New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    NBA Playoff Odds

    Last Updated: 4/17/2014 at 12:00 AM ET

    The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NBA Playoffs. Each playoff is played individually, with the team that wins the series in each unique instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

    The Miami Heat, two-time defending NBA champions and the East's second seed, are the favorites to win the title at 25.3% and are followed by the top three teams in the West - Oklahoma City Thunder (17.8%), Los Angeles Clippers (13.2%) and San Antonio Spurs (11.3%). This essentially an exercise in probability as the Thunder and Clippers would be clear favorites in a best-of-seven series against the Heat and the Spurs would be essentially 50/50 versus Miami. The main reason why the Heat finish as our favorites is that Miami makes it to the NBA Finals more than 50% of the time, while the ultra-competitive Western Conference does not have a champion more than 27.3% likely to face the East winner. As a matter of context, last year at this time, Miami was both a clear Eastern Conference favorite and favored in every NBA Finals series, making the team more than 50% likely to win it all before the playoffs started.

    Even with shuffling of seeds in the final few nights of the regular season, no team pulls off an upset by seed in the first round of the playoffs, though Toronto vs. Brooklyn, Los Angeles vs. Golden State and Houston vs. Portland are likely to go the distance. The "Super Six" teams oft-discussed on this site - Miami, Oklahoma City, Los Angeles, San Antonio, Houston and the Indiana Pacers - combine to win 85.7% of all championships. Among other teams, only the Chicago Bulls even have a greater than seven percent chance to make the NBA Finals. Despite Miami leading all teams in championship odds, the Eastern Conference is 57.5% likely to win the NBA Championship. The only four teams without at least a one percent chance to win the title are from the Eastern Conference.

    NBA Playoff Odds (based on 2014 NBA Playoffs played 50,000 times):

    Region Seed Team Conf Semifinals Conf Finals NBA Finals Champ.
    Eastern 1 Ind 82.8% 48.3% 20.2% 7.1%
    Eastern 8 Atl 17.2% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0%
    Eastern 4 Chi 66.9% 35.1% 12.6% 4.0%
    Eastern 5 Was 33.1% 13.2% 2.8% 0.5%
    Eastern 3 Tor 59.7% 15.9% 7.2% 1.8%
    Eastern 6 Bkn 40.3% 9.4% 3.8% 0.9%
    Eastern 2 Mia 89.6% 71.5% 52.0% 28.2%
    Eastern 7 Cha 10.4% 3.2% 1.1% 0.1%
    Region Seed Team Conf Semifinals Conf Finals NBA Finals Champ.
    Western 1 SA 68.2% 40.0% 19.7% 11.3%
    Western 8 Dal 31.8% 11.6% 3.4% 1.3%
    Western 4 Hou 66.5% 35.2% 15.3% 8.1%
    Western 5 Por 33.5% 13.2% 4.2% 1.7%
    Western 3 LAC 66.5% 34.4% 20.6% 13.2%
    Western 6 GS 33.5% 13.5% 6.3% 2.9%
    Western 2 OKC 74.1% 44.0% 27.3% 17.8%
    Western 7 Mem 25.9% 8.1% 3.1% 1.2%
    Print This Article
    NEXT ARTICLE
    MLB Picks - 9/27/2016
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    ARCHIVE

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer and Halftime Picks can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    9/26/2016 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the week of September 19th through the 25th, one could find featured, "normal" or better football plays for the week went a combined 25-14 (64% ATS and O/U) with College Football adn the NFL.

    This includes the NFL Lock of the Week (Cleveland +10 at Miami), which is now 3-0 (100% ATS) to start the NFL season. All "normal" or better (greater than 57% confidence to cover) plays in the NFL through three weeks are 10-5 (67% ATS and O/U). Since launching in January 2010, this technology is 60%+ against-the-spread with NFL Locks of the Week (78-51 ATS) and 55% against-the-spread (723-598 ATS) picking all NFL games. The Predictalator is 44-20 (69% ATS) against-the-spread in NFL Playoff games.

    In College Football, the consistently strong, "normal" or better over/under plays went 13-7 (65% O/U) in Week 4 and have been profitable in more than 85% of weeks since the site launched prior to the 2010 season. Even with the brutal loss of the free pick (UCLA +3.5 against Stanford, which failed to cover after Stanford returned a fumble for a touchdown on UCLA's last second Hail Mary attempt), "normal" or better against-the-spread plays went 7-5 (58% ATS) for the week in College Football as well.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Ad

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    Fantasy Rankings - Rest of Season
    The Predictalator has run every remaining game in the 2016 season 50,000 times to rank all players based on their expected fantasy football output. See projections for every player.

    NFL GameChangers: Week 3
    Rob Pizzola breaks down a very questionable coaching decision and two major penalties that drastically impacted three different NFL games in Week 3.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com