New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    NBA Futures (04/03/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    In the midst of the playoff push, we simulated the most likely NBA Playoffs 50,000 times to find value in basketball futures. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.


     
    To setup our NBA Playoffs we used our rest of season projections to determine which teams would make the postseason. Using this method, the Hawks usurp the Knicks for the 8th seed in the East. In the West, the Grizzlies and the Mavericks flip flop while the Suns are left out of the postseason despite being in a three-way tie for a playoff spot.
     
    After 50,000 simulations of our most likely NBA Playoffs, the Indiana Pacers win the NBA Championship. The Pacers win 28.0% of all simulated tournaments. In the most likely NBA Finals, Indiana defeats the San Antonio Spurs.
     
    To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the NBA Championship and compare that to our projected odds that they win the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy. For example, Miami is listed at 9/4 to win the championship, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Heat they would need to win it all 30.8% (which is 4/(9+4)) of the time. We project Miami to win it all 17.2% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at 9/4 odds.
     
    Indiana Pacers (53-23, Clinched Central Division)
    Current odds: 5/1, Odds needed in order to place a wager: 16.7%
    Indiana wins the NBA Finals 28.0% of the time
     
    Fact - the Pacers have lost four of their last six games and are below .500 since the beginning of March. Fact - Indiana’s offense has struggled to score, topping 80 points twice in the last seven games. Yet Indiana is still our most likely champion. The Pacers are second in our Power Rankings and No. 1 in defensive efficiency. Indiana’s biggest advantage, the Pacers are in the Eastern Conference. Ten of the top 13 teams in our rankings hail from the Western Conference. 
     
    Los Angeles Clippers (54-22, Clinched the Pacific Division)
    Current odds: 8/1, Odds needed in order to place a wager: 11.1%
    San Antonio wins the NBA Finals 11.4% of the time
     
    The Clippers have clinched the Pacific meaning they will have home court in the first round of the playoffs. Los Angeles is still gunning for the 2nd seed, just 1.5 games behind Oklahoma City. The Clippers are a balanced team ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
     
    Additional value bets (long shots): Rockets 18/1 and Raptors 75/1
     
    Below are the odds for each team to win the NBA Championship. Plus, odds needed to place a wager and our projected odds for each team.
     
    Team NBA Championship Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
    Heat 9/4 30.8% 17.2%
    Spurs 3/1 25.0% 16.1%
    Thunder 9/2 18.2% 13.1%
    Pacers 5/1 16.7% 28.0%
    Clippers 8/1 11.1% 11.4%
    Rockets 18/1 5.3% 6.5%
    Warriors 20/1 4.8% 2.2%
    Nets 33/1 2.9% 0.2%
    Trailblazers 40/1 2.4% 0.8%
    Bulls 50/1 2.0% 0.7%
    Grizzlies 66/1 1.5% 0.1%
    Raptors 75/1 1.3% 2.4%
    Mavericks 100/1 1.0% 1.0%
    Wizards 150/1 0.7% 0.3%
    Bobcats 300/1 0.3% 0.0%
    Hawks 500/1 0.2% 0.0%
     
     
    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    Two teams, one playoff spot (04/14/14)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    NBA Trade Deadline (02/21/2014)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    05/10/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now into its second month, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides and totals continue to remain extremely profitable despite a recent run of bad variance to start May. The Predictalator's record of 272-250 on sides and totals this season doesn't look all that impressive, but that's because the simulations have sided with underdogs more often than favorites. Through May 9, the Predictalator has generated $547 for an average $50 bettor. "Normal" or better sides, totals, and run lines (our strongest edges) are 14-10 (+$118) season-to-date.

    The NBA Playoffs continue on in the Second Round and the Predictalator has been profitable on both sides and totals in this year's postseason. Despite being just 16-19 (45.7%) ATS in the NBA Postseason, the Predictalator has generated $46 of total profit, which is a testament to our play value recommendations. Totals have been the real moneymaker in this postseason though, as all playabale totals are 19-15 (55.9%) for a solid profit of $168.

    The NHL Playoffs have featured some very tight lines posted by oddsmakers, which has led to lower volume for the Predictalator. That hasn't let to less profits though. The Predictalator has posted 10 NHL positions (ML, O/U, or PL) in May, going 8-2 (80%) on those positions for a profit of $87. It is rare to find a big edge in the NHL this late in the year, but the Predictalator continues to chip away on small edges to provide solid returns.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB - The So What?
    We use 50,000 simulations of the rest of the MLB season to analyze major personnel changes, including the returns of Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays lineup.

    MLB Futures Picks - Who to bet for the World Series
    Each Monday during the 2017 season, we will review free MLB Futures value picks.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com