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    NBA Finals MVP (06/17/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    Who is going to win the Finals MVP, LeBron James or Danny Green? A look at updated NBA Finals MVP odds and series odds. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.

    “Danny Green at 2/1 is no question the frontrunner for MVP if the Spurs can win it all, which is quite amazing considering he was not even offered odds prior to the start of the Finals. He was included in “Any Other Spurs Player” which was paying 30/1 and we hardly took a bet. However, LeBron James remains the odds on favorite at 4/5 even though the Heat trail in the Series. With the rest of the NBA Finals being played in Miami, the Heat are still a -125 (4/5) favorite to repeat as NBA Champions.”

    Kevin Bradley, Sportsbook Manager, Bovada.lv

    Straight from the horse’s mouth. A 3-2 series lead for the Spurs does not mean much, at least in the gambling world, as the Heat are the favorites to win the series and LeBron James is the favorite to win the Finals MVP.

    Updated Series Price

    • San Antonio Spurs, 21/20
    • Miami Heat, 4/5

    According to our updated series odds Miami wins the Finals 52.1% of the time. At 4/5 the odds imply that the Heat win it 55.6% of the time, no value in betting the series price for the Heat.

    For the Spurs, getting 21/20 odds implies that they win it 48.8% of the time. We give San Antonio a 47.9% chance of winning, no value in betting the series price for the Spurs either.

    Updated NBA Finals MVP odds

    LeBron James: 4/5 odds

    Why he will win: He is averaging 21.6 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 6.8 assists in the Finals. His only true competition is Wade who just showed up to play in Game 4.

    Why he won’t win: The Spurs have a 47.9% chance of winning the series, only one player in NBA history has been named MVP and not been on the winning team; Jerry West.

    Danny Green: 2/1 odds

    Why he will win: Leads the team in scoring in the Finals; 28 out of the last 30 Finals MVPs led their teams in scoring.

    Why he won’t win: Only holds a 9-point scoring lead over Tony Parker. He is shooting 65.8% from long range, he has to regress, right?

    Player Odds
    LeBron James 4/5
    Danny Green 2/1
    Tony Parker 5/1
    Tim Duncan 10/1
    Dwyane Wade 15/1

    Odds before the NBA Finals started

    Player Odds
    LeBron James 4/9
    Dwyane Wade 8/1
    Chris Bosh 20/1
    Chris Andersen 99/1
    Any Other Heat Player 35/1
    Tony Parker 9/2
    Tim Duncan 7/1
    Manu Ginobili 20/1
    Kawhi Leonard 30/1
    Any Other Spurs Player 30/1

     

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