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    GameChangers (06/11/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    A look at highlights from the most recent NBA Final game utilizing Live ScoreCaster.



    Live ScoreCaster allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game. Live ScoreCaster is totally free and available at PredictionMachine.com and for download on iTunes.

    After each NBA Final game we breakdown some highlights from the Live projections throughout each game. Click each matchup to view Live ScoreCaster chart that tells the story of that game.

    Spurs vs. Heat

    Kawhi Leonard scored a career-high 29 points and the Spurs defeated the Heat 111-92 to take a 2-1 series lead. San Antonio set a Finals record shooting 75.8 percent in the first half. The Spurs made 19 of their first 21 shots.

    Miami made a run in the third quarter outscoring San Antonio 25-15, yet the Heat only had a 23 percent chance of winning entering the fourth. By how many points would the Heat have had to outscore the Spurs in the third quarter in order to be the projected winner?

    The two time defending champions would have had to outscore San Antonio 33-15 (score at the end of third 86-83) and the Heat would have only been 50.8 percent likely to win.

    Additional Game Notes:
    • Miami cut San Antonio's lead to seven points in the third quarter, the Heat became 35 percent likely to win, Miami's highest expected win probability of the entire second half.
    • The Spurs were the projected winner for 42:10 minutes or 87.8 percent of the game.

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