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    GameChangers (04/29/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    A look at highlights from the most recent game from each NBA Playoff series utilizing Live ScoreCaster.



    Live ScoreCaster allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game. Live ScoreCaster is totally free and available at PredictionMachine.com and for download on iTunes.

    After each NBA Playoff game we breakdown some highlights from the Live projections throughout each game. Click each matchup to view the Live ScoreCaster chart that tells the story of that game.

    Spurs vs. Mavericks

    Top-seeded San Antonio held on to beat Dallas 93-89 to even the series at two games apiece. The Spurs got a go-ahead three pointer from Boris Diaw and Manu Ginobili hit free throws down the stretch to ice the game.

    A turning point came late in the fourth with San Antonio trailing, 83-82, for the first time since early in the second quarter. DeJuan Blair was ejected for kicking Tiago Splitter in the back of the head after being called for a foul when the two got tangled on the ground. Ginobili converted the technical free throw and Splitter made both foul shots to give San Antonio an 85-83 lead. The Spurs expected win probability increased from 49 percent to 66 percent. Dallas never led again.

    What could have been…
    Ginobili missed a free throw that could have given San Antonio a three point lead with less than ten seconds remaining. On the ensuing Dallas possession, Monta Ellis had a driving layup rim out. Had Ellis's shot fallen and the game goes into overtime, Dallas would have been 51 percent likely to win.

    Heat vs. Bobcats

    The Bobcats spent 40 seconds early in the third quarter as the projected winners. Then Miami outscored Charlotte 28-13 and the Heat's expected win probability increased from 48 percent to 92 percent.

    The two-time defending NBA champions are the first team to punch a ticket to the second round.

    Hawks vs. Pacers

    Atlanta used a 24-4 run to start the second quarter to blow the game wide open. The Hawks' expected win probability increased from 24 percent at the start of the game to 87 percent at the end of the half. The top-seeded Pacers are on the verge of elimination.
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