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    NBA Playoff Probabilities (02/04/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing

    NBA Playoff Probabilities – Odds to win the NBA Finals

    Get out of here NFL, it's basketball season!

    This is the time of year where everything in the NBA begins to revolve around the postseason. Will your favorite team be playing after the 82nd game and are they legitimate title contenders?

    Each week, we will simulate the rest of the regular season and playoffs 50,000 times with updated player and team statistical information to provide up-to-date projected records, standings, playoff probabilities and odds to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy for each team in the NBA.

    Top storylines:

    Golden State is sitting pretty atop the Western Conference with the best record in the NBA. The Warriors are the only team in the league that ranks in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. A tremendous defense and an explosive offense has the Warriors as the favorites to win the NBA Championship.

    Oklahoma City has lost four of its last six games. The Thunder are currently tenth in the Western Conference standings, three games behind Phoenix for the final playoff spot. With a healthy Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, OKC is No. 9 in our Power Rankings, the sixth best team in the West. Yet OKC has just a 56.2% chance to reach the postseason.

    The Spurs dynasty is over. That's what some pundits were saying after San Antonio went 9-10 in the month of December. The defending champions flipped the script with a 10-4 record in January. The Spurs are currently the 7th seed in the West, near locks to make the playoffs (97.5%) and have a 5.9% chance to repeat.

    What do you need to know about Atlanta's 19-game winning streak, besides that it was snapped by New Orleans on Monday? The Hawks have become one of the league's most balanced teams. Atlanta is one of just four squads in the NBA to rank in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Hawks improbable run has increased their playoff odds from 6.5% (before the season started) to 100%.

    The Hawks are legit but the East still belongs to King James. The Cavs are on an 11-game winning streak and sit 5th in the Eastern Conference standings. During the streak Cleveland has outscored opponents by 13.3 points per 100 possessions, the best net efficiency in the NBA. LeBron and company have the third best odds to win the NBA Championship and the best in the East.

    NBA Playoff Probabilities

    Eastern Conference - Atlantic Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Playoffs% Finals SU Win%
    Toronto Raptors 33 16 52.7 29.3 100.0 3.6
    Brooklyn Nets 19 28 32.2 50.8 12.4 0.0
    Boston Celtics 17 30 30.6 51.4 6.9 0.0
    New York Knicks 10 39 19.8 63.2 0.0 0.0
    Philadelphia 76ers 11 39 17.5 64.5 0.0 0.0
    Eastern Conference - Central Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Playoffs% Finals SU Win%
    Chicago Bulls 30 19 52.1 29.9 100.0 11.8
    Cleveland Cavaliers 30 20 51.0 31.0 100.0 12.0
    Milwaukee Bucks 26 22 45.1 36.9 100.0 0.3
    Detroit Pistons 19 30 33.5 48.5 31.4 0.0
    Indiana Pacers 17 32 31.9 50.1 16.3 0.0
    Eastern Conference - Southeast Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Playoffs% Finals SU Win%
    Atlanta Hawks 40 9 60.4 21.6 100.0 7.1
    Washington Wizards 31 18 51.3 30.7 100.0 3.5
    Miami Heat 21 27 36.0 46.0 69.1 0.0
    Charlotte Hornets 21 27 35.6 46.4 63.5 0.0
    Orlando Magic 15 36 27.1 54.9 0.4 0.0
    Western Conference - Pacific Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Playoffs% Finals SU Win%
    Golden State Warriors 38 8 62.3 19.7 100.0 17.5
    Los Angeles Clippers 33 16 54.2 27.8 99.7 12.8
    Phoenix Suns 28 22 45.0 37.0 35.2 0.2
    Sacramento Kings 17 30 32.9 50.1 0.0 0.0
    Los Angeles Lakers 13 35 25.3 56.7 0.0 0.0
    Western Conference - Northwest Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Playoffs% Finals SU Win%
    Memphis Grizzlies 36 12 57.8 24.2 100.0 9.1
    Houston Rockets 33 15 53.2 28.8 99.3 2.7
    Dallas Mavericks 33 17 52.6 29.4 98.9 7.8
    San Antonio Spurs 30 18 51.6 30.4 97.5 5.9
    New Orleans Pelicans 26 22 43.1 38.9 13.9 0.0
    Western Conference - Southwest Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Playoffs% Finals SU Win%
    Portland Trail Blazers 33 16 53.4 29.6 99.3 3.2
    Oklahoma City Thunder 24 24 45.8 36.2 56.2 2.6
    Denver Nuggets 19 30 32.0 50.0 0.0 0.0
    Utah Jazz 17 31 30.7 51.3 0.0 0.0
    Minnesota Timberwolves 8 40 15.5 66.5 0.0 0.0

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