New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    NBA Playoff Odds

    Last Updated: 4/17/2014 at 12:00 AM ET

    The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NBA Playoffs. Each playoff is played individually, with the team that wins the series in each unique instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

    The Miami Heat, two-time defending NBA champions and the East's second seed, are the favorites to win the title at 25.3% and are followed by the top three teams in the West - Oklahoma City Thunder (17.8%), Los Angeles Clippers (13.2%) and San Antonio Spurs (11.3%). This essentially an exercise in probability as the Thunder and Clippers would be clear favorites in a best-of-seven series against the Heat and the Spurs would be essentially 50/50 versus Miami. The main reason why the Heat finish as our favorites is that Miami makes it to the NBA Finals more than 50% of the time, while the ultra-competitive Western Conference does not have a champion more than 27.3% likely to face the East winner. As a matter of context, last year at this time, Miami was both a clear Eastern Conference favorite and favored in every NBA Finals series, making the team more than 50% likely to win it all before the playoffs started.

    Even with shuffling of seeds in the final few nights of the regular season, no team pulls off an upset by seed in the first round of the playoffs, though Toronto vs. Brooklyn, Los Angeles vs. Golden State and Houston vs. Portland are likely to go the distance. The "Super Six" teams oft-discussed on this site - Miami, Oklahoma City, Los Angeles, San Antonio, Houston and the Indiana Pacers - combine to win 85.7% of all championships. Among other teams, only the Chicago Bulls even have a greater than seven percent chance to make the NBA Finals. Despite Miami leading all teams in championship odds, the Eastern Conference is 57.5% likely to win the NBA Championship. The only four teams without at least a one percent chance to win the title are from the Eastern Conference.

    NBA Playoff Odds (based on 2014 NBA Playoffs played 50,000 times):

    Region Seed Team Conf Semifinals Conf Finals NBA Finals Champ.
    Eastern 1 Ind 82.8% 48.3% 20.2% 7.1%
    Eastern 8 Atl 17.2% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0%
    Eastern 4 Chi 66.9% 35.1% 12.6% 4.0%
    Eastern 5 Was 33.1% 13.2% 2.8% 0.5%
    Eastern 3 Tor 59.7% 15.9% 7.2% 1.8%
    Eastern 6 Bkn 40.3% 9.4% 3.8% 0.9%
    Eastern 2 Mia 89.6% 71.5% 52.0% 28.2%
    Eastern 7 Cha 10.4% 3.2% 1.1% 0.1%
    Region Seed Team Conf Semifinals Conf Finals NBA Finals Champ.
    Western 1 SA 68.2% 40.0% 19.7% 11.3%
    Western 8 Dal 31.8% 11.6% 3.4% 1.3%
    Western 4 Hou 66.5% 35.2% 15.3% 8.1%
    Western 5 Por 33.5% 13.2% 4.2% 1.7%
    Western 3 LAC 66.5% 34.4% 20.6% 13.2%
    Western 6 GS 33.5% 13.5% 6.3% 2.9%
    Western 2 OKC 74.1% 44.0% 27.3% 17.8%
    Western 7 Mem 25.9% 8.1% 3.1% 1.2%
    Print This Article
    NEXT ARTICLE
    NBA Picks - 11/23/14
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    ARCHIVE

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop.

    11/17/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of November 10th - 16th, one could find that with five sports (NFL, College Football, NBA, College Basketball and NHL) all in action at the same time, value based betting opportunities have been prevalent. In the last week, all featured "normal" or better against-the-spread plays went 28-13 (68% ATS and PL). This includes a stellar start to the college basketball season as the Predictalator is on fire. All "normal" or better against-the-spread plays in the first week of the season went 19-8 (70% ATS).

    And, while there were not any published "normal" NFL sides for the week, normal or better NFL halftimes stayed strong by going 4-0 ATS in Week 11. Over the last five weeks, all playable full game against-the-spread NFL picks are 35-21 (63% ATS). In that same stretch, "normal or better halftime picks in the NFL are 15-7 (68% ATS).

    Finally, in the NHL, all "normal" or better picks went 18-12 (60% ML, O/U and PL) over the last week. In the last three weeks, all normal or better NHL picks are 53-33 (62% ML, O/U and PL).

    Ad

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    NFL Picks - Week 12
    For Week 12 in the NFL, there are a total of five plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better, as well as 12 playable against-the-spread opinions. See Dallas at New York and more.

    NFL Trends - Week 12
    NFL Week 12 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.

    FIND US ONLINE


    Statistical Information Provided by: SportsData © 2012

    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.
    Home | The Predictalator | Features | Privacy |  Customer Support |  Media Contact |  Sitemap
    © 2010-2014 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com