3
    4 Canisius 60.1 27.4 13.7
    5 Siena 40.0 16.3 7.8
    3 Quinnipiac 57.9 25.5 11.2
    6/11 Marist/Niagara 42.1 15.4 6.2
    2 Manhattan 73.7 48.8 28.0
    7/10 St. Peter's/Fairfield 26.3 10.4 3.5

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