New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    NBA Playoff Value (03/04/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    NBA Playoff Odds – finding value among the postseason hopefuls. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.



    Technically, the Atlanta Hawks are the only team to have clinched a playoff berth. However, oddsmakers believe only a handful of teams are truly competing for the final spots in the postseason.

    Below we look for value in the odds for playoff hopefuls to make or miss the postseason. We utilize our NBA Playoff Probabilities to find the likelihood of a given team making the playoffs.

    To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to make the playoffs and compare that to our projected odds to reach the postseason. For example, Miami is listed at +125 (5/4) to make the playoffs, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Heat they would need to reach the postseason 44.4% of the time (which is 4/(5 + 4)) of the time. We project Miami to reach the playoffs 45.8% of the time, meaning there is slight value in placing a bet at +125 odds.

    Brooklyn Nets

    Odds (miss the playoffs): +100, Implied Chance: 50.0%, Projected Chance: 81.7%

    If the postseason started today, Brooklyn would be the eighth seed in the East. The Nets have a precarious grasp on the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference holding a tiebreaker over Charlotte and with just a half game lead over Indiana.

    Brooklyn is well below .500 and ranks as the fourth worst team in our Power Rankings, below average in every offensive and defensive efficiency category. The Nets are projected to finish ninth in the East.

    New Orleans Pelicans

    Odds (miss the playoffs): -500, Implied Chance: 83.3%, Projected Chance: 96.6%

    The Pelicans are one game back of Oklahoma City in the chase for the eighth seed in the Western Conference. A single game does not seem like much of a difference but there is a large talent gap between the two clubs, which should help the Thunder clinch the final playoff spot. Speaking of OKC…

    Oklahoma City Thunder

    Odds (make the playoffs): -500, Implied Chance: 83.3%, Projected Chance: 91.9%

    If you are going to make a future bet, why not double down by wagering that the Pelican will miss the playoffs and the Thunder will make it? Oklahoma City is third in our Power Rankings, one of just four teams that rank in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Thunder are expecting Russell Westbrook to return to action this week and Kevin Durant is being evaluated for his return from a foot injury this week.

    Additional value bets (make the playoffs): Celtics, Pistons and Heat.

    Odds to make the 2015 NBA Playoffs

    Team Make the Playoffs Odds Needed Proj. Odds
    Boston Celtics +300 25.0% 31.9%
    Brooklyn Nets -140 58.3% 18.3%
    Charlotte Hornets +250 28.6% 25.5%
    Detroit Pistons +600 14.3% 21.7%
    Indiana Pacers -150 60.0% 56.9%
    Miami Heat +125 44.4% 45.8%
    New Orleans Pelicans +300 25.0% 3.4%
    Oklahoma City Thunder -500 83.3% 91.9%
    Phoenix Suns +1100 8.3% 6.0%

    Odds to miss the 2015 NBA Playoffs

    Team Miss the Playoffs Odds Needed Proj. Odds
    Boston Celtics -500 83.3% 68.1%
    Brooklyn Nets +100 50.0% 81.7%
    Charlotte Hornets -400 80.0% 74.5%
    Detroit Pistons -1000 90.9% 78.3%
    Indiana Pacers +110 47.6% 43.1%
    Miami Heat -175 63.6% 54.2%
    New Orleans Pelicans -500 83.3% 96.6%
    Oklahoma City Thunder +300 25.0% 8.1%
    Phoenix Suns -3000 96.8% 94.0%


    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    NBA Playoff Probabilities (03/09/15)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    NBA Playoff Probabilities (03/02/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    03/27/2017 Highlight: NHL profits continue to roll right along, as the Predictalator has cashed in on nine of 12 "normal" or better positions in March. The Predictalator has now amassed an incredible 45-28 (61.6%) on all "normal" or better money lines, puck lines, and totals this season, totaling $499 in total profits for a ?$50 bettor.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB Win Totals - Over/Under Picks
    We take a look at the 2017 MLB over/under team season win totals. Highlighted, "normal" or better MLB Win Total Picks are 54-19 all-time. See free picks on the Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies and more.

    Updated Bracket Odds - Final Four
    The Predictalator simulates the Final Four 50,000 times to see how likely each remaining team is to win the NCAA Tournament

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com