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    Playoff Probabilities (04/04/16)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    NBA Playoff Probabilities – Odds to win the NBA Championship

    There are just 12 days left until the NBA Playoffs. Ten teams have clinched a postseason berth and 11 other teams are officially eliminated from contention. That leaves nine teams jockeying for six playoff spots.

    In the weeks leading up to the postseason, we will simulate the rest of the regular season and playoffs 50,000 times with updated player and team statistical information to provide up-to-date playoff probabilities and odds to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy for each team in the NBA.

    Eastern Conference

    Only two of these teams in the East are going to get into the playoffs, which will it be?

    Indiana Pacers

    The Pacers are locks. Indiana has a 94.8 percent chance to remain in the top eight among the Eastern Conference teams. Of course they don't want to slip to the 8th seed and have to face the Cavs in the first round.

    Detroit Pistons

    Two weeks ago the Pistons had a 41.9 percent chance of getting into the playoffs. Now there is better than an 80 percent chance that postseason basketball returns to Detroit.

    Chicago Bulls

    The bad news is that the Bulls are two games behind Indiana and Detroit for the last spots. The good news is that Chicago holds the tiebreaker over the Pacers. Down two with five to go, the Bulls have just better than a one-in-five chance of sneaking into the postseason.

    Washington Wizards

    John Wall and crew are four games out of the last spot in the East. The Wizards will need to win out and get some help to sneak in. Washington has a 0.8 percent chance to do so.

    Western Conference

    It is a game of musical chairs out West, five teams vying for four seeds.

    Memphis Grizzlies

    The Grizzlies have lost six in a row and are just 2-8 in their last ten games. Injuries have played a big role (the team just signed their 28th player on the season), but Memphis is currently the 5-seed and has an 88.9 percent chance to make the playoffs.

    Portland Trail Blazers

    Just a half-game behind Memphis, Portland can overtake the Grizzlies for the 5-seed. A favorable schedule (three of the last four games are against non-playoff teams) gives Damian Lillard and company a 99.0 percent chance of reaching the postseason.

    Dallas Mavericks

    Of the teams out West, Dallas is the most likely to miss the playoffs (36.7 percent chance). The Mavs are currently the 7th seed but that is just one game better than Houston, which sits in 9th. This would be especially bad for Dallas as Boston owns the team's first round pick for the Rondo trade. The Mavericks might catch a break with scheduling as two of the team's last three games are against the Clippers and Spurs, teams that likely will be resting starters.

    Utah Jazz

    Utah gets three of its last five games at home and two are against the Nuggets and Lakers (below .500 teams). Outside of Memphis and Portland, the Jazz have the best chance of playing past the 82nd game of the season.

    Houston Rockets

    From Western Conference runner-up last season to bubble team this year. Houston has been inconsistent and the uneven play might cost them. Wednesday's game against Dallas is a must win. After that it is four cupcakes (Sacramento is the best team they will face and the Kings are 15 games under .500) for the Rockets. The soft schedule makes the Rockets slight favorites for the 8th seed (70.8 percent compared to 63.3 percent) over Dallas.

    2016 NBA Playoff Probabilities

    Team Playoff% Conf. Quarters Conf. Semis Conf. Finals Finals
    Golden State Warriors 100.0 97.4 55.8 46.2 41.8
    San Antonio Spurs 100.0 97.9 43.5 38.1 35.1
    Cleveland Cavaliers 100.0 86.7 60.5 44.3 8.3
    Oklahoma City Thunder 100.0 89.4 61.7 12.2 8.2
    Los Angeles Clippers 100.0 79.4 31.0 3.1 1.7
    Atlanta Hawks 100.0 61.2 36.0 16.0 1.7
    Toronto Raptors 100.0 69.6 24.0 13.6 1.4
    Boston Celtics 100.0 48.3 22.4 8.1 0.7
    Charlotte Hornets 100.0 44.8 20.2 6.7 0.5
    Miami Heat 100.0 45.8 20.8 7.1 0.4
    Indiana Pacers 94.8 28.1 11.8 3.4 0.2
    Houston Rockets 70.8 6.3 1.8 0.1 0.1
    Portland Trail Blazers 99.0 17.8 3.8 0.1 0.0
    Memphis Grizzlies 88.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
    Detroit Pistons 83.1 12.5 3.4 0.7 0.0
    Utah Jazz 78.1 6.5 1.6 0.1 0.0
    Dallas Mavericks 63.3 3.4 0.6 0.0 0.0
    Chicago Bulls 21.2 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
    Washington Wizards 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Sacramento Kings 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Phoenix Suns 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Philadelphia 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Orlando Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    New York Knicks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    New Orleans Pelicans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Minnesota Timberwolves 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Milwaukee Bucks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Los Angeles Lakers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Denver Nuggets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Brooklyn Nets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

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