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    Heat Streak and Props (03/20/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    The Heat are proud owners of the second-longest winning streak in NBA history. With this comes prop bets, below we look for value.

    The Miami Heat overcame a 17-point deficit, the largest they have faced in six weeks, versus Boston Monday night to win their 23rd game in a row. This is now the second-longest winning streak in NBA history. The odds of the Heat winning 23 games in a row are 1 in 2,500. The Heat are trying to best the 1971-72 Lakers’ record of 33 consecutive wins. With the streak has come media attention; with the media attention has come prop bets from offshore sportsbooks. Below are three prop bets that we will examine for value.

    How many games will the Heat's winning streak last?      

    Over/Under      29

    Again, the Heat have won 23 games in a row, they have sixteen games remaining and by our simulations will be favored to win all but one. That one game is on the road in San Antonio. After 50,000 simulations the Spurs win 54.7% of the time by an average score of 103.6 to 101.9. (Note: this simulation assumes Tony Parker plays) Why is this important? Miami has six games before they face the Spurs (four of them on the road), if they win all six that would bring their streak to 29 wins in a row. In order to feel comfortable taking the over on 29 wins you need to believe that the Heat can win the thirtieth game in San Antonio.

    Will the Heat set the NBA record of 34 straight wins?       

    Yes                  6/1       

    If you believe they can set a new NBA record then that means you believe they win in San Antonio, that means you believe they win their next eleven games. Of those eleven games six are on the road but only four come against teams with winning records. At 6/1 odds the sports books are saying the Heat are likely to pull this off 14.3% of the time (1/(1+6)). When we simulate the remainder of their season the odds of the Heat winning their next eleven games is 7.4%. This is another wager without value.

    Will the Heat win every remaining game in the Season?   

    Yes                  10/1     

    In order to place a wager at 10/1 odds you need the Heat to win their remaining sixteen games 9.1% of the time. After 50,000 simulations the odds of the Heat winning sixteen games in a row is 3.1%. If Miami were to win their remaining games their streak would be 39 games in a row. The odds of the Heat winning 39 games in a row are 1 in 100,000.

    There is no value in these three props, please do yourself a favor and save your money. Instead, think about getting down on Saint Mary’s plus the points against Memphis, for the rest of NCAA Tournament picks click here.

    Below are the Heat's remaining games and their odds to win each.

    Date Team Win % Odds Streak Continues
    20-Mar @ Cleveland 81.0% 81.0%
    22-Mar Detroit 90.7% 73.5%
    24-Mar Charlotte 91.8% 67.4%
    25-Mar @ Orlando 82.5% 55.6%
    27-Mar @ Chicago 70.7% 39.3%
    29-Mar @ New Orleans 77.4% 30.4%
    31-Mar @ San Antonio 44.9% 13.7%
    2-Apr New York 79.4% 10.9%
    5-Apr @ Charlotte 87.9% 9.5%
    6-Apr Philadelphia 90.1% 8.6%
    9-Apr Milwaukee 86.9% 7.5%
    10-Apr @ Washington 77.2% 5.8%
    12-Apr Boston 85.4% 4.9%
    14-Apr Chicago 86.0% 4.2%
    15-Apr @ Cleveland 80.9% 3.4%
    17-Apr Orlando 91.9% 3.1%

     

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