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After each play in an NFL, college football, college basketball or NBA game and after each half inning an every MLB game, the Predictalator simulates the rest of the game 50,000 times to determine the projected score and the likelihood of either team winning. Simulations of the rest of each game 50,000 times are conducted utilizing PredictionMachine.com’s Predictalator technology and simulation engines.
Find games involving your favorite teams easier with My Teams or check out live win probability charts from Recent Games. In the App (iTunes and Google Play Store), notifications are available to get updates at the end of each quarter, half or game and when major plays occur in the game to significantly change the projected outcome.
To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take the in-game technology to the next level to review three of the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently. The weekly analysis will review one play that could have resulted in a major upset, one controversial coaching decision and one play that dictated the team that covered the spread.
Super Bowl XLVII GAMECHANGERS
Jim Harbaugh criticized the officiating after the game. The San Francisco 49er’s head coach was upset that pass interference or defensive holding was not called on cornerback Jimmy Smith during the 49ers fourth-and-goal play at the end of the game that targeted wide receiver Michael Crabtree. Prior to the play San Francisco’s win probability was 26.6%. Had a penalty been called, the 49ers get a new set of downs. With the extra attempts to score the 49ers win probability jumps to 69.5% with a projected final score 35-34.
Early in the 2nd quarter the 49ers are driving down the field. They trail the Ravens 7-3, but they have the ball at the Baltimore 24-yard line. LaMichael James rushes around the right end and, in an effort to gain extra yards, is striped of the ball. For the final time this year, fumble recovery in the NFL is random. Baltimore pounces on the ball and ten plays later scores a touchdown. After the fumble, San Francisco’s win probability was 53.1%, with a projected final score of 21-20. Prior to the fumble San Francisco’s win probability was 67.7% with a projected final score of 26-20 - good for a 49ers cover at -3.5 (or even at -4.5 where it closed).
A look at two coaching decisions, one by the Ravens and one by the 49ers, which may or may not have impacted the game.
With 3:12 left in the 2nd quarter, the Ravens are leading the 49ers 14-3. On fourth-and-nine Baltimore lines up for a 31-yard field goal attempt. The Ravens run a trick play, place kicker Justin Tucker scrambles around the left end but is pushed out of bounds just short of the first down. The 49ers take over possession and at this point Baltimore’s win probability is 70.3% with a projected final score of 24-17. Prior to the play, the Raven’s win probability was 76.7% with a projected final score of 27-17. Had the Raven’s successfully converted the fake field goal and picked up the first down their win probability increases to 80.7% with a projected score of 30-19. If the Ravens attempt the field goal and convert, their win probability becomes 77.3% with a projected final score of 29-19. This is a play that probably will not be remembered given the power outage that caused a 34-minute delay and the 49ers furious comeback that came up short. Nevertheless, had San Francisco scored a touchdown at the end of the game the 49ers would have taken a one-point lead and most likely would have attempted a two-point conversion to go up by three points. At this point, the announcers would have reminded everyone of how John Harbaugh passed on an easy field goal at the end of the first half.
With 7:14 left in the 4th quarter, Joe Flacco completes a pass to Anquan Boldin on second-and-eight that the referees rule as a first down. Jim Harbaugh challenges the ruling on the field and the play is overturned. Had the ruling on the field stood, the Ravens win probability is 68.3% with a projected score of 34-32. However, Harbaugh successfully challenges the ruling and now the Ravens have the ball third-and-one from their own 45-yard line. At this point Baltimore’s win probability is 65.1% with a projected final score of 34-32. Harbaugh challenged a play that made very little difference in the game. In order to do so he risked one of his final two timeouts. This is a classic case of high risk, low reward.