New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    NBA Playoff Odds

    Last Updated: 4/17/2014 at 12:00 AM ET

    The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NBA Playoffs. Each playoff is played individually, with the team that wins the series in each unique instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

    The Miami Heat, two-time defending NBA champions and the East's second seed, are the favorites to win the title at 25.3% and are followed by the top three teams in the West - Oklahoma City Thunder (17.8%), Los Angeles Clippers (13.2%) and San Antonio Spurs (11.3%). This essentially an exercise in probability as the Thunder and Clippers would be clear favorites in a best-of-seven series against the Heat and the Spurs would be essentially 50/50 versus Miami. The main reason why the Heat finish as our favorites is that Miami makes it to the NBA Finals more than 50% of the time, while the ultra-competitive Western Conference does not have a champion more than 27.3% likely to face the East winner. As a matter of context, last year at this time, Miami was both a clear Eastern Conference favorite and favored in every NBA Finals series, making the team more than 50% likely to win it all before the playoffs started.

    Even with shuffling of seeds in the final few nights of the regular season, no team pulls off an upset by seed in the first round of the playoffs, though Toronto vs. Brooklyn, Los Angeles vs. Golden State and Houston vs. Portland are likely to go the distance. The "Super Six" teams oft-discussed on this site - Miami, Oklahoma City, Los Angeles, San Antonio, Houston and the Indiana Pacers - combine to win 85.7% of all championships. Among other teams, only the Chicago Bulls even have a greater than seven percent chance to make the NBA Finals. Despite Miami leading all teams in championship odds, the Eastern Conference is 57.5% likely to win the NBA Championship. The only four teams without at least a one percent chance to win the title are from the Eastern Conference.

    NBA Playoff Odds (based on 2014 NBA Playoffs played 50,000 times):

    Region Seed Team Conf Semifinals Conf Finals NBA Finals Champ.
    Eastern 1 Ind 82.8% 48.3% 20.2% 7.1%
    Eastern 8 Atl 17.2% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0%
    Eastern 4 Chi 66.9% 35.1% 12.6% 4.0%
    Eastern 5 Was 33.1% 13.2% 2.8% 0.5%
    Eastern 3 Tor 59.7% 15.9% 7.2% 1.8%
    Eastern 6 Bkn 40.3% 9.4% 3.8% 0.9%
    Eastern 2 Mia 89.6% 71.5% 52.0% 28.2%
    Eastern 7 Cha 10.4% 3.2% 1.1% 0.1%
    Region Seed Team Conf Semifinals Conf Finals NBA Finals Champ.
    Western 1 SA 68.2% 40.0% 19.7% 11.3%
    Western 8 Dal 31.8% 11.6% 3.4% 1.3%
    Western 4 Hou 66.5% 35.2% 15.3% 8.1%
    Western 5 Por 33.5% 13.2% 4.2% 1.7%
    Western 3 LAC 66.5% 34.4% 20.6% 13.2%
    Western 6 GS 33.5% 13.5% 6.3% 2.9%
    Western 2 OKC 74.1% 44.0% 27.3% 17.8%
    Western 7 Mem 25.9% 8.1% 3.1% 1.2%
    Print This Article
    NEXT ARTICLE
    MLB Picks - 5/27/2017
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    ARCHIVE

    The Predictalator

    05/10/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now into its second month, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides and totals continue to remain extremely profitable despite a recent run of bad variance to start May. The Predictalator's record of 272-250 on sides and totals this season doesn't look all that impressive, but that's because the simulations have sided with underdogs more often than favorites. Through May 9, the Predictalator has generated $547 for an average $50 bettor. "Normal" or better sides, totals, and run lines (our strongest edges) are 14-10 (+$118) season-to-date.

    The NBA Playoffs continue on in the Second Round and the Predictalator has been profitable on both sides and totals in this year's postseason. Despite being just 16-19 (45.7%) ATS in the NBA Postseason, the Predictalator has generated $46 of total profit, which is a testament to our play value recommendations. Totals have been the real moneymaker in this postseason though, as all playabale totals are 19-15 (55.9%) for a solid profit of $168.

    The NHL Playoffs have featured some very tight lines posted by oddsmakers, which has led to lower volume for the Predictalator. That hasn't let to less profits though. The Predictalator has posted 10 NHL positions (ML, O/U, or PL) in May, going 8-2 (80%) on those positions for a profit of $87. It is rare to find a big edge in the NHL this late in the year, but the Predictalator continues to chip away on small edges to provide solid returns.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Ad

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    NHL Stanley Cup Preview
    We simulate the Stanley Cup Finals 50,000 times to provide each team's probability of hoisting the Cup, and break down the strengths and weaknesses of each team.

    MLB - The So What?
    We use 50,000 simulations of the rest of the MLB season to analyze major personnel changes, including the returns of Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays lineup.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com