New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    Gronk's Injury Impact (12/01/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    Losing Gronk would change everything for the Patriots (in the playoffs).



    The New England Patriots perfect season came to an end with a 30-24 overtime loss to the Denver Broncos Sunday night. The bigger storyline coming out of the game was a potential serious knee injury to star tight end Rob Gronkowski.


    An MRI Monday confirmed that Gronk has a bruised his right knee and no tears. He is not expected to play in Week 13 against the Eagles, is considered week to week and should return during the regular season. That is great news for Pats fans but what if the injury to Gronkowski lingers or the tight end gets hurt again? What could the possible loss of Gronk mean to the Patriots chances of winning back-to-back Super Bowls?

    New England has lost Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Dion Lewis and Brandon LaFell for varying lengths of time but all of those injuries would pale in comparison to the loss of Gronkowski. The All-Pro tight end has one of the highest point impacts of any non-quarterback in the NFL.

    Of course that comes with a caveat. The defending champs would miss Gronk but only in the postseason. Over the final five games (23rd in strength of schedule) of the regular season, New England would be greater than 60 percent likely to win each game and by more than a touchdown on average even without the starting tight end playing. With ten wins already under their belt, the Pats are 100 percent likely to make the playoffs if Gronk plays or not.

    The power of the Gronk is felt in the playoffs when the competition increases. For example, in the most likely Super Bowl (Arizona vs. New England) Gronkowski is worth 1.6 points. That might not sound like much, but it is enough to make the Patriots the most likely team to win the Super Bowl (21.5 percent). If the third highest scoring tight end of all-time were to be unavailable during the Patriots playoff run, New England's chance of repeating drops to 17.3 percent (3rd best behind Arizona and Carolina).

    If the Patriots want to win the Super Bowl, it is best to rest Gronk now and have him healthy for the playoffs.

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    NFL Trends Week 13 (12/01/15)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    GameChangers Week 12 (11/30/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    08/09/2017 Highlight: Football season is slowly approaching and as we use our ResultsFinder tool to look back on previous seasons, we can see that ATS picks in the NFL regular season have topped 56% ATS four times in seven years, and have been profitable in all but one season on the site. NFL Playoff picks are also a stellar 50-25 (67% ATS) in our history.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    Fantasy Sports Partnership
    Prediction Machine has partnered up with Fantasy Guru Elite. Read the blog from our Business Manager, Rob Pizzola, to learn more.

    NFL Preview - In-Depth Analysis
    In the most likely Super Bowl, the New England Patriots defeat the Seattle Seahawks. Check out in-depth analysis for every team in the league.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com