New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    Expected Points for Super Bowl LI (02/06/17)

    By Frank Brank @realfrankbrank


    Super Bowl LI featured possibly the greatest quarterback and coach orchestrating the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick won their fifth Super Bowl together and continue to show dominance amongst the league. This game was not much different. We'll use our new metric, Expected Points, to evaluate the game.

    Tom Brady and the Patriots were getting run out of the building following a pick six to make the game 21-0. They only stood a 9.2% chance to win at that point. After the Falcons opened the second half scoring with another touchdown, they found themselves leading by 25 points. That's all New England's defense would allow.

    As Atlanta fell into prevent defense and was not able to move the ball or run clock into the second half, Brady and the Patriots offense made their move. A number of drops in the first half by the New England receivers really cost their offense some yardage. However, they were off and running in the second half, as one would have expected from the start.

    Per Expected Points, we would have anticipated the Patriots win the game 72.4% of the time. The reasoning behind the difficulties for the Patriots were their turnovers that gave the Falcons short and nonexistent fields to score points.

    LeGarrette Blount fumbled early, which was enough to phase him out of the game for Belichick. Brady followed with a pick six in the first half. The uncharacteristic mistakes by the Patriots put them in the unlikely hole before being dug out by the most accomplished quarterback of all time.

    Atlanta was out-gained by more than two hundred yards (!!!) while the Patriots only committed 23 yards in penalties. The final score, per Expected Points, was anticipated to be 37.4 to 24.9 in favor of the Patriots. The margin was similar at 34 to 28, but it was a bit more difficult than the usual method.

    The biggest swing on the Falcons' side of the ball was with only three minutes left in the game. At 2nd-and-long, leading by eight points, Matt Ryan was sacked. This created a 3rd-and-long that didn't necessarily need to be converted to put the game on ice. Ryan completed a pass to Mohammed Sanu short of the marker that was well within field goal range. However, a holding penalty brought the ball back. An incomplete pass and punt would follow. A few minutes later, the game was headed to overtime.

    In all, the Patriots deserved to win the game, but they just made it a bit more difficult on themselves this time.


    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    Super Bowl LI Key Plays (02/06/17)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    Super Bowl LI Immediate Reaction (02/05/17)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    The Predictalator

    05/10/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now into its second month, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides and totals continue to remain extremely profitable despite a recent run of bad variance to start May. The Predictalator's record of 272-250 on sides and totals this season doesn't look all that impressive, but that's because the simulations have sided with underdogs more often than favorites. Through May 9, the Predictalator has generated $547 for an average $50 bettor. "Normal" or better sides, totals, and run lines (our strongest edges) are 14-10 (+$118) season-to-date.

    The NBA Playoffs continue on in the Second Round and the Predictalator has been profitable on both sides and totals in this year's postseason. Despite being just 16-19 (45.7%) ATS in the NBA Postseason, the Predictalator has generated $46 of total profit, which is a testament to our play value recommendations. Totals have been the real moneymaker in this postseason though, as all playabale totals are 19-15 (55.9%) for a solid profit of $168.

    The NHL Playoffs have featured some very tight lines posted by oddsmakers, which has led to lower volume for the Predictalator. That hasn't let to less profits though. The Predictalator has posted 10 NHL positions (ML, O/U, or PL) in May, going 8-2 (80%) on those positions for a profit of $87. It is rare to find a big edge in the NHL this late in the year, but the Predictalator continues to chip away on small edges to provide solid returns.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB Risers & Fallers - Power Rankings
    Mark Dankenbring discusses the biggest risers and fallers in our MLB Power Rankings over the course of the past week.

    MLB Futures Picks - Who to bet for the World Series
    Each Monday during the 2017 season, we will review free MLB Futures value picks.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com