New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    NBA Playoff Odds

    Last Updated: 4/17/2014 at 12:00 AM ET

    The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NBA Playoffs. Each playoff is played individually, with the team that wins the series in each unique instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

    The Miami Heat, two-time defending NBA champions and the East's second seed, are the favorites to win the title at 25.3% and are followed by the top three teams in the West - Oklahoma City Thunder (17.8%), Los Angeles Clippers (13.2%) and San Antonio Spurs (11.3%). This essentially an exercise in probability as the Thunder and Clippers would be clear favorites in a best-of-seven series against the Heat and the Spurs would be essentially 50/50 versus Miami. The main reason why the Heat finish as our favorites is that Miami makes it to the NBA Finals more than 50% of the time, while the ultra-competitive Western Conference does not have a champion more than 27.3% likely to face the East winner. As a matter of context, last year at this time, Miami was both a clear Eastern Conference favorite and favored in every NBA Finals series, making the team more than 50% likely to win it all before the playoffs started.

    Even with shuffling of seeds in the final few nights of the regular season, no team pulls off an upset by seed in the first round of the playoffs, though Toronto vs. Brooklyn, Los Angeles vs. Golden State and Houston vs. Portland are likely to go the distance. The "Super Six" teams oft-discussed on this site - Miami, Oklahoma City, Los Angeles, San Antonio, Houston and the Indiana Pacers - combine to win 85.7% of all championships. Among other teams, only the Chicago Bulls even have a greater than seven percent chance to make the NBA Finals. Despite Miami leading all teams in championship odds, the Eastern Conference is 57.5% likely to win the NBA Championship. The only four teams without at least a one percent chance to win the title are from the Eastern Conference.

    NBA Playoff Odds (based on 2014 NBA Playoffs played 50,000 times):

    Region Seed Team Conf Semifinals Conf Finals NBA Finals Champ.
    Eastern 1 Ind 82.8% 48.3% 20.2% 7.1%
    Eastern 8 Atl 17.2% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0%
    Eastern 4 Chi 66.9% 35.1% 12.6% 4.0%
    Eastern 5 Was 33.1% 13.2% 2.8% 0.5%
    Eastern 3 Tor 59.7% 15.9% 7.2% 1.8%
    Eastern 6 Bkn 40.3% 9.4% 3.8% 0.9%
    Eastern 2 Mia 89.6% 71.5% 52.0% 28.2%
    Eastern 7 Cha 10.4% 3.2% 1.1% 0.1%
    Region Seed Team Conf Semifinals Conf Finals NBA Finals Champ.
    Western 1 SA 68.2% 40.0% 19.7% 11.3%
    Western 8 Dal 31.8% 11.6% 3.4% 1.3%
    Western 4 Hou 66.5% 35.2% 15.3% 8.1%
    Western 5 Por 33.5% 13.2% 4.2% 1.7%
    Western 3 LAC 66.5% 34.4% 20.6% 13.2%
    Western 6 GS 33.5% 13.5% 6.3% 2.9%
    Western 2 OKC 74.1% 44.0% 27.3% 17.8%
    Western 7 Mem 25.9% 8.1% 3.1% 1.2%
    Print This Article
    NEXT ARTICLE
    NBA Picks - 12/05/16
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    ARCHIVE

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    12/05/2016 Highlight: Using our ResultsFinder tool, the Predictalator enjoyed a solid Week 13 in the NFL, posting a 6-3 (66.7%) ATS record on all playable sides and a 5-3 (62.5%) record on all playable totals. The Predictalator's top total cashed with ease as the Jags & Broncos stayed way under the number, while our Free Pick winner also was a sweat-free cash with the Lions winning outright as six-point dogs in New Orleans.

    It was always going to be difficult for the Predictalator to replicate the epic 34-9 (79.1%) ATS record from Week 13 of college football, but Week 14 wasn't too shabby either. The Predictalator posted a 7-4 (63.6%) ATS record on all playable sides, including a Free Pick winner on Virginia Tech +10 in the ACC Championship Game. The Predictalator has posted a stellar 276-231 (54.4%) record on all playable sides this season.

    The Predictalator is off to a hot start in December college hoops, producing a 15-9 (62.5%) ATS record on "normal" or better sides. A $50 bettor would have profited $282 using our recommended wager sizes. NHL season also continues to produce dividends, as the Predictalator is 164-136 (54.7%) on all playable sides and totals this season. What makes this even more impressive is that the Predictalator has picked more underdogs than favorites this year!

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Ad

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    NFL Picks - Week 13
    The Predictalator has played each of this week's NFL games 50,000 times. See the Monday Night Football matchup between the Jets & Colts.

    NFL GameChangers - Week 13
    Frank Brank breaks down the big plays that decided the outcomes of two games in Week 13.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com