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    GameChangers (04/28/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    A look at highlights from the most recent game from each NBA Playoff series utilizing Live ScoreCaster.



    Live ScoreCaster allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game. Live ScoreCaster is totally free and available at PredictionMachine.com and for download on iTunes.

    After each NBA Playoff game we breakdown some highlights from the Live projections throughout each game. Click each matchup to view the Live ScoreCaster chart that tells the story of that game.

    Trail Blazers vs. Raptors

    Portland rallied to beat the Rockets 123-120 in overtime to take a 3-1 series lead. It was the third game in the series to be decided in overtime.

    The largest swing in expected win probability occurred at the end of regulation. With Portland trailing by two and less than a minute left, there was a wild scramble for possession. The Trail Blazers corralled the ball and Mo Williams hit a three pointer to give Portland the lead. The Trail Blazers expected win probability increased from 35 percent to 66 percent.

    The play only happened because a reach-in foul was not called on Damian Lillard. In the replay Jeremy Lin gets the defensive rebound and begins to take the ball up court only for Lillard to commit what looked like a reach-in foul. The contact was enough to allow Mo Williams to steal the ball.

    Had a foul been called, Lin gets two free throws to make it a two possession game. If Lin makes both, the Rockets lead 106-102 and Houston's expected win probability increases from 65 percent to 79 percent.

    Raptors vs. Nets

    Toronto blew a 17 point lead but the Raptor's defense shut down the Nets in the final six minutes. Toronto snapped a 13 game road playoff losing streak and evened the series at two games apiece.

    Brooklyn was 77 percent likely to win with a four point lead and just over six minutes remaining. The Nets did not score a field goal the rest of the game.

    A two play sequence late in the game solidified the win for the Raptors. With Toronto leading by four points, Paul Pierce was called for a charge. On the ensuing possession, Kyle Lowry hit a floating jumper over Kevin Garnett to give Toronto a six point lead. The Raptors expected win probability increased from 75 percent to 93 percent.

    Had Pierce not been called for a charge but instead a blocking foul had been called on the Raptors, Pierce has an opportunity to make it a one possession game with two free throws. In a one possession game the Nets expected win probability increases from 7 percent to 32 percent.

    Wizards vs. Bulls

    No Nene, no problem. Washington cruised to an easy victory and a 3-1 series lead without the team's “X-factor”. The Wizards started the game on a 14-0 run and never looked back spending much of the second half 99 percent likely to win.

    Chicago's highest expected win probability was 44 percent, before the game began.

    Warriors vs. Clippers

    Stephen Curry made a career playoff high seven three pointers and scored a game high 33 points. Golden State rolled to a 118-97 victory to even the series at two games apiece.

    The Warriors led by 15 after the first, 18 after the second and in a postseason that has seen many close games and overtimes, Golden State was over 80 percent likely to win for the entire second half.


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