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    NBA Playoff Probabilities (03/24/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    NBA Playoff Probabilities – Odds to win the NBA Championship



    The playoffs start April 18th, we are less than a month away from the NBA's second season. Only five teams have clinched a playoff berth though many are locks to be in the postseason. The playoff picture is coming into focus, is your favorite team in position to win the title?

    Each week, we will simulate the rest of the regular season and playoffs 50,000 times with updated player and team statistical information to provide up-to-date projected records, standings, playoff probabilities and odds to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy for each team in the NBA.

    Top storylines:

    Thunderstruck. OKC has been playing shorthanded all season and it has only gotten worse for the Thunder. Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison are all out indefinitely but Russell Westbrook has picked up the slack. Westbrook has nine triple doubles on the season, his tenth was taken away by the NBA on Monday. How far can the Thunder point guard carry the team? OKC is greater than 80 percent likely to reach the playoffs but with the injuries, Oklahoma City has less than a one percent chance to win the title (down from 9.8 percent).

    Miami is the biggest playoff gainer. The Heat have added 38.1 percent to their postseason odds over the last two weeks. Miami is currently the seventh seed but would like to pass Milwaukee for the sixth seed to avoid playing Cleveland in the first round.

    Charlotte and Indiana, the two most likely teams to supplant Miami and Boston for the final spots in the East, have lost 17 percent and 38 percent in their playoff probabilities respectively since the start of March. Despite the downtrend, both clubs are more likely to reach the postseason than current eighth seed Boston.

    The Warriors title odds continue to increase. Golden State has a season high 27 percent chance of winning its first title since 1975. Steph Curry and crew are the only team to rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

    On the rise. The Clippers are playing their best basketballat the right time, not surprisingly this coincides with Blake Griffin's return from injury. The Clips have won four games in a row and could make a run at the third seed in the West. Los Angeles has seen its title odds increase the most, from 5.9 percent to 14.5 percent.

    NBA Playoff Probabilities

    Team Playoff% Conf. Quarters Conf. Semis Conf. Finals Finals
    Golden State Warriors 100.0 81.6 56.9 38.1 27.0
    Cleveland Cavaliers 100.0 88.1 54.3 41.6 22.1
    Los Angeles Clippers 100.0 68.9 42.0 24.4 14.5
    Atlanta Hawks 100.0 84.0 38.6 25.7 10.6
    San Antonio Spurs 100.0 54.1 28.0 12.0 6.4
    Dallas Mavericks 99.5 48.7 25.9 9.5 4.5
    Toronto Raptors 100.0 69.7 34.5 12.4 3.5
    Chicago Bulls 100.0 58.2 29.3 9.3 2.6
    Washington Wizards 100.0 49.2 26.3 8.8 2.4
    Houston Rockets 100.0 40.5 13.4 4.6 2.3
    Portland Trail Blazers 100.0 43.8 15.3 5.8 2.2
    Memphis Grizzlies 100.0 42.1 13.0 4.2 1.1
    Oklahoma City Thunder 80.9 17.4 4.6 1.3 0.5
    Miami Heat 84.9 19.7 8.4 1.4 0.3
    Boston Celtics 19.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
    Brooklyn Nets 23.2 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
    Charlotte Hornets 39.7 6.3 2.1 0.2 0.0
    Denver Nuggets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Detroit Pistons 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Indiana Pacers 38.0 5.8 2.0 0.3 0.0
    Los Angeles Lakers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Milwaukee Bucks 93.9 14.0 3.2 0.2 0.0
    Minnesota Timberwolves 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    New Orleans Pelicans 12.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
    New York Knicks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Orlando Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Philadelphia 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Phoenix Suns 6.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
    Sacramento Kings 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Utah Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

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