2012 MLB Preview

Last Updated: 3/8/2012 4:00 PM ET

For our complete MLB 2012 Preview, please see our Power Rankings, Over/Under Win Total Picks, Standings Projections and Playoff Probabilities and Division-by-division Breakdowns. Picks packages for every MLB game on the money-line, over/under and run-line are now available in the shop. Last season, all "normal" or better ML and O/U plays went 100-62 (62%) in baseball for a +1,475 return using play value recommendations for a normal 50 player. All playable money-line plays were 54% and +1291. All playable O/U plays hit 56% and all playable run-line plays hit 58%.

The Predictalator has played every 2012 MLB game 50,000 times before it's actually played. Based on that analysis, we present projected standings as well as the highest and lowest win totals for each team in the 50,000 seasons that were played. We also assess the likelihood that any team makes the playoffs (as a division or wild card winner) and then what teams do when they get there.

Please note that all percentages are rounded to the whole percent. A team listed as having a 0% chance of something still can do it. To round to 1%, a team must achieve the goal 251 times in the 50,000 seasons played.

Projected Standings (based on 2012 MLB season played 50,000 times)

NL East
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
Philadelphia Phillies 92.3 69.7
Atlanta Braves 85.7 76.3
Washington Nationals 82.8 79.2
Miami Marlins 82.8 79.2
New York Mets 79.8 82.2


NL Central
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
Milwaukee Brewers 89.8 72.2
St. Louis Cardinals 83.4 78.6
Cincinnati Reds 83.0 79.0
Chicago Cubs 73.4 88.6
Pittsburgh Pirates 72.4 89.6
Houston Astros 65.1 96.9


NL West
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
San Francisco Giants 85.1 76.9
Los Angeles Dodgers 80.2 81.8
Arizona Diamondbacks 80.1 81.9
San Diego Padres 78.8 83.2
Colorado Rockies 77.8 84.2


AL East
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
Boston Red Sox 90.2 71.8
New York Yankees 88.8 73.2
Tampa Bay Rays 85.6 76.4
Toronto Blue Jays 81.9 80.1
Baltimore Orioles 68.1 93.9


AL Central
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
Detroit Tigers 86.5 75.5
Chicago White Sox 80.3 81.7
Cleveland Indians 78.9 83.1
Kansas City Royals 73.5 88.5
Minnesota Twins 70.7 91.3


AL West
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
Texas Rangers 94.8 67.2
Los Angeles Angels 88.1 73.9
Oakland Athletics 78.9 83.1
Seattle Mariners 73.0 89.0

Playoff Probabilities (based on 2012 MLB season played 50,000 times)

   
Team Division Win Wild Card Win League Win World Series Win
Philadelphia Phillies 60% 19% 30% 16%
Texas Rangers 59% 23% 26% 16%
Boston Red Sox 40% 34% 19% 11%
Milwaukee Brewers 45% 15% 17% 9%
New York Yankees 36% 32% 16% 8%
Los Angeles Angels 38% 31% 16% 8%
St. Louis Cardinals 25% 21% 9% 5%
San Francisco Giants 35% 14% 10% 5%
Atlanta Braves 15% 27% 8% 4%
Tampa Bay Rays 22% 28% 8% 4%
Detroit Tigers 57% 13% 10% 4%
Cincinnati Reds 25% 20% 7% 2%
Los Angeles Dodgers 22% 16% 4% 2%
Arizona Diamondbacks 22% 16% 4% 2%
Washington Nationals 11% 17% 4% 1%
Miami Marlins 10% 17% 3% 1%
New York Mets 4% 9% 1% 1%
Chicago White Sox 20% 8% 2% 1%
Chicago Cubs 3% 1% 0% 0%
Pittsburgh Pirates 1% 1% 0% 0%
Houston Astros 1% 0% 0% 0%
San Diego Padres 11% 4% 1% 0%
Colorado Rockies 10% 3% 1% 0%
Toronto Blue Jays 2% 13% 1% 0%
Baltimore Orioles 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cleveland Indians 18% 7% 1% 0%
Kansas City Royals 3% 1% 0% 0%
Minnesota Twins 2% 0% 0% 0%
Oakland Athletics 2% 9% 0% 0%
Seattle Mariners 1% 1% 0% 0%

For our complete MLB 2012 Preview, please see our Power Rankings, Over/Under Win Total Picks, Division-by-division Breakdowns. Picks packages for every MLB game on the money-line, over/under and run-line are now available in the shop. Last season, all "normal" or better ML and O/U plays went 100-62 (62%) in baseball for a +1,475 return using play value recommendations for a normal 50 player. All playable money-line plays were 54% and +1291. All playable O/U plays hit 56% and all playable run-line plays hit 58%.

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The Predictalator

The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (home field advantage) and weather in each game.

04/14/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the week of April 7th - 13th, one could find that all highlighted, MLB "normal" or better picks went 26-19 (58% ML, O/U, RL). This includes "normal" over/under picks going 10-4 (71% O/U). All-time (since the start of the 2012 season), all normal over/under MLB plays are 270-212 (56% O/U).

As the regular season concludes, NBA plays are heating up. All normal plays for the week in the NBA went 7-4 (64% ATS & O/U). Total picks continue to be strong, going 4-2 (67% O/U) with "normal" picks last week. Such "normal" plays are 43-32 (57% O/U) since the beginning of the year in the NBA.

The Predictalator plays every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. This provides us the ability to assign probabilities to the likelihood of just about any outcome occurring in any contest including straight-up, against-the-spread and over/under winners of each game.

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