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    GameChangers (06/09/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    A look at highlights from the most recent NBA Playoff game utilizing Live ScoreCaster.



    Live ScoreCaster allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game. Live ScoreCaster is totally free and available at PredictionMachine.com and for download on iTunes.

    After each NBA Finals game we'll breakdown some highlights from the Live projections throughout each game. Click each matchup to view Live ScoreCaster chart that tells the story of that game.

    Spurs vs. Heat

    LeBron James avoided cramps, led all scorers with 35 points and Miami won Game 2 to even the NBA Finals at a game apiece. The Heat have won thirteen straight games following a loss in the postseason.

    GameChanger for the Spurs – With 6:43 left in the fourth quarter, Spurs leading 87-85, Tony Parker is elbowed by Mario Chalmers drawing a flagrant foul. Parker misses both free throws, the Spurs retain possession, Tim Duncan is fouled while shooting and then misses both of his free throws. Had Parker or Duncan made both of their free throws the Spurs become 74 percent likely to win leading 89-85. In the best case scenario Parker makes the first, misses the second, then Duncan makes both free throws to extend San Antonio's lead to 90-85, the Spurs would have been 81 percent likely to win. Instead, following four missed free throws, LeBron makes a three pointer to give Miami an 88-87 lead and the Heat become 51 percent likely to win.

    Additional Game Notes:
    • Miami became the projected winner for the first time with 3:49 left in the third quarter following a LeBron jumper that gave Miami a 67-64 lead.
    • The largest play-to-play swing in the game occurred with 1:19 left in the fourth quarter. Chris Bosh makes a three pointer to give Miami a 95-93 lead, the Heat's expected win probability increases from 40 percent to 64 percent.
    • Miami was only the projected winner for 9:03 minutes (18.9%) of Game 2.
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