New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    Hypothetical Quarterback Changes (12/12/16)

    By Frank Brank @realfbra


    After a brutal injury, a quarterback controversy, and a less worrisome injury, we'll examine the differences of Ryan Tannehill and Matt Moore, Dak Prescott and Tony Romo, and Matt Stafford and Dan Orlovsky. To do so, we'll simulate each remaining game 50,000 times for each quarterback on their respective teams.



    Matt Moore isn't as big of a step down from Tannehill than one would expect. Moore is one of the better backups in the league, statistically speaking. This also assumes Tannehill's season thus far isn't a career-changing moment as we should all expect him to regress to his career numbers, in some regard, until we have a larger sample of career-high play.




    The Prescott-Romo saga doesn't seem to be the story the media wants it to be. Jerry Jones and Jason Garret made it clear Romo would not be replacing Dak Prescott. Our simulation doesn't provide a clear answer for them, either. Romo does have the advantage of being 0.8 points per game better than Prescott. Romo is the better passer, especially in downfield situations. However, Prescott's ability to avoid turnovers gives him an advantage to close the gap on accuracy and downfield passes. We should also note that this assumes there would be no rust on Romo's game, which would be a tough assumption to make.




    Matt Stafford seems to be fine but he'll be playing less than 100% for the rest of the season. In the hypothetical situation that Stafford does not turn out to be able to play, Dan Orlovsky would fill that spot. Orlovsky is quite a step down. Not only is Stafford having his career year, Orlovsky is one of the worst backups and has very little game experience over the last few years. Stafford didn't look great on Sunday against the Bears, but it would be a hard case to make that he's nearly five points per game worse, the difference between him and Orlovsky, with his injury.
    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 15 (12/15/16)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    NFL Week 14 Daily Fantasy Targets (12/09/16)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    06/26/2017 Highlight: With the MLB season almost reaching its midpoint, we can take a look back at our Win Total Picks released at the beginning of the season to see where things currently stand. We released 22 playable win totals and at this point in the season, 15 of those 22 plays (68.2%) are on pace to be winners by the end of the season. Of the nine "normal or better" win totals that we released, seven of nine (77.8%) are looking like winners at this point.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB Futures Picks
    Each Monday during the 2017 season we take a look at MLB betting markets and identify the best values on teams to win their division and the World Series.

    Top Teams in NBA History
    We use advanced statistical methods to rank past great championship teams against the most recent NBA championship and powerhouse teams.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com